Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
24
Down 61%
1 arb excluded
$2.5K
-$10.37
Smart Money Signal
14 of 24 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$14.64 | 93% 23873-1792 (25665) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Downavg 56.3¢ | $634.31 | $585.95 | -$48.36 | 57% 10432-7822 (18254) |
TH thesidehustle | Downavg 63.2¢ | $138.82 | $140.8 | +$1.98 | 54% 11039-9419 (20458) |
 UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100 | Downavg 14.5¢ | $19.04 | $72.8 | +$53.76 | 63% 52124-30942 (83066) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 14.5¢ | $10.54 | $72.8 | +$62.26 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 7.5¢ | $8.5 | — | -$8.5 | |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $82.5 | $81.36 | +$11.38 | 65% 125617-67257 (192874) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 53.2¢ | $84.92 | $92 | +$7.08 | 64% 40270-23036 (63306) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 60.3¢ | $49.3 | $75 | +$25.7 | 56% 58267-44968 (103235) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 50.7¢ | $44.54 | $59.1 | +$14.56 | 61% 95305-60157 (155462) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 63.1¢ | $40.51 | $37.16 | -$3.35 | 52% 90691-85227 (175918) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 68.7¢ | $25.76 | — | -$25.76 | 66% 126252-65031 (191283) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 47.5¢ | $19 | — | -$19 | 58% 51083-37220 (88303) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $14.75 | $25 | +$10.25 | 58% 60720-44332 (105052) |
GO GoodRecipient<$100 | Downavg 61.5¢ | $12.3 | $20 | +$7.7 | 43% 618-806 (1424) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100 | Downavg 32¢ | $11.52 | $36 | +$24.48 | 73% 95038-35661 (130699) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 75.6¢ | $18.39 | — | -$18.39 | 55% 18041-14636 (32677) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 86¢ | $37.24 | $11.64 | -$10.5 | 64% 23828-13134 (36962) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 84¢ | $8.4 | — | -$8.4 | 55% 45212-37590 (82802) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $7.04 | $13.04 | +$6 | 58% 38081-27294 (65375) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 65¢ | $6.5 | — | -$6.5 | 62% 43934-26954 (70888) |
 AtomforgeCTR<$100 | Upavg 66¢ | $3.5 | — | -$3.5 | 65% 4108-2237 (6345) |
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100 | Upavg 64¢ | $2.97 | — | -$2.97 | 54% 14498-12337 (26835) |
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819<$100 | Downavg 28¢ | $5.6 | $20 | +$14.4 | 47% 455-521 (976) |
AS asabovesobelow2CTR<$100 | Upavg 66¢ | $1.75 | — | -$1.75 | 69% 1646-748 (2394) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 66% 112311-58899 (171210) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 75¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20197-19346 (39543) |
Invested
$1,249.95
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$14.64
Record
93%
23873-1792 (25665)
Invested
$634.31
Value
$585.95
PnL
-$48.36
Record
57%
10432-7822 (18254)
Invested
$138.82
Value
$140.8
PnL
+$1.98
Record
54%
11039-9419 (20458)
UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100Invested
$19.04
Value
$72.8
PnL
+$53.76
Record
63%
52124-30942 (83066)
Both legs:
Invested
$82.5
Value
$81.36
PnL
+$11.38
Record
65%
125617-67257 (192874)
ohioism<$100Invested
$84.92
Value
$92
PnL
+$7.08
Record
64%
40270-23036 (63306)
Invested
$49.3
Value
$75
PnL
+$25.7
Record
56%
58267-44968 (103235)
Invested
$44.54
Value
$59.1
PnL
+$14.56
Record
61%
95305-60157 (155462)
Invested
$40.51
Value
$37.16
PnL
-$3.35
Record
52%
90691-85227 (175918)
Invested
$25.76
Value
—
PnL
-$25.76
Record
66%
126252-65031 (191283)
Invested
$19
Value
—
PnL
-$19
Record
58%
51083-37220 (88303)
Invested
$14.75
Value
$25
PnL
+$10.25
Record
58%
60720-44332 (105052)
Invested
$12.3
Value
$20
PnL
+$7.7
Record
43%
618-806 (1424)
Invested
$11.52
Value
$36
PnL
+$24.48
Record
73%
95038-35661 (130699)
Invested
$18.39
Value
—
PnL
-$18.39
Record
55%
18041-14636 (32677)
Invested
$37.24
Value
$11.64
PnL
-$10.5
Record
64%
23828-13134 (36962)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$8.4
Value
—
PnL
-$8.4
Record
55%
45212-37590 (82802)
Invested
$7.04
Value
$13.04
PnL
+$6
Record
58%
38081-27294 (65375)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$6.5
Value
—
PnL
-$6.5
Record
62%
43934-26954 (70888)
AtomforgeCTR<$100Invested
$3.5
Value
—
PnL
-$3.5
Record
65%
4108-2237 (6345)
Invested
$2.97
Value
—
PnL
-$2.97
Record
54%
14498-12337 (26835)
Invested
$5.6
Value
$20
PnL
+$14.4
Record
47%
455-521 (976)
Invested
$1.75
Value
—
PnL
-$1.75
Record
69%
1646-748 (2394)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
66%
112311-58899 (171210)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20197-19346 (39543)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $1.3K
trdyugiolkw
Down — $585.95
thesidehustle
Down — $140.8
UpandDownSyndrome
ARBArbitrage — excluded
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $81.36
ohioism
Down — $92
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $75
asidjasiodja
Down — $59.1
dvasdkasodk
Down — $37.16
asdaefef
CTRUp — $0