Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
21
Down 86%
$2.3K
$148.54
Smart Money Signal
18 of 21 top traders (86%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 94.2¢ | $614.78 | $600.15 | +$7.43 | 64% 58572-33180 (91752) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Downavg 79.9¢ | $522.09 | $566.18 | +$44.09 | 57% 10432-7822 (18254) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.2¢ | $395.33 | $402.56 | +$7.23 | 93% 23873-1792 (25665) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 89.9¢ | $173.41 | $193 | +$19.58 | 55% 45212-37590 (82802) |
DV dvasdkasodk | Downavg 93.6¢ | $120.41 | $124.28 | +$3.86 | 52% 90691-85227 (175918) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 78.2¢ | $64.75 | $76.75 | +$12 | 54% 11039-9419 (20458) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 65.6¢ | $46.77 | $71.09 | +$24.32 | 58% 60720-44332 (105052) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 68.2¢ | $39.73 | $49.18 | +$9.45 | 66% 126252-65031 (191283) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 80.4¢ | $33.98 | $42.24 | +$8.26 | 61% 95305-60157 (155462) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $35.26 | $50 | +$14.74 | 58% 38081-27294 (65375) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 87¢ | $21.75 | $25 | +$3.25 | 64% 40270-23036 (63306) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 92.2¢ | $39.33 | $20.08 | +$0.36 | 64% 23828-13134 (36962) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 74¢ | $18.5 | $25 | +$6.5 | 56% 58267-44968 (103235) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 9.9¢ | $13.9 | — | -$7.15 | 51% 20197-19346 (39543) |
GO GoodRecipient<$100 | Downavg 86¢ | $8.6 | $10 | +$1.4 | 43% 618-806 (1424) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $7.25 | $10 | +$2.75 | 58% 51083-37220 (88303) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 58¢ | $6.38 | — | -$6.38 | 65% 125617-67257 (192874) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Downavg 87¢ | $4.55 | $5.23 | +$0.68 | 65% 4108-2237 (6345) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 12.6¢ | $4.63 | — | -$4.63 | 63% 52124-30942 (83066) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $2.58 | $3.04 | +$0.46 | 62% 43934-26954 (70888) |
AS asabovesobelow2<$100 | Downavg 87¢ | $2.25 | $2.59 | +$0.34 | 69% 1646-748 (2394) |
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$614.78
Value
$600.15
PnL
+$7.43
Record
64%
58572-33180 (91752)
Invested
$522.09
Value
$566.18
PnL
+$44.09
Record
57%
10432-7822 (18254)
Invested
$395.33
Value
$402.56
PnL
+$7.23
Record
93%
23873-1792 (25665)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$173.41
Value
$193
PnL
+$19.58
Record
55%
45212-37590 (82802)
Invested
$120.41
Value
$124.28
PnL
+$3.86
Record
52%
90691-85227 (175918)
Invested
$64.75
Value
$76.75
PnL
+$12
Record
54%
11039-9419 (20458)
Invested
$46.77
Value
$71.09
PnL
+$24.32
Record
58%
60720-44332 (105052)
Invested
$39.73
Value
$49.18
PnL
+$9.45
Record
66%
126252-65031 (191283)
Invested
$33.98
Value
$42.24
PnL
+$8.26
Record
61%
95305-60157 (155462)
Invested
$35.26
Value
$50
PnL
+$14.74
Record
58%
38081-27294 (65375)
ohioism<$100Invested
$21.75
Value
$25
PnL
+$3.25
Record
64%
40270-23036 (63306)
Invested
$39.33
Value
$20.08
PnL
+$0.36
Record
64%
23828-13134 (36962)
Invested
$18.5
Value
$25
PnL
+$6.5
Record
56%
58267-44968 (103235)
Invested
$13.9
Value
—
PnL
-$7.15
Record
51%
20197-19346 (39543)
Invested
$8.6
Value
$10
PnL
+$1.4
Record
43%
618-806 (1424)
Invested
$7.25
Value
$10
PnL
+$2.75
Record
58%
51083-37220 (88303)
Invested
$6.38
Value
—
PnL
-$6.38
Record
65%
125617-67257 (192874)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$4.55
Value
$5.23
PnL
+$0.68
Record
65%
4108-2237 (6345)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$4.63
Value
—
PnL
-$4.63
Record
63%
52124-30942 (83066)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$2.58
Value
$3.04
PnL
+$0.46
Record
62%
43934-26954 (70888)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$2.59
PnL
+$0.34
Record
69%
1646-748 (2394)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $600.15
trdyugiolkw
Down — $566.18
hoodquant
Down — $402.56
MayorMamdani
Down — $193
dvasdkasodk
Down — $124.28
thesidehustle
Down — $76.75
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $71.09
asdaefef
Down — $49.18
asidjasiodja
Down — $42.24
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $50