Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET
Resolved Up. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
21
Down 45%
5 arb excluded
$2.8K
-$701.6
Smart Money Signal
9 of 21 top traders (43%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100 | Downavg 59.1¢ | $970.84 | $1.1K | +$121.23 | 57% 10427-7820 (18247) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 36.1¢ | $394.01 | $1.1K | +$698.06 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 59.1¢ | $576.83 | — | -$576.83 | |
AL almachARB<$100 | Downavg 76.6¢ | $838.32 | $588.12 | -$250.2 | 55% 48556-40105 (88661) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 61.8¢ | $363.52 | $588.12 | +$224.6 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 76.6¢ | $474.8 | — | -$474.8 | |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Downavg 78¢ | $642.34 | — | -$642.34 | 55% 50645-41244 (91889) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $160.94 | $162.57 | +$1.63 | 93% 23850-1790 (25640) |
TH thesidehustleARB<$100 | Downavg 51.5¢ | $131.82 | $134.93 | +$3.12 | 54% 11029-9400 (20429) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 28.2¢ | $38.1 | $134.93 | +$96.84 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51.5¢ | $93.72 | — | -$93.72 | |
TM tmsd-test | Upavg 32¢ | $54.07 | $168.97 | +$114.9 | 54% 14497-12335 (26832) |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 79.3¢ | $104.64 | $92.96 | -$11.68 | 66% 126202-65005 (191207) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Upavg 42.2¢ | $42.77 | $101.32 | +$58.55 | 54% 15401-13282 (28683) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 88.7¢ | $89.74 | $78.17 | -$11.57 | 61% 95257-60134 (155391) |
AS asabovesobelow2ARB<$100 | Downavg 62.2¢ | $90.75 | $38.88 | -$51.87 | 69% 1645-745 (2390) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 62.2¢ | $60.5 | — | -$60.5 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 77.8¢ | $30.25 | $38.88 | +$8.63 | |
 NIULAI4ARB<$100 | Downavg 61.8¢ | $83.64 | $44 | -$39.65 | 77% 9482-2876 (12358) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 70.6¢ | $31.08 | $44 | +$12.91 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 61.8¢ | $52.56 | — | -$52.56 | |
GO GoodRecipientCTR<$100 | Downavg 72.1¢ | $50.5 | — | -$50.5 | 43% 618-805 (1423) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 70.6¢ | $56.47 | $61.69 | +$5.22 | 52% 90652-85212 (175864) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $90 | — | -$112.5 | 51% 20187-19342 (39529) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR<$100 | Downavg 80.6¢ | $64.5 | — | -$64.5 | 73% 95037-35661 (130698) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $32.45 | $72.11 | +$39.66 | 64% 40258-23030 (63288) |
 AtomforgeCTR<$100 | Downavg 62¢ | $39.44 | — | -$39.44 | 65% 4106-2235 (6341) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $26.5 | — | -$26.5 | 58% 38071-27285 (65356) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 41¢ | $21.5 | $52.38 | +$30.88 | 65% 125573-67230 (192803) |
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819CTR<$100 | Downavg 55¢ | $11 | — | -$11 | 47% 454-520 (974) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Upavg 18¢ | $4.11 | $22.83 | +$18.72 | 63% 52106-30898 (83004) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Downavg 55.7¢ | $11.15 | — | -$11.15 | 50% 7888-7913 (15801) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $11.91 | $24.82 | +$12.91 | 62% 43927-26950 (70877) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 51.9¢ | $31.9 | — | -$12.74 | 64% 23759-13098 (36857) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Upavg 48.6¢ | $8.8 | $18.12 | +$9.32 | 58% 51074-37214 (88288) |
Invested
$970.84
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$121.23
Record
57%
10427-7820 (18247)
Both legs:
Invested
$838.32
Value
$588.12
PnL
-$250.2
Record
55%
48556-40105 (88661)
Both legs:
Invested
$642.34
Value
—
PnL
-$642.34
Record
55%
50645-41244 (91889)
Invested
$160.94
Value
$162.57
PnL
+$1.63
Record
93%
23850-1790 (25640)
Invested
$131.82
Value
$134.93
PnL
+$3.12
Record
54%
11029-9400 (20429)
Both legs:
Invested
$54.07
Value
$168.97
PnL
+$114.9
Record
54%
14497-12335 (26832)
Invested
$104.64
Value
$92.96
PnL
-$11.68
Record
66%
126202-65005 (191207)
Invested
$42.77
Value
$101.32
PnL
+$58.55
Record
54%
15401-13282 (28683)
Invested
$89.74
Value
$78.17
PnL
-$11.57
Record
61%
95257-60134 (155391)
Invested
$90.75
Value
$38.88
PnL
-$51.87
Record
69%
1645-745 (2390)
Both legs:
NIULAI4ARB<$100Invested
$83.64
Value
$44
PnL
-$39.65
Record
77%
9482-2876 (12358)
Both legs:
Invested
$50.5
Value
—
PnL
-$50.5
Record
43%
618-805 (1423)
Invested
$56.47
Value
$61.69
PnL
+$5.22
Record
52%
90652-85212 (175864)
Invested
$90
Value
—
PnL
-$112.5
Record
51%
20187-19342 (39529)
Invested
$64.5
Value
—
PnL
-$64.5
Record
73%
95037-35661 (130698)
ohioism<$100Invested
$32.45
Value
$72.11
PnL
+$39.66
Record
64%
40258-23030 (63288)
AtomforgeCTR<$100Invested
$39.44
Value
—
PnL
-$39.44
Record
65%
4106-2235 (6341)
Invested
$26.5
Value
—
PnL
-$26.5
Record
58%
38071-27285 (65356)
Invested
$21.5
Value
$52.38
PnL
+$30.88
Record
65%
125573-67230 (192803)
Invested
$11
Value
—
PnL
-$11
Record
47%
454-520 (974)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$4.11
Value
$22.83
PnL
+$18.72
Record
63%
52106-30898 (83004)
Invested
$11.15
Value
—
PnL
-$11.15
Record
50%
7888-7913 (15801)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$11.91
Value
$24.82
PnL
+$12.91
Record
62%
43927-26950 (70877)
Invested
$31.9
Value
—
PnL
-$12.74
Record
64%
23759-13098 (36857)
Invested
$8.8
Value
$18.12
PnL
+$9.32
Record
58%
51074-37214 (88288)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
trdyugiolkw
ARBArbitrage — excluded
almach
ARBArbitrage — excluded
mo-money
CTRDown — $0
hoodquant
Up — $162.57
thesidehustle
ARBArbitrage — excluded
tmsd-test
Up — $168.97
asdaefef
Up — $92.96
aswfadq1555
Up — $101.32
asidjasiodja
Up — $78.17
asabovesobelow2
ARBArbitrage — excluded