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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

18

Down 72%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

-$18.56

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 18 top traders (72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders
Total Value$4.0K
Total Shares3,979
Combined PnL+$255.14
Up5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares814
Combined PnL-$273.7
Down — 72%Up — 28%
HO
hoodquant
Down

Invested

$1,417.37

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$20.62

Record

93%

23585-1776 (25361)

TR
trdyugiolkw
Down

Invested

$997.84

Value

$953.27

PnL

-$44.58

Record

57%

10380-7788 (18168)

WZ
wzbbbARB<$100
Down

Invested

$546.04

Value

$494.4

PnL

-$51.64

Record

57%

7932-6096 (14028)

Both legs:

Down$339.968.7¢+$154.5
Up$206.1429.7¢-$206.14
TH
thesidehustle
Down

Invested

$497.49

Value

$480.63

PnL

-$16.86

Record

54%

10935-9316 (20251)

AS
aswfadq1555ARB<$100
Down

Invested

$357.55

Value

$272

PnL

-$85.55

Record

54%

15363-13243 (28606)

Both legs:

Up$152.5937.9¢-$152.59
Down$204.9675.4¢+$67.04
38
38791873984189
Down

Invested

$260.47

Value

$541.89

PnL

+$281.42

Record

46%

7988-9443 (17431)

UN
uninformedflowwCTR
Up

Invested

$231.05

Value

—

PnL

-$231.05

Record

57%

71009-54091 (125100)

PE
peepeepoopoo24
Down

Invested

$277.62

Value

$265.09

PnL

-$12.53

Record

57%

6727-4975 (11702)

0X
0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819
Down

Invested

$83.4

Value

$116

PnL

+$32.6

Record

47%

441-501 (942)

AS
asdaefef<$100
Down

Invested

$65.79

Value

$57.19

PnL

-$8.6

Record

66%

125935-64835 (190770)

KA
Kathod-Shi-14<$100
Down

Invested

$48.6

Value

$50.06

PnL

+$1.46

Record

55%

17905-14498 (32403)

AS
asidjasiodja<$100
Down

Invested

$39.23

Value

$36.68

PnL

-$2.55

Record

61%

95030-59937 (154967)

DE
devonpollCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$19.58

Value

—

PnL

-$19.58

Record

51%

20108-19252 (39360)

GO
GoodRecipientCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$8.1

Value

—

PnL

-$8.1

Record

43%

613-797 (1410)

0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100
Down

Invested

$19.25

Value

$25

PnL

+$5.75

Record

56%

58145-44880 (103025)

AA
aaa221CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$39.1

Value

—

PnL

-$13.72

Record

64%

23388-12902 (36290)

DV
dvasdkasodk<$100
Down

Invested

$10.87

Value

$7.08

PnL

-$3.79

Record

52%

90443-84945 (175388)

Atomforge<$100
Down

Invested

$3.7

Value

$5.29

PnL

+$1.59

Record

65%

4069-2205 (6274)

AS
asabovesobelow2<$100
Down

Invested

$1.75

Value

$2.36

PnL

+$0.61

Record

69%

1636-737 (2373)

0X
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$1.25

Value

—

PnL

-$1.25

Record

58%

37915-27161 (65076)

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Market Info

Condition ID
0x1bb7e656...e29758
Slug
btc-updown-15m-1793383200

Traders in this Market

HO

hoodquant

Down — $1.4K

+$20.62
TR

trdyugiolkw

Down — $953.27

-$44.58
WZ

wzbbb

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$51.64
TH

thesidehustle

Down — $480.63

-$16.86
AS

aswfadq1555

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$85.55
38

38791873984189

Down — $541.89

+$281.42
UN

uninformedfloww

CTR

Up — $0

-$231.05
PE

peepeepoopoo24

Down — $265.09

-$12.53
0X

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819

Down — $116

+$32.6
AS

asdaefef

Down — $57.19

-$8.6
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