Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
Resolved Up. 25% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
Up 20%
5 arb excluded
$2.2K
$-1.4K
Smart Money Signal
4 of 16 top traders (25%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.2¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$24.92 | 93% 23629-1777 (25406) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 21.6¢ | $778.78 | — | -$778.78 | 57% 71032-54136 (125168) |
TR trdyugiolkwCTR | Downavg 38.1¢ | $1.2K | — | $-1.2K | 57% 10393-7793 (18186) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Upavg 64.5¢ | $349.23 | $301.14 | -$48.09 | 57% 6732-4979 (11711) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Downavg 59.1¢ | $125.81 | $103.66 | -$22.15 | 57% 7947-6108 (14055) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 59.1¢ | $91.01 | — | -$91.01 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33.6¢ | $34.8 | $103.66 | +$68.86 | |
DE devonpollARB<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $115.9 | $90 | +$16.06 | 51% 20120-19270 (39390) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.9¢ | $45.78 | $90 | +$93.46 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 43¢ | $77.4 | — | -$77.4 | |
TM tmsd-testARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $98.55 | $105.09 | +$6.55 | 54% 14479-12311 (26790) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $52.55 | $105.09 | +$52.55 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 46¢ | $46 | — | -$46 | |
 BoneOhioCTR | Downavg 62.6¢ | $156.38 | — | -$156.38 | 74% 102617-36432 (139049) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $92.21 | $100 | +$7.79 | 56% 58164-44891 (103055) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47¢ | $47 | $100 | +$53 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60¢ | $45.21 | — | -$45.21 | |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100 | Downavg 58.5¢ | $107.15 | $52.99 | -$54.16 | 58% 60631-44262 (104893) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 36.5¢ | $19.35 | $52.99 | +$33.64 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 58.5¢ | $87.8 | — | -$87.8 | |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR<$100 | Downavg 42¢ | $42 | — | -$42 | 73% 95031-35654 (130685) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 21.2¢ | $12.47 | — | -$12.47 | 52% 90461-84991 (175452) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 57¢ | $15 | — | -$15 | 64% 40186-22978 (63164) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 23.6¢ | $5.94 | — | -$5.94 | 61% 95058-59969 (155027) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 24.3¢ | $5.47 | — | -$5.47 | 66% 125972-64860 (190832) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 63.5¢ | $10.45 | — | -$10.45 | 55% 17936-14530 (32466) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $5.2 | $10 | +$4.8 | 66% 112247-58715 (170962) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Downavg 19.5¢ | $1.95 | — | -$1.95 | 50% 7856-7884 (15740) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 50.3¢ | $50.97 | — | -$11.68 | 64% 23436-12922 (36358) |
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819CTR<$100 | Downavg 55¢ | $0.6 | — | -$0.6 | 47% 442-503 (945) |
IM Imgonnadoit | Upavg 37.1¢ | $551.67 | $0 | +$904.13 | 38% 184-298 (482) |
Invested
$1,370.35
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$24.92
Record
93%
23629-1777 (25406)
Invested
$778.78
Value
—
PnL
-$778.78
Record
57%
71032-54136 (125168)
Invested
$1,209.52
Value
—
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
57%
10393-7793 (18186)
Invested
$349.23
Value
$301.14
PnL
-$48.09
Record
57%
6732-4979 (11711)
Invested
$125.81
Value
$103.66
PnL
-$22.15
Record
57%
7947-6108 (14055)
Both legs:
Invested
$115.9
Value
$90
PnL
+$16.06
Record
51%
20120-19270 (39390)
Both legs:
Invested
$98.55
Value
$105.09
PnL
+$6.55
Record
54%
14479-12311 (26790)
Both legs:
BoneOhioCTRInvested
$156.38
Value
—
PnL
-$156.38
Record
74%
102617-36432 (139049)
Invested
$92.21
Value
$100
PnL
+$7.79
Record
56%
58164-44891 (103055)
Both legs:
Invested
$107.15
Value
$52.99
PnL
-$54.16
Record
58%
60631-44262 (104893)
Both legs:
Invested
$42
Value
—
PnL
-$42
Record
73%
95031-35654 (130685)
Invested
$12.47
Value
—
PnL
-$12.47
Record
52%
90461-84991 (175452)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$15
Value
—
PnL
-$15
Record
64%
40186-22978 (63164)
Invested
$5.94
Value
—
PnL
-$5.94
Record
61%
95058-59969 (155027)
Invested
$5.47
Value
—
PnL
-$5.47
Record
66%
125972-64860 (190832)
Invested
$10.45
Value
—
PnL
-$10.45
Record
55%
17936-14530 (32466)
Invested
$5.2
Value
$10
PnL
+$4.8
Record
66%
112247-58715 (170962)
Invested
$1.95
Value
—
PnL
-$1.95
Record
50%
7856-7884 (15740)
Invested
$50.97
Value
—
PnL
-$11.68
Record
64%
23436-12922 (36358)
Invested
$0.6
Value
—
PnL
-$0.6
Record
47%
442-503 (945)
Invested
$551.67
Value
$0
PnL
+$904.13
Record
38%
184-298 (482)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Up — $1.4K
uninformedfloww
CTRDown — $0
trdyugiolkw
CTRDown — $0
peepeepoopoo24
Up — $301.14
wzbbb
ARBArbitrage — excluded
devonpoll
ARBArbitrage — excluded
tmsd-test
ARBArbitrage — excluded
BoneOhio
CTRDown — $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
ARBArbitrage — excluded