Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET
Resolved Up. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
18
Up 82%
1 arb excluded
$5.4K
-$432.33
Smart Money Signal
15 of 18 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 92.7¢ | $3.2K | $3.3K | +$54.15 | 67% 99557-47950 (147507) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 65.7¢ | $551.21 | $833.29 | +$282.08 | 57% 70922-54007 (124929) |
IM ImgonnadoitCTR | Downavg 39.8¢ | $703.63 | — | -$703.63 | 37% 169-284 (453) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Upavg 79.2¢ | $574.7 | $520.43 | -$54.27 | 57% 10352-7769 (18121) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Upavg 81.5¢ | $158.07 | $145.33 | -$12.74 | 54% 15350-13232 (28582) |
TH thismonthCTR | Downavg 25.2¢ | $150 | — | -$150 | 34% 594-1147 (1741) |
LI Little-big | Upavg 50.6¢ | $101.29 | $200 | +$98.71 | 34% 18818-35816 (54634) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $86.5 | — | -$86.5 | 58% 37856-27105 (64961) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Upavg 61.7¢ | $76.29 | $70 | -$6.29 | 57% 7900-6063 (13963) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 61.7¢ | $43.2 | $70 | +$26.8 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 36¢ | $33.09 | — | -$33.09 | |
38 38791873984189 | Upavg 49¢ | $50.34 | $102.73 | +$52.39 | 46% 7951-9381 (17332) |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Upavg 66.8¢ | $36.7 | $50 | +$13.3 | 57% 6711-4969 (11680) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $33.12 | $67.59 | +$34.47 | 58% 51007-37153 (88160) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 83.4¢ | $24.19 | $29 | +$4.81 | 55% 44953-37390 (82343) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 77.5¢ | $19.6 | $25.27 | +$5.67 | 55% 17817-14432 (32249) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 60.3¢ | $21.32 | $35.35 | +$14.03 | 64% 23273-12819 (36092) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 83.3¢ | $13.4 | $14.09 | +$0.69 | 61% 94946-59871 (154817) |
CR CrouchPredictions<$100 | Upavg 52.3¢ | $14.02 | $26.82 | +$12.8 | 56% 14487-11403 (25890) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 86.2¢ | $10.57 | $12.27 | +$1.7 | 66% 125851-64777 (190628) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 74¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20087-19234 (39321) |
Invested
$3,249.13
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$54.15
Record
67%
99557-47950 (147507)
Invested
$551.21
Value
$833.29
PnL
+$282.08
Record
57%
70922-54007 (124929)
Invested
$703.63
Value
—
PnL
-$703.63
Record
37%
169-284 (453)
Invested
$574.7
Value
$520.43
PnL
-$54.27
Record
57%
10352-7769 (18121)
Invested
$158.07
Value
$145.33
PnL
-$12.74
Record
54%
15350-13232 (28582)
Invested
$150
Value
—
PnL
-$150
Record
34%
594-1147 (1741)
Invested
$101.29
Value
$200
PnL
+$98.71
Record
34%
18818-35816 (54634)
Invested
$86.5
Value
—
PnL
-$86.5
Record
58%
37856-27105 (64961)
Invested
$76.29
Value
$70
PnL
-$6.29
Record
57%
7900-6063 (13963)
Both legs:
Invested
$50.34
Value
$102.73
PnL
+$52.39
Record
46%
7951-9381 (17332)
Invested
$36.7
Value
$50
PnL
+$13.3
Record
57%
6711-4969 (11680)
Invested
$33.12
Value
$67.59
PnL
+$34.47
Record
58%
51007-37153 (88160)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$24.19
Value
$29
PnL
+$4.81
Record
55%
44953-37390 (82343)
Invested
$19.6
Value
$25.27
PnL
+$5.67
Record
55%
17817-14432 (32249)
Invested
$21.32
Value
$35.35
PnL
+$14.03
Record
64%
23273-12819 (36092)
Invested
$13.4
Value
$14.09
PnL
+$0.69
Record
61%
94946-59871 (154817)
Invested
$14.02
Value
$26.82
PnL
+$12.8
Record
56%
14487-11403 (25890)
Invested
$10.57
Value
$12.27
PnL
+$1.7
Record
66%
125851-64777 (190628)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20087-19234 (39321)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $3.3K
uninformedfloww
Up — $833.29
Imgonnadoit
CTRDown — $0
trdyugiolkw
Up — $520.43
aswfadq1555
Up — $145.33
thismonth
CTRDown — $0
Little-big
Up — $200
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRDown — $0
wzbbb
ARBArbitrage — excluded
38791873984189
Up — $102.73