Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 81% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
Down 81%
1 arb excluded
$2.8K
$98.79
Smart Money Signal
13 of 16 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 96.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$39.63 | 93% 23670-1781 (25451) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Downavg 84.5¢ | $449.03 | $463.24 | +$14.21 | 57% 10398-7803 (18201) |
TH thesidehustle | Downavg 70.3¢ | $331.39 | $294.68 | -$36.71 | 54% 10968-9354 (20322) |
 UpandDownSyndrome | Downavg 52.1¢ | $163.53 | $252.36 | +$88.83 | 63% 52032-30695 (82727) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Downavg 79.6¢ | $111.8 | $105.11 | -$6.69 | 57% 6738-4981 (11719) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 55.6¢ | $111.52 | $200.49 | +$88.97 | 34% 18852-35845 (54697) |
 wowitsamazingARB<$100 | Upavg 44.8¢ | $92.85 | $74.68 | -$18.17 | 57% 12697-9398 (22095) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44.8¢ | $51.6 | — | -$51.6 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55.2¢ | $41.25 | $74.68 | +$33.43 | |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $58.8 | — | -$58.8 | 57% 7965-6118 (14083) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 59.2¢ | $85.8 | $54.45 | -$3.58 | 64% 23481-12947 (36428) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 83.7¢ | $37.75 | $30.12 | -$7.63 | 55% 17960-14547 (32507) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 60.1¢ | $29.59 | $36.42 | +$6.83 | 66% 126008-64883 (190891) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 76.4¢ | $19.94 | $21.35 | +$1.41 | 61% 95091-59995 (155086) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 93.2¢ | $21.44 | $19.2 | -$2.24 | 52% 90492-85022 (175514) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $22.08 | $32 | +$9.92 | 56% 58175-44902 (103077) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 29.4¢ | $36.12 | — | -$31.44 | 51% 20126-19292 (39418) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Upavg 39¢ | $6.5 | — | -$6.5 | 50% 7858-7887 (15745) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 57¢ | $3.42 | $6 | +$2.58 | 58% 37968-27204 (65172) |
Invested
$1,194.37
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$39.63
Record
93%
23670-1781 (25451)
Invested
$449.03
Value
$463.24
PnL
+$14.21
Record
57%
10398-7803 (18201)
Invested
$331.39
Value
$294.68
PnL
-$36.71
Record
54%
10968-9354 (20322)
UpandDownSyndromeInvested
$163.53
Value
$252.36
PnL
+$88.83
Record
63%
52032-30695 (82727)
Invested
$111.8
Value
$105.11
PnL
-$6.69
Record
57%
6738-4981 (11719)
Invested
$111.52
Value
$200.49
PnL
+$88.97
Record
34%
18852-35845 (54697)
wowitsamazingARB<$100Invested
$92.85
Value
$74.68
PnL
-$18.17
Record
57%
12697-9398 (22095)
Both legs:
Invested
$58.8
Value
—
PnL
-$58.8
Record
57%
7965-6118 (14083)
Invested
$85.8
Value
$54.45
PnL
-$3.58
Record
64%
23481-12947 (36428)
Invested
$37.75
Value
$30.12
PnL
-$7.63
Record
55%
17960-14547 (32507)
Invested
$29.59
Value
$36.42
PnL
+$6.83
Record
66%
126008-64883 (190891)
Invested
$19.94
Value
$21.35
PnL
+$1.41
Record
61%
95091-59995 (155086)
Invested
$21.44
Value
$19.2
PnL
-$2.24
Record
52%
90492-85022 (175514)
Invested
$22.08
Value
$32
PnL
+$9.92
Record
56%
58175-44902 (103077)
Invested
$36.12
Value
—
PnL
-$31.44
Record
51%
20126-19292 (39418)
Invested
$6.5
Value
—
PnL
-$6.5
Record
50%
7858-7887 (15745)
Invested
$3.42
Value
$6
PnL
+$2.58
Record
58%
37968-27204 (65172)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $1.2K
trdyugiolkw
Down — $463.24
thesidehustle
Down — $294.68
UpandDownSyndrome
Down — $252.36
peepeepoopoo24
Down — $105.11
Little-big
Down — $200.49
wowitsamazing
ARBArbitrage — excluded
wzbbb
CTRUp — $0
aaa221
Down — $54.45
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $30.12