Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 47% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 47%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

$518.6

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 19 top traders (47%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares6,871

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,212

Combined PnL-$675.17

Down — 47%Up — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99¢	$3.6K	$3.7K	+$36.87	59% 62333-43508 (105841)
wowitsamazingCTR	Upavg 17.6¢	$356.45	—	-$342.13	57% 12702-9403 (22105)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.5¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$23.69	93% 23707-1785 (25492)
TM tmsd-test	Downavg 38.6¢	$535.94	$997.17	+$461.23	54% 14486-12318 (26804)
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Downavg 76.1¢	$421.68	$433.86	+$12.17	57% 10409-7811 (18220)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.1¢	$329.97	$433.86	+$103.89
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.6¢	$91.72	—	-$91.72
AS asabovesobelow2ARB<$100	Downavg 95.3¢	$369	$366.98	-$2.02	69% 1639-740 (2379)
└ Down leg	Downavg 95.3¢	$349.75	$366.98	+$17.23
└ Up leg	Upavg 12.9¢	$19.25	—	-$19.25
AR arbfinder2026CTR<$100	Upavg 14.7¢	$73.34	—	-$73.34	55% 5312-4294 (9606)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 74¢	$217.27	$225.66	+$8.39	57% 6742-4985 (11727)
└ Down leg	Downavg 74¢	$166.89	$225.66	+$58.77
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.7¢	$50.38	—	-$50.38
AtomforgeARB<$100	Downavg 91.5¢	$124.94	$94.21	-$30.73	65% 4082-2215 (6297)
└ Up leg	Upavg 14.2¢	$38.7	—	-$38.7
└ Down leg	Downavg 91.5¢	$86.24	$94.21	+$7.97
NIULAI4	Downavg 89.4¢	$320.14	$358	+$37.86	77% 9464-2855 (12319)
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Downavg 35.6¢	$121.06	$177.75	+$56.7	66% 126030-64913 (190943)
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.6¢	$63.25	$177.75	+$114.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.4¢	$57.81	—	-$57.81
0X 0xd6c1c24846e0187f38c74497620ad7eCTR<$100	Upavg 13¢	$32.26	—	-$32.26	50% 635-639 (1274)
LI Little-bigCTR	Upavg 51.3¢	$119.48	—	-$119.48	34% 18858-35853 (54711)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 20.9¢	$36.5	—	-$36.5	64% 40197-22999 (63196)
AS asidjasiodjaARB<$100	Downavg 40.2¢	$78.18	$107.22	+$29.03	61% 95112-60031 (155143)
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.2¢	$43.07	$107.22	+$64.15
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.2¢	$35.12	—	-$35.12
KA Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100	Downavg 69.7¢	$85.85	$83.05	-$2.8	55% 17960-14549 (32509)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.7¢	$57.9	$83.05	+$25.15
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.5¢	$27.95	—	-$27.95
RL RLWGARB<$100	Downavg 59.1¢	$83.77	$79.96	-$3.8	50% 7862-7894 (15756)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.1¢	$47.23	$79.96	+$32.74
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.9¢	$36.54	—	-$36.54
UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100	Downavg 29.9¢	$31.46	$79.97	+$48.51	63% 52043-30715 (82758)
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.9¢	$23.92	$79.97	+$56.05
└ Up leg	Upavg 16.7¢	$7.54	—	-$7.54
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 56¢	$58.77	$74.99	+$16.22	56% 58191-44916 (103107)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 62.1¢	$52.76	$68.22	+$15.46	52% 90518-85062 (175580)
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819<$100	Downavg 69.3¢	$48.6	$70.13	+$21.53	47% 447-509 (956)
AA aaa221CTR	Upavg 50.5¢	$101.37	—	-$44.61	64% 23528-12966 (36494)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 14.2¢	$9.43	—	-$9.43	58% 60661-44284 (104945)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$15.68	—	-$15.68	57% 7978-6132 (14110)
JO JocJoCTR<$100	Upavg 12.6¢	$1.74	—	-$1.74	51% 952-903 (1855)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$3,649.67

