Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
17
Down 71%
3 arb excluded
$4.2K
$539.51
Smart Money Signal
12 of 17 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$17.93 | 93% 23585-1776 (25361) |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 74.7¢ | $744.91 | $583.59 | -$161.33 | 57% 71009-54091 (125100) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 74.7¢ | $435.8 | $583.59 | +$147.78 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 23.4¢ | $309.11 | — | -$309.11 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 55.3¢ | $244.37 | $438.96 | +$194.6 | 58% 37915-27161 (65076) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Downavg 66.4¢ | $236.85 | $228.49 | -$8.36 | 57% 6727-4975 (11702) |
38 38791873984189 | Downavg 47.5¢ | $218.7 | $460.88 | +$242.18 | 46% 7988-9443 (17431) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Downavg 72.5¢ | $219.09 | $183.87 | -$35.22 | 57% 7932-6096 (14028) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 72.5¢ | $133.23 | $183.87 | +$50.64 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 34.2¢ | $85.86 | — | -$85.86 | |
LI Little-big | Downavg 51.7¢ | $103.5 | $200 | +$96.5 | 34% 18834-35827 (54661) |
PB PBot-6ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $99 | $100 | +$1 | 58% 51019-37168 (88187) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49¢ | $49 | $100 | +$51 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $50 | — | -$50 | |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 59¢ | $79.5 | — | -$79.5 | 58% 60607-44251 (104858) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 55.5¢ | $28.84 | $33.13 | +$4.29 | 52% 90443-84945 (175388) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Downavg 50.8¢ | $37.5 | $73.86 | +$36.36 | 57% 12686-9388 (22074) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 56.8¢ | $27.97 | $34.75 | +$6.79 | 66% 125935-64835 (190770) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 55.8¢ | $25.34 | $30.65 | +$5.31 | 61% 95030-59937 (154967) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $28.68 | $59.76 | +$31.08 | 56% 58145-44880 (103025) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 58.2¢ | $76.21 | — | -$44.08 | 64% 23388-12902 (36290) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $15 | $20 | +$5 | 50% 7854-7882 (15736) |
TM tmsd-test<$100 | Downavg 39¢ | $13.65 | $35 | +$21.35 | 54% 14477-12310 (26787) |
TH TheImpasseCTR<$100 | Upavg 8¢ | $2 | — | -$2 | 22% 144-523 (667) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 16.5¢ | $8.02 | — | +$12.13 | 51% 20108-19252 (39360) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 66% 112233-58692 (170925) |
Invested
$1,745.06
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$17.93
Record
93%
23585-1776 (25361)
Invested
$744.91
Value
$583.59
PnL
-$161.33
Record
57%
71009-54091 (125100)
Both legs:
Invested
$244.37
Value
$438.96
PnL
+$194.6
Record
58%
37915-27161 (65076)
Invested
$236.85
Value
$228.49
PnL
-$8.36
Record
57%
6727-4975 (11702)
Invested
$218.7
Value
$460.88
PnL
+$242.18
Record
46%
7988-9443 (17431)
Invested
$219.09
Value
$183.87
PnL
-$35.22
Record
57%
7932-6096 (14028)
Both legs:
Invested
$103.5
Value
$200
PnL
+$96.5
Record
34%
18834-35827 (54661)
Invested
$99
Value
$100
PnL
+$1
Record
58%
51019-37168 (88187)
Both legs:
Invested
$79.5
Value
—
PnL
-$79.5
Record
58%
60607-44251 (104858)
Invested
$28.84
Value
$33.13
PnL
+$4.29
Record
52%
90443-84945 (175388)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$37.5
Value
$73.86
PnL
+$36.36
Record
57%
12686-9388 (22074)
Invested
$27.97
Value
$34.75
PnL
+$6.79
Record
66%
125935-64835 (190770)
Invested
$25.34
Value
$30.65
PnL
+$5.31
Record
61%
95030-59937 (154967)
Invested
$28.68
Value
$59.76
PnL
+$31.08
Record
56%
58145-44880 (103025)
Invested
$76.21
Value
—
PnL
-$44.08
Record
64%
23388-12902 (36290)
Invested
$15
Value
$20
PnL
+$5
Record
50%
7854-7882 (15736)
Invested
$13.65
Value
$35
PnL
+$21.35
Record
54%
14477-12310 (26787)
Invested
$2
Value
—
PnL
-$2
Record
22%
144-523 (667)
Invested
$8.02
Value
—
PnL
+$12.13
Record
51%
20108-19252 (39360)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
66%
112233-58692 (170925)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $1.8K
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $438.96
peepeepoopoo24
Down — $228.49
38791873984189
Down — $460.88
wzbbb
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Little-big
Down — $200
PBot-6
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRUp — $0
dvasdkasodk
Down — $33.13