Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
25
Down 64%
1 arb excluded
$5.3K
$746.87
Smart Money Signal
16 of 25 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$14.93 | 93% 23707-1785 (25492) |
RL RLWG | Downavg 64.3¢ | $710.5 | $1.1K | +$393.95 | 50% 7862-7894 (15756) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99¢ | $732.47 | $739.87 | +$7.4 | 59% 62333-43508 (105841) |
AR arbfinder2026 | Downavg 48.9¢ | $333.87 | $682.32 | +$348.45 | 55% 5312-4294 (9606) |
0X 0xd6c1c24846e0187f38c74497620ad7e | Downavg 47.5¢ | $162.45 | $341.9 | +$179.45 | 50% 635-639 (1274) |
TM tmsd-test | Downavg 41.9¢ | $111.98 | $155.74 | +$43.76 | 54% 14486-12318 (26804) |
 Atomforge | Downavg 53¢ | $117.11 | $220.88 | +$103.76 | 65% 4082-2215 (6297) |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Upavg 48¢ | $115.32 | — | -$115.32 | 57% 7978-6132 (14110) |
31 3123123121313 | Downavg 64¢ | $71 | $100 | +$29 | 56% 672-535 (1207) |
 ohioismARB<$100 | Downavg 87.2¢ | $130.34 | $84.51 | -$45.83 | 64% 40197-22999 (63196) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 87.2¢ | $73.73 | $84.51 | +$10.78 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 25.9¢ | $56.6 | — | -$56.6 | |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR<$100 | Upavg 48.6¢ | $97.74 | — | -$97.74 | 73% 95032-35657 (130689) |
AS asabovesobelow2 | Downavg 50.9¢ | $58.25 | $114.4 | +$56.15 | 69% 1639-740 (2379) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 49.7¢ | $69.67 | $68.74 | +$33.3 | 64% 23528-12966 (36494) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 69.8¢ | $64.25 | $68.45 | +$4.2 | 55% 17960-14549 (32509) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 64.2¢ | $74.22 | — | -$74.22 | 58% 60661-44284 (104945) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Upavg 48.5¢ | $41.62 | — | -$41.62 | 34% 18858-35853 (54711) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 47.6¢ | $58.14 | — | -$58.14 | 61% 95112-60031 (155143) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 38.4¢ | $41.35 | — | -$41.35 | 52% 90518-85062 (175580) |
GO GoodRecipient<$100 | Downavg 37.2¢ | $15.54 | $40 | +$24.46 | 43% 614-799 (1413) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 62.1¢ | $57.09 | — | -$57.09 | 66% 126030-64913 (190943) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $20 | $25 | +$5 | 56% 58191-44916 (103107) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 40¢ | $16.83 | — | -$16.83 | 58% 37996-27224 (65220) |
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $10.59 | $19.99 | +$9.4 | 47% 447-509 (956) |
JO JocJo<$100 | Downavg 48.8¢ | $9.67 | $19.82 | +$10.15 | 51% 952-903 (1855) |
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a<$100 | Downavg 62¢ | $6.25 | $10.08 | +$3.83 | 53% 2013-1816 (3829) |
Invested
$1,477.95
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$14.93
Record
93%
23707-1785 (25492)
Invested
$710.5
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$393.95
Record
50%
7862-7894 (15756)
Invested
$732.47
Value
$739.87
PnL
+$7.4
Record
59%
62333-43508 (105841)
Invested
$333.87
Value
$682.32
PnL
+$348.45
Record
55%
5312-4294 (9606)
Invested
$162.45
Value
$341.9
PnL
+$179.45
Record
50%
635-639 (1274)
Invested
$111.98
Value
$155.74
PnL
+$43.76
Record
54%
14486-12318 (26804)
AtomforgeInvested
$117.11
Value
$220.88
PnL
+$103.76
Record
65%
4082-2215 (6297)
Invested
$115.32
Value
—
PnL
-$115.32
Record
57%
7978-6132 (14110)
Invested
$71
Value
$100
PnL
+$29
Record
56%
672-535 (1207)
ohioismARB<$100Invested
$130.34
Value
$84.51
PnL
-$45.83
Record
64%
40197-22999 (63196)
Both legs:
Invested
$97.74
Value
—
PnL
-$97.74
Record
73%
95032-35657 (130689)
Invested
$58.25
Value
$114.4
PnL
+$56.15
Record
69%
1639-740 (2379)
Invested
$69.67
Value
$68.74
PnL
+$33.3
Record
64%
23528-12966 (36494)
Invested
$64.25
Value
$68.45
PnL
+$4.2
Record
55%
17960-14549 (32509)
Invested
$74.22
Value
—
PnL
-$74.22
Record
58%
60661-44284 (104945)
Invested
$41.62
Value
—
PnL
-$41.62
Record
34%
18858-35853 (54711)
Invested
$58.14
Value
—
PnL
-$58.14
Record
61%
95112-60031 (155143)
Invested
$41.35
Value
—
PnL
-$41.35
Record
52%
90518-85062 (175580)
Invested
$15.54
Value
$40
PnL
+$24.46
Record
43%
614-799 (1413)
Invested
$57.09
Value
—
PnL
-$57.09
Record
66%
126030-64913 (190943)
Invested
$20
Value
$25
PnL
+$5
Record
56%
58191-44916 (103107)
Invested
$16.83
Value
—
PnL
-$16.83
Record
58%
37996-27224 (65220)
Invested
$10.59
Value
$19.99
PnL
+$9.4
Record
47%
447-509 (956)
Invested
$9.67
Value
$19.82
PnL
+$10.15
Record
51%
952-903 (1855)
Invested
$6.25
Value
$10.08
PnL
+$3.83
Record
53%
2013-1816 (3829)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $1.5K
RLWG
Down — $1.1K
0x50f7
Down — $739.87
arbfinder2026
Down — $682.32
0xd6c1c24846e0187f38c74497620ad7e
Down — $341.9
tmsd-test
Down — $155.74
Atomforge
Down — $220.88
wzbbb
CTRUp — $0
3123123121313
Down — $100
ohioism
ARBArbitrage — excluded