Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
18
Up 65%
5 arb excluded
$8.6K
$24.76
Smart Money Signal
12 of 18 top traders (67%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 74.2¢ | $3.4K | $4.3K | +$872.26 | 67% 99557-47950 (147507) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Upavg 81¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$102.88 | 56% 14487-11403 (25890) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 81¢ | $1.1K | $1.4K | +$265.95 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 14.6¢ | $163.07 | — | -$163.07 | |
IM ImgonnadoitCTR | Downavg 31¢ | $645.47 | — | -$645.47 | 37% 169-284 (453) |
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100 | Upavg 81.1¢ | $790.59 | $810.34 | +$19.75 | 57% 10352-7769 (18121) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 81.1¢ | $657 | $810.34 | +$153.34 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 17.6¢ | $133.59 | — | -$133.59 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.9¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$13.76 | 93% 23498-1772 (25270) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 33.3¢ | $365.5 | — | -$365.5 | 57% 70922-54007 (124929) |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Upavg 79.4¢ | $162.88 | $138.01 | -$24.88 | 54% 15350-13232 (28582) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 13.2¢ | $53.31 | — | -$53.31 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 79.4¢ | $109.57 | $138.01 | +$28.44 | |
PB PBot-6 | Upavg 49.6¢ | $169.69 | $342.24 | +$172.55 | 58% 51007-37153 (88160) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Upavg 64¢ | $57.29 | $52 | -$5.29 | 57% 7900-6063 (13963) |
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100 | Downavg 22¢ | $42.68 | — | -$42.68 | 54% 14470-12305 (26775) |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Upavg 72.8¢ | $62.56 | $70 | +$7.44 | 57% 6711-4969 (11680) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 72.8¢ | $50.96 | $70 | +$19.04 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 17.8¢ | $11.6 | — | -$11.6 | |
AS asdaefefARB<$100 | Upavg 89¢ | $62.65 | $63.28 | +$0.63 | 66% 125851-64777 (190628) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 89¢ | $56.29 | $63.28 | +$6.99 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 10.1¢ | $6.36 | — | -$6.36 | |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 79.7¢ | $52.85 | $61.21 | +$8.36 | 55% 17817-14432 (32249) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $36.5 | $50 | +$13.5 | 58% 37856-27105 (64961) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 73.9¢ | $19.96 | $20.45 | +$0.49 | 61% 94946-59871 (154817) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 72.9¢ | $17.17 | $17.16 | -$0.01 | 52% 90356-84870 (175226) |
GO GoodRecipientCTR<$100 | Downavg 20.8¢ | $8.3 | — | -$8.3 | 43% 611-794 (1405) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 75¢ | $18.96 | $25.28 | +$6.32 | 64% 40124-22950 (63074) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 71.6¢ | $16.46 | $23 | +$6.54 | 55% 44953-37390 (82343) |
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819CTR<$100 | Downavg 19¢ | $3.8 | — | -$3.8 | 47% 440-497 (937) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 64¢ | $19.98 | $8.93 | +$2.49 | 64% 23273-12819 (36092) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 9¢ | $0.45 | — | -$0.45 | 58% 60561-44221 (104782) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20087-19234 (39321) |
Invested
$3,396.2
Value
$4.3K
PnL
+$872.26
Record
67%
99557-47950 (147507)
Invested
$1,297.69
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$102.88
Record
56%
14487-11403 (25890)
Both legs:
Invested
$645.47
Value
—
PnL
-$645.47
Record
37%
169-284 (453)
Invested
$790.59
Value
$810.34
PnL
+$19.75
Record
57%
10352-7769 (18121)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,221.17
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$13.76
Record
93%
23498-1772 (25270)
Invested
$365.5
Value
—
PnL
-$365.5
Record
57%
70922-54007 (124929)
Invested
$162.88
Value
$138.01
PnL
-$24.88
Record
54%
15350-13232 (28582)
Both legs:
Invested
$169.69
Value
$342.24
PnL
+$172.55
Record
58%
51007-37153 (88160)
Invested
$57.29
Value
$52
PnL
-$5.29
Record
57%
7900-6063 (13963)
Invested
$42.68
Value
—
PnL
-$42.68
Record
54%
14470-12305 (26775)
Invested
$62.56
Value
$70
PnL
+$7.44
Record
57%
6711-4969 (11680)
Both legs:
Invested
$62.65
Value
$63.28
PnL
+$0.63
Record
66%
125851-64777 (190628)
Both legs:
Invested
$52.85
Value
$61.21
PnL
+$8.36
Record
55%
17817-14432 (32249)
Invested
$36.5
Value
$50
PnL
+$13.5
Record
58%
37856-27105 (64961)
Invested
$19.96
Value
$20.45
PnL
+$0.49
Record
61%
94946-59871 (154817)
Invested
$17.17
Value
$17.16
PnL
-$0.01
Record
52%
90356-84870 (175226)
Invested
$8.3
Value
—
PnL
-$8.3
Record
43%
611-794 (1405)
ohioism<$100Invested
$18.96
Value
$25.28
PnL
+$6.32
Record
64%
40124-22950 (63074)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$16.46
Value
$23
PnL
+$6.54
Record
55%
44953-37390 (82343)
Invested
$3.8
Value
—
PnL
-$3.8
Record
47%
440-497 (937)
Invested
$19.98
Value
$8.93
PnL
+$2.49
Record
64%
23273-12819 (36092)
Invested
$0.45
Value
—
PnL
-$0.45
Record
58%
60561-44221 (104782)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20087-19234 (39321)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $4.3K
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Imgonnadoit
CTRDown — $0
trdyugiolkw
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Up — $1.2K
uninformedfloww
CTRDown — $0
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded
PBot-6
Up — $342.24
wzbbb
Up — $52
tmsd-test
CTRDown — $0