Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
20
Down 60%
1 arb excluded
$4.2K
-$358.29
Smart Money Signal
12 of 20 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.3¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$18.79 | 93% 23541-1774 (25315) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Downavg 67.2¢ | $738.17 | $652.74 | -$85.43 | 57% 10363-7780 (18143) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 60.1¢ | $577.49 | $536.65 | -$40.84 | 57% 7914-6084 (13998) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 65.5¢ | $495.84 | $416.79 | -$79.05 | 56% 14501-11415 (25916) |
TH thesidehustle | Downavg 76.4¢ | $398.37 | $326.27 | -$72.11 | 54% 10935-9316 (20251) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Downavg 93.8¢ | $487.73 | $318 | -$169.73 | 54% 15356-13237 (28593) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Downavg 70.1¢ | $230.59 | $247.34 | +$16.76 | 57% 6721-4971 (11692) |
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819 | Downavg 56¢ | $176.48 | $315.33 | +$138.85 | 47% 440-499 (939) |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Upavg 20.1¢ | $60.01 | $60 | -$0.01 | 57% 70965-54043 (125008) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 20.1¢ | $43.21 | — | -$43.21 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 28¢ | $16.8 | $60 | +$43.2 | |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 80.8¢ | $83.76 | $66.25 | -$17.51 | 66% 125885-64811 (190696) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Downavg 65.3¢ | $42.85 | $62.97 | +$20.12 | 50% 7850-7871 (15721) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 55.7¢ | $51.88 | $37.92 | -$0.77 | 64% 23325-12863 (36188) |
GO GoodRecipient<$100 | Downavg 68.3¢ | $31.39 | $29.99 | -$1.4 | 43% 611-796 (1407) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Upavg 54¢ | $24.3 | — | -$24.3 | 34% 18828-35821 (54649) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 41.7¢ | $14.65 | — | -$14.65 | 61% 94986-59906 (154892) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $10.71 | — | -$10.71 | 58% 60586-44234 (104820) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 19¢ | $17.1 | — | -$17.1 | 51% 20092-19247 (39339) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 25¢ | $1.25 | — | -$1.25 | 58% 37890-27130 (65020) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 16¢ | $1.87 | — | -$1.87 | 52% 90403-84904 (175307) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 33.3¢ | $16.05 | — | -$16.05 | 55% 17859-14473 (32332) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 66% 112214-58657 (170871) |
Invested
$1,072.21
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$18.79
Record
93%
23541-1774 (25315)
Invested
$738.17
Value
$652.74
PnL
-$85.43
Record
57%
10363-7780 (18143)
Invested
$577.49
Value
$536.65
PnL
-$40.84
Record
57%
7914-6084 (13998)
Invested
$495.84
Value
$416.79
PnL
-$79.05
Record
56%
14501-11415 (25916)
Invested
$398.37
Value
$326.27
PnL
-$72.11
Record
54%
10935-9316 (20251)
Invested
$487.73
Value
$318
PnL
-$169.73
Record
54%
15356-13237 (28593)
Invested
$230.59
Value
$247.34
PnL
+$16.76
Record
57%
6721-4971 (11692)
Invested
$176.48
Value
$315.33
PnL
+$138.85
Record
47%
440-499 (939)
Invested
$60.01
Value
$60
PnL
-$0.01
Record
57%
70965-54043 (125008)
Both legs:
Invested
$83.76
Value
$66.25
PnL
-$17.51
Record
66%
125885-64811 (190696)
Invested
$42.85
Value
$62.97
PnL
+$20.12
Record
50%
7850-7871 (15721)
Invested
$51.88
Value
$37.92
PnL
-$0.77
Record
64%
23325-12863 (36188)
Invested
$31.39
Value
$29.99
PnL
-$1.4
Record
43%
611-796 (1407)
Invested
$24.3
Value
—
PnL
-$24.3
Record
34%
18828-35821 (54649)
Invested
$14.65
Value
—
PnL
-$14.65
Record
61%
94986-59906 (154892)
Invested
$10.71
Value
—
PnL
-$10.71
Record
58%
60586-44234 (104820)
Invested
$17.1
Value
—
PnL
-$17.1
Record
51%
20092-19247 (39339)
Invested
$1.25
Value
—
PnL
-$1.25
Record
58%
37890-27130 (65020)
Invested
$1.87
Value
—
PnL
-$1.87
Record
52%
90403-84904 (175307)
Invested
$16.05
Value
—
PnL
-$16.05
Record
55%
17859-14473 (32332)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
66%
112214-58657 (170871)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $1.1K
trdyugiolkw
Down — $652.74
wzbbb
Down — $536.65
CrouchPredictions
Down — $416.79
thesidehustle
Down — $326.27
aswfadq1555
Down — $318
peepeepoopoo24
Down — $247.34
0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819
Down — $315.33
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdaefef
Down — $66.25