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$36.87

Record

59%

62333-43508 (105841)

wowitsamazingCTR

Invested

$356.45

Value

—

PnL

-$342.13

Record

57%

12702-9403 (22105)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,584.31

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$23.69

Record

93%

23707-1785 (25492)

tmsd-test

Down

Invested

$535.94

Value

$997.17

PnL

+$461.23

Record

54%

14486-12318 (26804)

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$421.68

Value

$433.86

PnL

+$12.17

Record

57%

10409-7811 (18220)

Both legs:

Down$329.9776.1¢+$103.89

Up$91.7223.6¢-$91.72

asabovesobelow2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$369

Value

$366.98

PnL

-$2.02

Record

69%

1639-740 (2379)

Both legs:

Down$349.7595.3¢+$17.23

Up$19.2512.9¢-$19.25

arbfinder2026CTR<$100

Invested

$73.34

Value

—

PnL

-$73.34

Record

55%

5312-4294 (9606)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$217.27

Value

$225.66

PnL

+$8.39

Record

57%

6742-4985 (11727)

Both legs:

Down$166.8974¢+$58.77

Up$50.3828.7¢-$50.38

AtomforgeARB<$100

Down

Invested

$124.94

Value

$94.21

PnL

-$30.73

Record

65%

4082-2215 (6297)

Both legs:

Up$38.714.2¢-$38.7

Down$86.2491.5¢+$7.97

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$320.14

Value

$358

PnL

+$37.86

Record

77%

9464-2855 (12319)

asdaefefARB<$100

Down

Invested

$121.06

Value

$177.75

PnL

+$56.7

Record

66%

126030-64913 (190943)

Both legs:

Down$63.2535.6¢+$114.5

Up$57.8145.4¢-$57.81

0xd6c1c24846e0187f38c74497620ad7eCTR<$100

Invested

$32.26

Value

—

PnL

-$32.26

Record

50%

635-639 (1274)

Little-bigCTR

Invested

$119.48

Value

—

PnL

-$119.48

Record

34%

18858-35853 (54711)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$36.5

Value

—

PnL

-$36.5

Record

64%

40197-22999 (63196)

asidjasiodjaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$78.18

Value

$107.22

PnL

+$29.03

Record

61%

95112-60031 (155143)

Both legs:

Down$43.0740.2¢+$64.15

Up$35.1260.2¢-$35.12

Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$85.85

Value

$83.05

PnL

-$2.8

Record

55%

17960-14549 (32509)

Both legs:

Down$57.969.7¢+$25.15

Up$27.9543.5¢-$27.95

RLWGARB<$100

Down

Invested

$83.77

Value

$79.96

PnL

-$3.8

Record

50%

7862-7894 (15756)

Both legs:

Down$47.2359.1¢+$32.74

Up$36.5472.9¢-$36.54

UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100

Down

Invested

$31.46

Value

$79.97

PnL

+$48.51

Record

63%

52043-30715 (82758)

Both legs:

Down$23.9229.9¢+$56.05

Up$7.5416.7¢-$7.54

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$58.77

Value

$74.99

PnL

+$16.22

Record

56%

58191-44916 (103107)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$52.76

Value

$68.22

PnL

+$15.46

Record

52%

90518-85062 (175580)

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819<$100

Down

Invested

$48.6

Value

$70.13

PnL

+$21.53

Record

47%

447-509 (956)

aaa221CTR

Invested

$101.37

Value

—

PnL

-$44.61

Record

64%

23528-12966 (36494)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$9.43

Value

—

PnL

-$9.43

Record

58%

60661-44284 (104945)

wzbbbCTR<$100

Invested

$15.68

Value

—

PnL

-$15.68

Record

57%

7978-6132 (14110)

JocJoCTR<$100

Invested

$1.74

Value

—

PnL

-$1.74

Record

51%

952-903 (1855)

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 19 top traders (47%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xaa9cd0e7...255564

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1793400300

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $3.7K

+$36.87

wowitsamazing

CTR

Up — $0

-$342.13

hoodquant

Down — $1.6K

+$23.69

tmsd-test

Down — $997.17

trdyugiolkw

Arbitrage — excluded

asabovesobelow2

Arbitrage — excluded

arbfinder2026

Up — $0

peepeepoopoo24

Arbitrage — excluded

Atomforge

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Down — $358

+$37.86

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