Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
Resolved Up. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
Up 75%
1 arb excluded
$2.3K
-$422.21
Smart Money Signal
12 of 16 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.9¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$16 | 93% 23670-1781 (25451) |
IM ImgonnadoitCTR | Downavg 24.3¢ | $600 | — | -$600 | 38% 184-298 (482) |
LI Little-big | Upavg 54.1¢ | $121.66 | $225 | +$103.34 | 34% 18852-35845 (54697) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Upavg 56.6¢ | $117.13 | $163 | +$45.87 | 57% 7965-6118 (14083) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56.6¢ | $92.29 | $163 | +$70.71 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 46¢ | $24.84 | — | -$24.84 | |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Upavg 64.1¢ | $78.37 | $95 | +$16.63 | 57% 6738-4981 (11719) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 73.9¢ | $67.5 | $91.29 | +$23.79 | 51% 20126-19292 (39418) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 60¢ | $53.4 | $89 | +$35.6 | 74% 102623-36437 (139060) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 84¢ | $46.3 | $55.12 | +$8.82 | 55% 17960-14547 (32507) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 64.4¢ | $41.52 | $53.99 | +$18.74 | 64% 23481-12947 (36428) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 82.9¢ | $38.15 | $43.43 | +$5.28 | 52% 90492-85022 (175514) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 75.5¢ | $28.23 | $34.05 | +$5.82 | 61% 95091-59995 (155086) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $29.81 | — | -$29.81 | 58% 37968-27204 (65172) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 73.1¢ | $16.84 | $23.02 | +$6.18 | 58% 60643-44275 (104918) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 95¢ | $19.01 | $20.01 | +$1 | 56% 58175-44902 (103077) |
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819CTR<$100 | Downavg 22.8¢ | $16.85 | — | -$16.85 | 47% 446-504 (950) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 3.9¢ | $22.35 | — | -$22.35 | 63% 52032-30695 (82727) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 59¢ | $8.04 | $13.63 | +$5.59 | 66% 126008-64883 (190891) |
Invested
$1,395.35
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$16
Record
93%
23670-1781 (25451)
Invested
$600
Value
—
PnL
-$600
Record
38%
184-298 (482)
Invested
$121.66
Value
$225
PnL
+$103.34
Record
34%
18852-35845 (54697)
Invested
$117.13
Value
$163
PnL
+$45.87
Record
57%
7965-6118 (14083)
Both legs:
Invested
$78.37
Value
$95
PnL
+$16.63
Record
57%
6738-4981 (11719)
Invested
$67.5
Value
$91.29
PnL
+$23.79
Record
51%
20126-19292 (39418)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$53.4
Value
$89
PnL
+$35.6
Record
74%
102623-36437 (139060)
Invested
$46.3
Value
$55.12
PnL
+$8.82
Record
55%
17960-14547 (32507)
Invested
$41.52
Value
$53.99
PnL
+$18.74
Record
64%
23481-12947 (36428)
Invested
$38.15
Value
$43.43
PnL
+$5.28
Record
52%
90492-85022 (175514)
Invested
$28.23
Value
$34.05
PnL
+$5.82
Record
61%
95091-59995 (155086)
Invested
$29.81
Value
—
PnL
-$29.81
Record
58%
37968-27204 (65172)
Invested
$16.84
Value
$23.02
PnL
+$6.18
Record
58%
60643-44275 (104918)
Invested
$19.01
Value
$20.01
PnL
+$1
Record
56%
58175-44902 (103077)
Invested
$16.85
Value
—
PnL
-$16.85
Record
47%
446-504 (950)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$22.35
Value
—
PnL
-$22.35
Record
63%
52032-30695 (82727)
Invested
$8.04
Value
$13.63
PnL
+$5.59
Record
66%
126008-64883 (190891)
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