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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 48% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

21

Down 48%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$206.16

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 21 top traders (48%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down10 traders
Total Value$1.1K
Total Shares1,145
Combined PnL+$25.31
Up11 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares634
Combined PnL-$231.46
Down — 48%Up — 52%
TR
trdyugiolkw
Down

Invested

$462.08

Value

$384.21

PnL

-$77.87

Record

57%

10441-7832 (18273)

AS
aswfadq1555ARB<$100
Down

Invested

$288.71

Value

$285.48

PnL

-$3.22

Record

54%

15410-13286 (28696)

Both legs:

Up$130.3127.5¢-$130.31
Down$158.455.5¢+$127.09
0X
0x50f7
Down

Invested

$278.45

Value

$278.73

PnL

+$0.28

Record

59%

62446-43593 (106039)

CR
CrouchPredictionsARB<$100
Up

Invested

$203.69

Value

$82.48

PnL

-$121.2

Record

56%

14628-11513 (26141)

Both legs:

Up$153.5336.7¢-$153.53
Down$50.1660.8¢+$32.32
0X
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down

Invested

$125.83

Value

$202.99

PnL

+$77.17

Record

58%

38113-27312 (65425)

WZ
wzbbbCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$62.44

Value

—

PnL

-$62.44

Record

56%

8103-6239 (14342)

TH
thesidehustle<$100
Down

Invested

$88.43

Value

$74.63

PnL

-$13.8

Record

54%

11065-9443 (20508)

AA
aaa221<$100
Down

Invested

$75.25

Value

$46.25

PnL

-$9.8

Record

64%

23928-13193 (37121)

PB
PBot-6CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$43.33

Value

—

PnL

-$43.33

Record

58%

51106-37241 (88347)

AS
asdaefef<$100
Down

Invested

$47.17

Value

$52.36

PnL

+$5.19

Record

66%

126346-65068 (191414)

ohioism<$100
Down

Invested

$28.17

Value

$53.69

PnL

+$25.52

Record

64%

40299-23045 (63344)

DE
devonpollCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$31.97

Value

—

PnL

-$25.33

Record

51%

20217-19360 (39577)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$31.76

Value

—

PnL

-$31.76

Record

55%

45345-37754 (83099)

0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100
Down

Invested

$18.25

Value

$25

PnL

+$6.75

Record

58%

60750-44342 (105092)

AtomforgeCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$17.21

Value

—

PnL

-$17.21

Record

65%

4122-2245 (6367)

0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$15.11

Value

—

PnL

-$15.11

Record

56%

58298-44982 (103280)

BE
berlinskies<$100
Down

Invested

$9.99

Value

$18.5

PnL

+$8.51

Record

58%

5849-4292 (10141)

AS
asabovesobelow2CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$8.75

Value

—

PnL

-$8.75

Record

69%

1649-752 (2401)

GO
GoodRecipient<$100
Down

Invested

$5.26

Value

$8.62

PnL

+$3.36

Record

43%

624-812 (1436)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$14.33

Value

—

PnL

-$14.33

Record

63%

52154-31006 (83160)

KA
Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$8.6

Value

—

PnL

-$8.6

Record

55%

18043-14638 (32681)

DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$4.56

Value

—

PnL

-$4.56

Record

52%

90753-85289 (176042)

AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

66%

112325-58945 (171270)

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Market Info

Condition ID
0x13b06f80...c68a0b
Slug
btc-updown-15m-1793448000

Traders in this Market

TR

trdyugiolkw

Down — $384.21

-$77.87
AS

aswfadq1555

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$3.22
0X

0x50f7

Down — $278.73

+$0.28
CR

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$121.2
0X

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $202.99

+$77.17
WZ

wzbbb

CTR

Up — $0

-$62.44
TH

thesidehustle

Down — $74.63

-$13.8
AA

aaa221

Down — $46.25

-$9.8
PB

PBot-6

CTR

Up — $0

-$43.33
AS

asdaefef

Down — $52.36

+$5.19
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