Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
25
Down 68%
1 arb excluded
$2.1K
-$311.6
Smart Money Signal
17 of 25 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 89.6¢ | $777.07 | $604.98 | -$172.1 | 56% 14628-11513 (26141) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Downavg 67.9¢ | $487.32 | $422.35 | -$64.97 | 57% 10441-7832 (18273) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.1¢ | $402.05 | $410 | +$7.95 | 93% 23917-1795 (25712) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 67.9¢ | $116.29 | $171.2 | +$54.91 | 57% 71205-54305 (125510) |
TH thesidehustle | Downavg 77¢ | $139.16 | $120.88 | -$18.28 | 54% 11065-9443 (20508) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 78.9¢ | $91.47 | $86.05 | -$5.42 | 66% 126346-65068 (191414) |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.8¢ | $58.98 | $61.23 | +$2.25 | 54% 15410-13286 (28696) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35¢ | $28.48 | — | -$28.48 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.8¢ | $30.5 | $61.23 | +$30.73 | |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 89.3¢ | $64.18 | $50.58 | -$13.6 | 64% 58676-33266 (91942) |
GO GoodRecipientCTR<$100 | Upavg 38.3¢ | $30.64 | — | -$30.64 | 43% 624-812 (1436) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 86¢ | $34.4 | $40 | +$5.6 | 64% 40299-23045 (63344) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 62.3¢ | $24.25 | $21 | -$3.25 | 55% 45345-37754 (83099) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $20 | $40 | +$20 | 58% 51106-37241 (88347) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $18.75 | $25 | +$6.25 | 56% 58298-44982 (103280) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Upavg 41.4¢ | $13.68 | — | -$13.68 | 50% 7894-7920 (15814) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 79.9¢ | $37.75 | $16.99 | -$1.06 | 64% 23928-13193 (37121) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 64.3¢ | $8.36 | $13 | +$4.64 | 62% 43949-26970 (70919) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $9.45 | $10.61 | +$1.16 | 65% 4122-2245 (6367) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 44¢ | $6.95 | — | -$6.95 | 55% 18043-14638 (32681) |
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $7 | $14 | +$7 | 46% 455-525 (980) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $5.09 | $5.1 | +$0.01 | 59% 62446-43593 (106039) |
IM imoore-40CTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $4.9 | — | -$4.9 | 75% 62-21 (83) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 22.2¢ | $3.5 | — | -$3.5 | 52% 90753-85289 (176042) |
AS asabovesobelow2<$100 | Downavg 66.4¢ | $4.75 | $5.27 | +$0.52 | 69% 1649-752 (2401) |
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100 | Upavg 33¢ | $3.81 | — | -$3.81 | 54% 14509-12345 (26854) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 4.2¢ | $23.17 | — | -$23.17 | 63% 52154-31006 (83160) |
Invested
$777.07
Value
$604.98
PnL
-$172.1
Record
56%
14628-11513 (26141)
Invested
$487.32
Value
$422.35
PnL
-$64.97
Record
57%
10441-7832 (18273)
Invested
$402.05
Value
$410
PnL
+$7.95
Record
93%
23917-1795 (25712)
Invested
$116.29
Value
$171.2
PnL
+$54.91
Record
57%
71205-54305 (125510)
Invested
$139.16
Value
$120.88
PnL
-$18.28
Record
54%
11065-9443 (20508)
Invested
$91.47
Value
$86.05
PnL
-$5.42
Record
66%
126346-65068 (191414)
Invested
$58.98
Value
$61.23
PnL
+$2.25
Record
54%
15410-13286 (28696)
Both legs:
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$64.18
Value
$50.58
PnL
-$13.6
Record
64%
58676-33266 (91942)
Invested
$30.64
Value
—
PnL
-$30.64
Record
43%
624-812 (1436)
ohioism<$100Invested
$34.4
Value
$40
PnL
+$5.6
Record
64%
40299-23045 (63344)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$24.25
Value
$21
PnL
-$3.25
Record
55%
45345-37754 (83099)
Invested
$20
Value
$40
PnL
+$20
Record
58%
51106-37241 (88347)
Invested
$18.75
Value
$25
PnL
+$6.25
Record
56%
58298-44982 (103280)
Invested
$13.68
Value
—
PnL
-$13.68
Record
50%
7894-7920 (15814)
Invested
$37.75
Value
$16.99
PnL
-$1.06
Record
64%
23928-13193 (37121)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$8.36
Value
$13
PnL
+$4.64
Record
62%
43949-26970 (70919)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$9.45
Value
$10.61
PnL
+$1.16
Record
65%
4122-2245 (6367)
Invested
$6.95
Value
—
PnL
-$6.95
Record
55%
18043-14638 (32681)
Invested
$7
Value
$14
PnL
+$7
Record
46%
455-525 (980)
Invested
$5.09
Value
$5.1
PnL
+$0.01
Record
59%
62446-43593 (106039)
Invested
$4.9
Value
—
PnL
-$4.9
Record
75%
62-21 (83)
Invested
$3.5
Value
—
PnL
-$3.5
Record
52%
90753-85289 (176042)
Invested
$4.75
Value
$5.27
PnL
+$0.52
Record
69%
1649-752 (2401)
Invested
$3.81
Value
—
PnL
-$3.81
Record
54%
14509-12345 (26854)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$23.17
Value
—
PnL
-$23.17
Record
63%
52154-31006 (83160)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
CrouchPredictions
Down — $604.98
trdyugiolkw
Down — $422.35
hoodquant
Down — $410
uninformedfloww
Down — $171.2
thesidehustle
Down — $120.88
asdaefef
Down — $86.05
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $50.58
GoodRecipient
CTRUp — $0
ohioism
Down — $40