Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

Resolved Up. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 76%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.4K

Combined PnL

$521.03

Smart Money Signal

17 of 22 top traders (77%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up17 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares6,366

Combined PnL+$729.6

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares624

Combined PnL-$208.57

Up — 77%Down — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 72.1¢	$5.0K	$3.5K	$-1.5K	68% 99525-47913 (147438)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.3¢	$2.5K	—	$-2.5K
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.1¢	$2.5K	$3.5K	+$971.05
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 76.2¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$226.87	56% 14444-11357 (25801)
TR trdyugiolkw	Upavg 62.1¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$131.48	57% 10339-7761 (18100)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.6¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$17.09	93% 23467-1770 (25237)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Downavg 25.9¢	$737.21	$225.04	-$512.18	57% 70901-53981 (124882)
└ Down leg	Downavg 25.9¢	$637.64	—	-$637.64
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.2¢	$99.57	$225.04	+$125.47
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 48.1¢	$465.12	$600.73	+$135.61	57% 7881-6054 (13935)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 73.3¢	$378.61	$319.29	-$59.32	57% 6707-4966 (11673)
BoneOhio	Upavg 68¢	$235.76	$300.36	+$64.6	74% 102458-36400 (138858)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 85.5¢	$153.96	$180	+$26.04	55% 44917-37366 (82283)
DV dvasdkasodkARB<$100	Upavg 60.1¢	$106.89	$124.75	+$17.86	52% 90329-84819 (175148)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.1¢	$74.99	$124.75	+$49.76
└ Down leg	Downavg 20.3¢	$31.9	—	-$31.9
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 42¢	$64.03	$150.08	+$86.05	58% 60547-44207 (104754)
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Upavg 67.2¢	$85.48	$97.91	+$12.43	66% 125811-64748 (190559)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.2¢	$65.79	$97.91	+$32.12
└ Down leg	Downavg 13.5¢	$19.69	—	-$19.69
AS asidjasiodjaARB<$100	Upavg 68.9¢	$81.8	$96.74	+$14.94	61% 94915-59834 (154749)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.9¢	$66.64	$96.74	+$30.1
└ Down leg	Downavg 11.1¢	$15.16	—	-$15.16
LI Little-bigCTR	Downavg 51.1¢	$102.2	—	-$102.2	34% 18806-35806 (54612)
DE devonpoll	Upavg 60.8¢	$314.62	$92.16	+$21.03	51% 20077-19224 (39301)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 78.5¢	$78.17	$60	-$8.52	64% 23206-12791 (35997)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 60.5¢	$34.5	$57	+$22.5	55% 17781-14392 (32173)
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100	Downavg 16.3¢	$34.59	—	-$34.59	54% 14469-12303 (26772)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Downavg 52¢	$39	—	-$39	57% 12656-9358 (22014)
NIULAI4<$100	Upavg 96.3¢	$41.39	$43	+$1.61	77% 9405-2826 (12231)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 93¢	$33.39	$33	-$0.39	64% 40110-22937 (63047)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 12¢	$13.27	—	-$13.27	66% 112173-58591 (170764)
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819CTR<$100	Downavg 71.4¢	$19.51	—	-$19.51	47% 440-497 (937)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 47¢	$16.85	$35.85	+$19	58% 37847-27088 (64935)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 51¢	$10.97	$21.51	+$10.54	62% 43835-26840 (70675)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$4,996.44

Value

$3.5K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

68%

99525-47913 (147438)

Both legs:

Down$2,492.3457.3¢$-2.5K

Up$2,504.172.1¢+$971.05

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$2,020.59

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$226.87

Record

56%

14444-11357 (25801)

trdyugiolkw

Invested

$1,300.39

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$131.48

Record

57%

10339-7761 (18100)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,208.3

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$17.09

Record

93%

23467-1770 (25237)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$737.21

Value

$225.04

PnL

-$512.18

Record

57%

70901-53981 (124882)

Both legs:

Down$637.6425.9¢-$637.64

Up$99.5744.2¢+$125.47

wzbbb

Invested

$465.12

Value

$600.73

PnL

+$135.61

Record

57%

7881-6054 (13935)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$378.61

Value

$319.29

PnL

-$59.32

Record

57%

6707-4966 (11673)

BoneOhio

Invested

$235.76

Value

$300.36

PnL

+$64.6

Record

74%

102458-36400 (138858)

MayorMamdani

Invested

$153.96

Value

$180

PnL

+$26.04

Record

55%

44917-37366 (82283)

dvasdkasodkARB<$100

Invested

$106.89

Value

$124.75

PnL

+$17.86

Record

52%

90329-84819 (175148)

Both legs:

Up$74.9960.1¢+$49.76

Down$31.920.3¢-$31.9

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$64.03

Value

$150.08

PnL

+$86.05

Record

58%

60547-44207 (104754)

asdaefefARB<$100

Invested

$85.48

Value

$97.91

PnL

+$12.43

Record

66%

125811-64748 (190559)

Both legs:

Up$65.7967.2¢+$32.12

Down$19.6913.5¢-$19.69

asidjasiodjaARB<$100

Invested

$81.8

Value

$96.74

PnL

+$14.94

Record

61%

94915-59834 (154749)

Both legs:

Up$66.6468.9¢+$30.1

Down$15.1611.1¢-$15.16

Little-bigCTR

Down

Invested

$102.2

Value

—

PnL

-$102.2

Record

34%

18806-35806 (54612)

devonpoll

Invested

$314.62

Value

$92.16

PnL

+$21.03

Record

51%

20077-19224 (39301)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$78.17

Value

$60

PnL

-$8.52

Record

64%

23206-12791 (35997)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$34.5

Value

$57

PnL

+$22.5

Record

55%

17781-14392 (32173)

tmsd-testCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$34.59

Value

—

PnL

-$34.59

Record

54%

14469-12303 (26772)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$39

Value

—

PnL

-$39

Record

57%

12656-9358 (22014)

NIULAI4<$100

Invested

$41.39

Value

$43

PnL

+$1.61

Record

77%

9405-2826 (12231)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$33.39

Value

$33

PnL

-$0.39

Record

64%

40110-22937 (63047)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$13.27

Value

—

PnL

-$13.27

Record

66%

112173-58591 (170764)

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$19.51

Value

—

PnL

-$19.51

Record

47%

440-497 (937)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$16.85

Value

$35.85

PnL

+$19

Record

58%

37847-27088 (64935)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$10.97

Value

$21.51

PnL

+$10.54

Record

62%

43835-26840 (70675)

Smart Money Signal

17 of 22 top traders (77%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x9d49fecd...57be29

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1793369700

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

$-1.5K

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.8K

-$226.87

trdyugiolkw

Up — $1.4K

+$131.48

hoodquant

Up — $1.2K

+$17.09

uninformedfloww

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$512.18

wzbbb

Up — $600.73

+$135.61

peepeepoopoo24

Up — $319.29

-$59.32

BoneOhio

Up — $300.36

+$64.6

MayorMamdani

Up — $180

dvasdkasodk

Arbitrage — excluded