Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
14
Up 86%
3 arb excluded
$1.4K
$132.27
Smart Money Signal
12 of 14 top traders (86%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 89.1¢ | $358.18 | $350.8 | -$7.39 | 64% 58661-33254 (91915) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 9.7¢ | $45.48 | — | -$45.48 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 89.1¢ | $312.71 | $350.8 | +$38.09 | |
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100 | Upavg 77.5¢ | $413.73 | $426.54 | +$12.81 | 57% 10437-7825 (18262) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 77.5¢ | $330.55 | $426.54 | +$95.99 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 22.1¢ | $83.18 | — | -$83.18 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.9¢ | $156.9 | $158.59 | +$1.69 | 93% 23898-1792 (25690) |
TH thesidehustleARB<$100 | Upavg 90¢ | $106 | $106.34 | +$0.34 | 54% 11047-9434 (20481) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 90¢ | $95.68 | $106.34 | +$10.66 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 21.5¢ | $10.32 | — | -$10.32 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 50.1¢ | $60.58 | $121 | +$60.42 | 58% 38095-27304 (65399) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 75¢ | $68.54 | $91.4 | +$22.86 | 51% 20209-19351 (39560) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 10.9¢ | $7.49 | — | -$7.49 | 63% 52135-30979 (83114) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 77.5¢ | $38.75 | $50 | +$11.25 | 64% 40280-23040 (63320) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Upavg 49.5¢ | $19.8 | $40 | +$20.2 | 58% 51093-37229 (88322) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 64¢ | $16 | $25 | +$9 | 56% 58279-44978 (103257) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 70.6¢ | $14.98 | $21.23 | +$6.25 | 55% 45212-37592 (82804) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 70.6¢ | $13 | $18.41 | +$5.41 | 66% 126299-65048 (191347) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 7¢ | $1.26 | — | -$1.26 | 52% 90722-85259 (175981) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 83.4¢ | $12.1 | $14.52 | +$2.42 | 61% 95344-60180 (155524) |
IM imoore-40<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $4.9 | $5 | +$0.1 | 75% 62-21 (83) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 72¢ | $3.6 | $5 | +$1.4 | 65% 125663-67274 (192937) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 87.5¢ | $18.08 | $2.78 | +$0.02 | 64% 23872-13164 (37036) |
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$358.18
Value
$350.8
PnL
-$7.39
Record
64%
58661-33254 (91915)
Both legs:
Invested
$413.73
Value
$426.54
PnL
+$12.81
Record
57%
10437-7825 (18262)
Both legs:
Invested
$156.9
Value
$158.59
PnL
+$1.69
Record
93%
23898-1792 (25690)
Invested
$106
Value
$106.34
PnL
+$0.34
Record
54%
11047-9434 (20481)
Both legs:
Invested
$60.58
Value
$121
PnL
+$60.42
Record
58%
38095-27304 (65399)
Invested
$68.54
Value
$91.4
PnL
+$22.86
Record
51%
20209-19351 (39560)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$7.49
Value
—
PnL
-$7.49
Record
63%
52135-30979 (83114)
ohioism<$100Invested
$38.75
Value
$50
PnL
+$11.25
Record
64%
40280-23040 (63320)
Invested
$19.8
Value
$40
PnL
+$20.2
Record
58%
51093-37229 (88322)
Invested
$16
Value
$25
PnL
+$9
Record
56%
58279-44978 (103257)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$14.98
Value
$21.23
PnL
+$6.25
Record
55%
45212-37592 (82804)
Invested
$13
Value
$18.41
PnL
+$5.41
Record
66%
126299-65048 (191347)
Invested
$1.26
Value
—
PnL
-$1.26
Record
52%
90722-85259 (175981)
Invested
$12.1
Value
$14.52
PnL
+$2.42
Record
61%
95344-60180 (155524)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.1
Record
75%
62-21 (83)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.4
Record
65%
125663-67274 (192937)
Invested
$18.08
Value
$2.78
PnL
+$0.02
Record
64%
23872-13164 (37036)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
trdyugiolkw
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Up — $158.59
thesidehustle
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $121
devonpoll
Up — $91.4
UpandDownSyndrome
CTRDown — $0
ohioism
Up — $50
PBot-6
Up — $40
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Up — $25