Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 35% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
34
Up 35%
1 arb excluded
$3.9K
$-2.7K
Smart Money Signal
12 of 34 top traders (35%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 72.7¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.5K | 56% 14487-11403 (25890) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Downavg 49.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$58.29 | 57% 10352-7769 (18121) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR | Upavg 56.6¢ | $787.81 | — | -$787.81 | 54% 15350-13232 (28582) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.2¢ | $866.34 | $882 | +$15.66 | 93% 23498-1772 (25270) |
BO bosonaCTR | Upavg 52¢ | $304.82 | — | -$304.82 | 55% 49717-39929 (89646) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 56.3¢ | $413.49 | — | -$413.49 | 67% 99557-47950 (147507) |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Upavg 41.5¢ | $753.44 | $247.36 | -$506.08 | 57% 70922-54007 (124929) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 81.9¢ | $202.56 | $247.36 | +$44.8 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.5¢ | $550.87 | — | -$550.87 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 71.1¢ | $216.19 | $304 | +$87.81 | 58% 37856-27105 (64961) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 45.7¢ | $159.47 | $254.65 | +$95.18 | 57% 7900-6063 (13963) |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 94.8¢ | $213.35 | $225 | +$11.65 | 77% 9410-2830 (12240) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 79.1¢ | $196.69 | $196.14 | -$0.55 | 55% 44953-37390 (82343) |
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR | Upavg 53.4¢ | $156.09 | — | -$156.09 | 57% 6711-4969 (11680) |
LI Little-bigCTR | Upavg 49.7¢ | $111.17 | — | -$111.17 | 34% 18818-35816 (54634) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 52.6¢ | $75.97 | $85.99 | +$10.02 | 66% 125851-64777 (190628) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $66.66 | $75.41 | +$8.75 | 61% 94946-59871 (154817) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 39.3¢ | $60.22 | — | -$60.22 | 52% 90356-84870 (175226) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 77¢ | $72.25 | — | -$72.25 | 55% 17817-14432 (32249) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $37.5 | $50 | +$12.5 | 58% 60561-44221 (104782) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 75.9¢ | $63.72 | $60 | +$14.83 | 64% 23273-12819 (36092) |
AS asabovesobelow2<$100 | Downavg 94.7¢ | $43.75 | $46.22 | +$2.47 | 69% 1633-735 (2368) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 88.2¢ | $39.3 | $44.55 | +$5.25 | 56% 58095-44840 (102935) |
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819<$100 | Downavg 68.5¢ | $27.4 | $40 | +$12.6 | 47% 440-497 (937) |
 wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $37.5 | — | -$37.5 | 57% 12662-9360 (22022) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $34.66 | — | -$34.66 | 46% 7951-9381 (17332) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $32 | $25 | -$7 | 64% 40124-22950 (63074) |
Invested
$1,523.11
Value
—
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
56%
14487-11403 (25890)
Invested
$1,190.06
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$58.29
Record
57%
10352-7769 (18121)
Invested
$787.81
Value
—
PnL
-$787.81
Record
54%
15350-13232 (28582)
Invested
$866.34
Value
$882
PnL
+$15.66
Record
93%
23498-1772 (25270)
Invested
$304.82
Value
—
PnL
-$304.82
Record
55%
49717-39929 (89646)
Invested
$413.49
Value
—
PnL
-$413.49
Record
67%
99557-47950 (147507)
Invested
$753.44
Value
$247.36
PnL
-$506.08
Record
57%
70922-54007 (124929)
Both legs:
Invested
$216.19
Value
$304
PnL
+$87.81
Record
58%
37856-27105 (64961)
Invested
$159.47
Value
$254.65
PnL
+$95.18
Record
57%
7900-6063 (13963)
NIULAI4Invested
$213.35
Value
$225
PnL
+$11.65
Record
77%
9410-2830 (12240)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$196.69
Value
$196.14
PnL
-$0.55
Record
55%
44953-37390 (82343)
Invested
$156.09
Value
—
PnL
-$156.09
Record
57%
6711-4969 (11680)
Invested
$111.17
Value
—
PnL
-$111.17
Record
34%
18818-35816 (54634)
Invested
$75.97
Value
$85.99
PnL
+$10.02
Record
66%
125851-64777 (190628)
Invested
$66.66
Value
$75.41
PnL
+$8.75
Record
61%
94946-59871 (154817)
Invested
$60.22
Value
—
PnL
-$60.22
Record
52%
90356-84870 (175226)
Invested
$72.25
Value
—
PnL
-$72.25
Record
55%
17817-14432 (32249)
Invested
$37.5
Value
$50
PnL
+$12.5
Record
58%
60561-44221 (104782)
Invested
$63.72
Value
$60
PnL
+$14.83
Record
64%
23273-12819 (36092)
Invested
$43.75
Value
$46.22
PnL
+$2.47
Record
69%
1633-735 (2368)
Invested
$39.3
Value
$44.55
PnL
+$5.25
Record
56%
58095-44840 (102935)
Invested
$27.4
Value
$40
PnL
+$12.6
Record
47%
440-497 (937)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$37.5
Value
—
PnL
-$37.5
Record
57%
12662-9360 (22022)
Invested
$34.66
Value
—
PnL
-$34.66
Record
46%
7951-9381 (17332)
ohioism<$100Invested
$32
Value
$25
PnL
-$7
Record
64%
40124-22950 (63074)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
CrouchPredictions
CTRUp — $0
trdyugiolkw
Down — $1.2K
aswfadq1555
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $882
bosona
CTRUp — $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $304
wzbbb
Down — $254.65
NIULAI4
Down — $225