Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
23
Up 74%
2 arb excluded
$3.2K
$132.62
Smart Money Signal
17 of 23 top traders (74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TR trdyugiolkw | Upavg 83.6¢ | $690.87 | $735.56 | +$44.69 | 57% 10441-7832 (18273) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 84.4¢ | $681.8 | $664.88 | -$16.92 | 56% 14628-11513 (26141) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.8¢ | $288.77 | $292.13 | +$3.37 | 93% 23917-1795 (25712) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 65¢ | $172.21 | $246.75 | +$74.54 | 55% 50677-41281 (91958) |
TH thesidehustle | Upavg 91.9¢ | $181.13 | $178.81 | -$2.32 | 54% 11065-9443 (20508) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Upavg 48.7¢ | $139.37 | $199 | +$59.63 | 56% 8103-6239 (14342) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.7¢ | $96.95 | $199 | +$102.05 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 36.6¢ | $42.42 | — | -$42.42 | |
LI Little-big | Upavg 48.4¢ | $145.13 | $300 | +$154.87 | 35% 18929-35926 (54855) |
DE devonpoll | Upavg 88.7¢ | $129.95 | $137.48 | +$14.1 | 51% 20217-19360 (39577) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 95.2¢ | $88.73 | $93.16 | +$4.43 | 74% 102692-36455 (139147) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 91¢ | $74.3 | $72.99 | -$1.31 | 52% 90753-85289 (176042) |
 wowitsamazingARB<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $60 | $73.53 | +$13.53 | 57% 12715-9420 (22135) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51¢ | $37.5 | $73.53 | +$36.03 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 37.4¢ | $22.5 | — | -$22.5 | |
AS aswfadq1555CTR<$100 | Downavg 14.8¢ | $95.51 | — | -$95.51 | 54% 15410-13286 (28696) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $45.78 | $45.83 | +$0.05 | 59% 62446-43593 (106039) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 81.5¢ | $38.58 | $47.33 | +$8.75 | 56% 58298-44982 (103280) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 77¢ | $29.79 | $37.25 | +$7.46 | 66% 126346-65068 (191414) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $44.78 | $37.15 | -$7.63 | 55% 45345-37754 (83099) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 91.4¢ | $60.57 | $36.04 | +$1.95 | 64% 23928-13193 (37121) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $26.5 | — | -$26.5 | 58% 38113-27312 (65425) |
GO GoodRecipientCTR<$100 | Downavg 11¢ | $5.5 | — | -$5.5 | 43% 624-812 (1436) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 88¢ | $5.5 | $6.25 | +$0.75 | 62% 43949-26970 (70919) |
IM imoore-40<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $4.9 | $5 | +$0.1 | 75% 62-21 (83) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 9.4¢ | $25.21 | — | -$25.21 | 63% 52154-31006 (83160) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 87¢ | $4.35 | $5 | +$0.65 | 64% 40299-23045 (63344) |
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819CTR<$100 | Downavg 10¢ | $2 | — | -$2 | 46% 455-525 (980) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $0.2 | — | -$0.2 | 66% 112325-58945 (171270) |
Invested
$690.87
Value
$735.56
PnL
+$44.69
Record
57%
10441-7832 (18273)
Invested
$681.8
Value
$664.88
PnL
-$16.92
Record
56%
14628-11513 (26141)
Invested
$288.77
Value
$292.13
PnL
+$3.37
Record
93%
23917-1795 (25712)
Invested
$172.21
Value
$246.75
PnL
+$74.54
Record
55%
50677-41281 (91958)
Invested
$181.13
Value
$178.81
PnL
-$2.32
Record
54%
11065-9443 (20508)
Invested
$139.37
Value
$199
PnL
+$59.63
Record
56%
8103-6239 (14342)
Both legs:
Invested
$145.13
Value
$300
PnL
+$154.87
Record
35%
18929-35926 (54855)
Invested
$129.95
Value
$137.48
PnL
+$14.1
Record
51%
20217-19360 (39577)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$88.73
Value
$93.16
PnL
+$4.43
Record
74%
102692-36455 (139147)
Invested
$74.3
Value
$72.99
PnL
-$1.31
Record
52%
90753-85289 (176042)
wowitsamazingARB<$100Invested
$60
Value
$73.53
PnL
+$13.53
Record
57%
12715-9420 (22135)
Both legs:
Invested
$95.51
Value
—
PnL
-$95.51
Record
54%
15410-13286 (28696)
Invested
$45.78
Value
$45.83
PnL
+$0.05
Record
59%
62446-43593 (106039)
Invested
$38.58
Value
$47.33
PnL
+$8.75
Record
56%
58298-44982 (103280)
Invested
$29.79
Value
$37.25
PnL
+$7.46
Record
66%
126346-65068 (191414)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$44.78
Value
$37.15
PnL
-$7.63
Record
55%
45345-37754 (83099)
Invested
$60.57
Value
$36.04
PnL
+$1.95
Record
64%
23928-13193 (37121)
Invested
$26.5
Value
—
PnL
-$26.5
Record
58%
38113-27312 (65425)
Invested
$5.5
Value
—
PnL
-$5.5
Record
43%
624-812 (1436)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$5.5
Value
$6.25
PnL
+$0.75
Record
62%
43949-26970 (70919)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.1
Record
75%
62-21 (83)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$25.21
Value
—
PnL
-$25.21
Record
63%
52154-31006 (83160)
ohioism<$100Invested
$4.35
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.65
Record
64%
40299-23045 (63344)
Invested
$2
Value
—
PnL
-$2
Record
46%
455-525 (980)
Invested
$0.2
Value
—
PnL
-$0.2
Record
66%
112325-58945 (171270)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
trdyugiolkw
Up — $735.56
CrouchPredictions
Up — $664.88
hoodquant
Up — $292.13
mo-money
Up — $246.75
thesidehustle
Up — $178.81
wzbbb
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Little-big
Up — $300
devonpoll
Up — $137.48
BoneOhio
Up — $93.16
dvasdkasodk
Up — $72.99