Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 52% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
21
Up 47%
1 arb excluded
$3.5K
-$591.65
Smart Money Signal
11 of 21 top traders (52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.4¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$19.78 | 93% 23585-1776 (25361) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Upavg 67.4¢ | $976.26 | $1.1K | +$108.39 | 54% 15363-13243 (28606) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Downavg 47.4¢ | $436.4 | — | -$436.4 | 46% 7988-9443 (17431) |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Downavg 31¢ | $296.07 | — | -$296.07 | 57% 7932-6096 (14028) |
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100 | Downavg 65.5¢ | $358.85 | $441.38 | +$82.53 | 57% 10380-7788 (18168) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 65.5¢ | $213.71 | — | -$213.71 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32.9¢ | $145.14 | $441.38 | +$296.24 | |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Upavg 57.2¢ | $238.1 | $241.19 | +$3.09 | 57% 6727-4975 (11702) |
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $205.96 | $206.17 | +$0.21 | 59% 62290-43460 (105750) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Downavg 48¢ | $155.86 | — | -$155.86 | 58% 37915-27161 (65076) |
PB PBot-6 | Upavg 53.5¢ | $107 | $200 | +$93 | 58% 51019-37168 (88187) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 47.9¢ | $95.71 | — | -$95.71 | 34% 18834-35827 (54661) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 83.6¢ | $55.42 | $59.99 | +$6.68 | 64% 23388-12902 (36290) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 93.6¢ | $35.64 | $28 | -$7.64 | 66% 125935-64835 (190770) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR<$100 | Downavg 34¢ | $17 | — | -$17 | 73% 95030-35654 (130684) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 45.7¢ | $70.38 | — | -$70.38 | 57% 71009-54091 (125100) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 94¢ | $13.56 | $12 | -$1.56 | 61% 95030-59937 (154967) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 54¢ | $11.88 | $22 | +$10.12 | 58% 60607-44251 (104858) |
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819CTR<$100 | Downavg 24¢ | $4.8 | — | -$4.8 | 47% 441-501 (942) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 27.3¢ | $6.63 | — | -$6.63 | 52% 90443-84945 (175388) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 74¢ | $3.7 | — | -$3.7 | 55% 17905-14498 (32403) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 38¢ | $0.61 | — | -$0.61 | 56% 58145-44880 (103025) |
IM Imgonnadoit | Upavg 44.3¢ | $319.99 | $0 | +$263.45 | 38% 184-298 (482) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 24.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20108-19252 (39360) |
Invested
$1,223.22
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$19.78
Record
93%
23585-1776 (25361)
Invested
$976.26
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$108.39
Record
54%
15363-13243 (28606)
Invested
$436.4
Value
—
PnL
-$436.4
Record
46%
7988-9443 (17431)
Invested
$296.07
Value
—
PnL
-$296.07
Record
57%
7932-6096 (14028)
Invested
$358.85
Value
$441.38
PnL
+$82.53
Record
57%
10380-7788 (18168)
Both legs:
Invested
$238.1
Value
$241.19
PnL
+$3.09
Record
57%
6727-4975 (11702)
Invested
$205.96
Value
$206.17
PnL
+$0.21
Record
59%
62290-43460 (105750)
Invested
$155.86
Value
—
PnL
-$155.86
Record
58%
37915-27161 (65076)
Invested
$107
Value
$200
PnL
+$93
Record
58%
51019-37168 (88187)
Invested
$95.71
Value
—
PnL
-$95.71
Record
34%
18834-35827 (54661)
Invested
$55.42
Value
$59.99
PnL
+$6.68
Record
64%
23388-12902 (36290)
Invested
$35.64
Value
$28
PnL
-$7.64
Record
66%
125935-64835 (190770)
Invested
$17
Value
—
PnL
-$17
Record
73%
95030-35654 (130684)
Invested
$70.38
Value
—
PnL
-$70.38
Record
57%
71009-54091 (125100)
Invested
$13.56
Value
$12
PnL
-$1.56
Record
61%
95030-59937 (154967)
Invested
$11.88
Value
$22
PnL
+$10.12
Record
58%
60607-44251 (104858)
Invested
$4.8
Value
—
PnL
-$4.8
Record
47%
441-501 (942)
Invested
$6.63
Value
—
PnL
-$6.63
Record
52%
90443-84945 (175388)
Invested
$3.7
Value
—
PnL
-$3.7
Record
55%
17905-14498 (32403)
Invested
$0.61
Value
—
PnL
-$0.61
Record
56%
58145-44880 (103025)
Invested
$319.99
Value
$0
PnL
+$263.45
Record
38%
184-298 (482)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20108-19252 (39360)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Up — $1.2K
aswfadq1555
Up — $1.1K
38791873984189
CTRDown — $0
wzbbb
CTRDown — $0
trdyugiolkw
ARBArbitrage — excluded
peepeepoopoo24
Up — $241.19
0x50f7
Up — $206.17
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRDown — $0
PBot-6
Up — $200
Little-big
CTRDown — $0