Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
17
Up 53%
7 arb excluded
$6.4K
-$203.57
Smart Money Signal
9 of 17 top traders (53%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Upavg 57.3¢ | $1.8K | $1.6K | -$181.15 | 56% 14501-11415 (25916) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 57.3¢ | $901.56 | $1.6K | +$671.67 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 74.1¢ | $852.82 | — | -$852.82 | |
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$50.65 | 57% 10363-7780 (18143) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $539.18 | $1.1K | +$539.85 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.2¢ | $489.2 | — | -$489.2 | |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 41.9¢ | $623.06 | $511.48 | -$111.58 | 57% 70965-54043 (125008) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 41.9¢ | $517.58 | — | -$517.58 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 20.6¢ | $105.48 | $511.48 | +$406 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.9¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$14.66 | 93% 23541-1774 (25315) |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Downavg 67.9¢ | $572.55 | $325.64 | -$246.91 | 54% 15356-13237 (28593) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 67.9¢ | $399.05 | — | -$399.05 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53.3¢ | $173.5 | $325.64 | +$152.14 | |
TH thesidehustleARB<$100 | Upavg 66.9¢ | $410.36 | $395.01 | -$15.35 | 54% 10935-9316 (20251) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 66.9¢ | $264.43 | $395.01 | +$130.58 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60¢ | $145.93 | — | -$145.93 | |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Downavg 60.7¢ | $212.75 | $281.82 | +$69.07 | 57% 7914-6084 (13998) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 26.6¢ | $74.86 | $281.82 | +$206.96 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60.7¢ | $137.89 | — | -$137.89 | |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Downavg 72.6¢ | $290.64 | $253.66 | -$36.99 | 57% 6721-4971 (11692) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55.1¢ | $139.79 | $253.66 | +$113.87 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 72.6¢ | $150.85 | — | -$150.85 | |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 92.3¢ | $204.86 | $222 | +$17.14 | 77% 9417-2836 (12253) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $98 | — | -$98 | 46% 7970-9410 (17380) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $98 | — | -$98 | 58% 51009-37160 (88169) |
AS asabovesobelow2 | Upavg 94.5¢ | $121.5 | $128.54 | +$7.04 | 69% 1634-737 (2371) |
DE devonpoll | Upavg 7.1¢ | $10.99 | $105.69 | +$103.5 | 51% 20092-19247 (39339) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 53.7¢ | $45.52 | — | -$45.52 | 66% 125885-64811 (190696) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 74.1¢ | $89.17 | — | -$82.4 | 64% 23325-12863 (36188) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Downavg 49.1¢ | $27 | — | -$27 | 50% 7850-7871 (15721) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 19.6¢ | $9.76 | — | -$9.76 | 52% 90403-84904 (175307) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100 | Upavg 43¢ | $21.5 | $50 | +$28.5 | 73% 95029-35654 (130683) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $41.11 | $40.36 | -$0.75 | 58% 37890-27130 (65020) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 35.2¢ | $11.25 | — | -$11.25 | 61% 94986-59906 (154892) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Upavg 92.6¢ | $34.3 | $37.05 | +$2.75 | 65% 4064-2202 (6266) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 78¢ | $19.5 | $25 | +$5.5 | 58% 60586-44234 (104820) |
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819CTR<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $14.4 | — | -$14.4 | 47% 440-499 (939) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 57.4¢ | $5.95 | $10.36 | +$4.41 | 55% 17859-14473 (32332) |
Invested
$1,754.39
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$181.15
Record
56%
14501-11415 (25916)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,028.39
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$50.65
Record
57%
10363-7780 (18143)
Both legs:
Invested
$623.06
Value
$511.48
PnL
-$111.58
Record
57%
70965-54043 (125008)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,333.41
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$14.66
Record
93%
23541-1774 (25315)
Invested
$572.55
Value
$325.64
PnL
-$246.91
Record
54%
15356-13237 (28593)
Both legs:
Invested
$410.36
Value
$395.01
PnL
-$15.35
Record
54%
10935-9316 (20251)
Both legs:
Invested
$212.75
Value
$281.82
PnL
+$69.07
Record
57%
7914-6084 (13998)
Both legs:
Invested
$290.64
Value
$253.66
PnL
-$36.99
Record
57%
6721-4971 (11692)
Both legs:
NIULAI4Invested
$204.86
Value
$222
PnL
+$17.14
Record
77%
9417-2836 (12253)
Invested
$98
Value
—
PnL
-$98
Record
46%
7970-9410 (17380)
Invested
$98
Value
—
PnL
-$98
Record
58%
51009-37160 (88169)
Invested
$121.5
Value
$128.54
PnL
+$7.04
Record
69%
1634-737 (2371)
Invested
$10.99
Value
$105.69
PnL
+$103.5
Record
51%
20092-19247 (39339)
Invested
$45.52
Value
—
PnL
-$45.52
Record
66%
125885-64811 (190696)
Invested
$89.17
Value
—
PnL
-$82.4
Record
64%
23325-12863 (36188)
Invested
$27
Value
—
PnL
-$27
Record
50%
7850-7871 (15721)
Invested
$9.76
Value
—
PnL
-$9.76
Record
52%
90403-84904 (175307)
Invested
$21.5
Value
$50
PnL
+$28.5
Record
73%
95029-35654 (130683)
Invested
$41.11
Value
$40.36
PnL
-$0.75
Record
58%
37890-27130 (65020)
Invested
$11.25
Value
—
PnL
-$11.25
Record
61%
94986-59906 (154892)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$34.3
Value
$37.05
PnL
+$2.75
Record
65%
4064-2202 (6266)
Invested
$19.5
Value
$25
PnL
+$5.5
Record
58%
60586-44234 (104820)
Invested
$14.4
Value
—
PnL
-$14.4
Record
47%
440-499 (939)
Invested
$5.95
Value
$10.36
PnL
+$4.41
Record
55%
17859-14473 (32332)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
trdyugiolkw
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Up — $1.3K
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded
thesidehustle
ARBArbitrage — excluded
wzbbb
ARBArbitrage — excluded
peepeepoopoo24
ARBArbitrage — excluded
NIULAI4
Up — $222
38791873984189
CTRDown — $0