Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET

Resolved Down. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 68%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.1K

Combined PnL

$6.3K

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 32 top traders (69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down22 traders

Total Value$13.5K

Total Shares13,531

Combined PnL+$6.9K

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares821

Combined PnL-$544.52

Down — 69%Up — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RL RLWG	Downavg 38.8¢	$2.5K	$6.4K	+$3.9K	50% 7862-7894 (15756)
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$18.97	74% 102628-36442 (139070)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.1¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$25.71	93% 23707-1785 (25492)
AR arbfinder2026	Downavg 36.7¢	$537.79	$975.2	+$918.58	55% 5312-4294 (9606)
TM tmsd-testARB<$100	Upavg 40.2¢	$414.5	$234.78	-$179.72	54% 14486-12318 (26804)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.2¢	$297.8	—	-$297.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.7¢	$116.69	$234.78	+$118.09
Atomforge	Downavg 37.4¢	$243.45	$562.24	+$318.79	65% 4082-2215 (6297)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Downavg 67.5¢	$317.06	$470	+$152.94	78% 180-50 (230)
AS asabovesobelow2ARB<$100	Downavg 37.6¢	$168.25	$278.96	+$110.71	69% 1639-740 (2379)
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.6¢	$104.75	$278.96	+$174.21
└ Up leg	Upavg 22.2¢	$63.5	—	-$63.5
OX oxe78sh4w98	Downavg 53.5¢	$236.16	$441.82	+$205.66	52% 403-368 (771)
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144ARB<$100	Upavg 42.4¢	$125.75	$50	-$75.75	73% 95032-35657 (130689)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.4¢	$108.75	—	-$108.75
└ Down leg	Downavg 34¢	$17	$50	+$33
0X 0xd6c1c24846e0187f38c74497620ad7e	Downavg 36.3¢	$178.43	$123	+$306.17	50% 635-639 (1274)
31 3123123121313	Downavg 55.2¢	$110.37	$199.99	+$89.62	56% 672-535 (1207)
GO GoodRecipientCTR	Upavg 61.8¢	$111.01	—	-$111.01	43% 614-799 (1413)
ohioism	Downavg 86.5¢	$156.97	$173.83	+$16.86	64% 40197-22999 (63196)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 88¢	$136.81	$106.51	-$30.3	66% 126030-64913 (190943)
0X 0xC87836BEf73740Dd2206c05628E59faA529	Downavg 53.6¢	$112.55	$210	+$97.45	54% 842-717 (1559)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Upavg 50.2¢	$90.12	—	-$90.12	34% 18858-35853 (54711)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 57¢	$85.5	—	-$85.5	56% 58191-44916 (103107)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 73¢	$66.57	—	-$66.57	51% 20141-19302 (39443)
BE berlinskies	Downavg 53.7¢	$64.8	$120.59	+$55.79	58% 5834-4284 (10118)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 51.1¢	$62.41	$120	+$57.59	58% 37996-27224 (65220)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a<$100	Downavg 51.5¢	$50.13	$97.37	+$47.24	53% 2013-1816 (3829)
NIULAI4CTR<$100	Upavg 48.2¢	$62.07	—	-$62.07	77% 9464-2855 (12319)
JO JocJo<$100	Downavg 43.3¢	$24.93	$37.03	+$32.19	51% 952-903 (1855)
0X 0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh<$100	Downavg 52.7¢	$32.4	$61.45	+$29.05	58% 1336-972 (2308)

RLWG

Down

Invested

$2,498.51

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$3.9K

Record

50%

7862-7894 (15756)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$1,877.83

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$18.97

Record

74%

102628-36442 (139070)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,341.29

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$25.71

Record

93%

23707-1785 (25492)

arbfinder2026

Down

Invested

$537.79

Value

$975.2

PnL

+$918.58

Record

55%

5312-4294 (9606)

tmsd-testARB<$100

Invested

$414.5

Value

$234.78

PnL

-$179.72

Record

54%

14486-12318 (26804)

Both legs:

Up$297.840.2¢-$297.8

Down$116.6949.7¢+$118.09

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$243.45

Value

$562.24

PnL

+$318.79

Record

65%

4082-2215 (6297)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down

Invested

$317.06

Value

$470

PnL

+$152.94

Record

78%

180-50 (230)

asabovesobelow2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$168.25

Value

$278.96

PnL

+$110.71

Record

69%

1639-740 (2379)

Both legs:

Down$104.7537.6¢+$174.21

Up$63.522.2¢-$63.5

oxe78sh4w98

Down

Invested

$236.16

Value

$441.82

PnL

+$205.66

Record

52%

403-368 (771)

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144ARB<$100

Invested

$125.75

Value

$50

PnL

-$75.75

Record

73%

95032-35657 (130689)

Both legs:

Up$108.7542.4¢-$108.75

Down$1734¢+$33

0xd6c1c24846e0187f38c74497620ad7e

Down

Invested

$178.43

Value

$123

PnL

+$306.17

Record

50%

635-639 (1274)

3123123121313

Down

Invested

$110.37

Value

$199.99

PnL

+$89.62

Record

56%

672-535 (1207)

GoodRecipientCTR

Invested

$111.01

Value

—

PnL

-$111.01

Record

43%

614-799 (1413)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$156.97

Value

$173.83

PnL

+$16.86

Record

64%

40197-22999 (63196)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$136.81

Value

$106.51

PnL

-$30.3

Record

66%

126030-64913 (190943)

0xC87836BEf73740Dd2206c05628E59faA529

Down

Invested

$112.55

Value

$210

PnL

+$97.45

Record

54%

842-717 (1559)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Invested

$90.12

Value

—

PnL

-$90.12

Record

34%

18858-35853 (54711)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$85.5

Value

—

PnL

-$85.5

Record

56%

58191-44916 (103107)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$66.57

Value

—

PnL

-$66.57

Record

51%

20141-19302 (39443)

berlinskies

Down

Invested

$64.8

Value

$120.59

PnL

+$55.79

Record

58%

5834-4284 (10118)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$62.41

Value

$120

PnL

+$57.59

Record

58%

37996-27224 (65220)

0xdc27...afdd9a<$100

Down

Invested

$50.13

Value

$97.37

PnL

+$47.24

Record

53%

2013-1816 (3829)

NIULAI4CTR<$100

Invested

$62.07

Value

—

PnL

-$62.07

Record

77%

9464-2855 (12319)

JocJo<$100

Down

Invested

$24.93

Value

$37.03

PnL

+$32.19

Record

51%

952-903 (1855)

0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh<$100

Down

Invested

$32.4

Value

$61.45

PnL

+$29.05

Record

58%

1336-972 (2308)

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 32 top traders (69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xd33fcdcd...736102

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1793405700

Traders in this Market

RLWG

Down — $6.4K

+$3.9K

BoneOhio

Down — $1.9K

+$18.97

hoodquant

Down — $1.4K

+$25.71

arbfinder2026

Down — $975.2

+$918.58

tmsd-test

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$179.72

Atomforge

Down — $562.24

+$318.79

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down — $470

+$152.94

asabovesobelow2

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$110.71

oxe78sh4w98

Down — $441.82

+$205.66

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$75.75

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