Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

Resolved Down. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 86%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.7K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Signal

Down

24 of 29 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down24 traders

Total Value$15.2K

Total Shares15,175

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,377

Combined PnL-$268.6

Down — 83%Up — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 68.4¢	$3.9K	$4.2K	+$258.51	57% 70901-53981 (124882)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 77.9¢	$2.5K	$2.9K	+$410.74	68% 99525-47913 (147438)
AS aswfadq1555	Downavg 70.1¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$44.21	54% 15343-13227 (28570)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 71¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$161.79	56% 14444-11357 (25801)
TR trdyugiolkw	Downavg 75.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$25.93	57% 10339-7761 (18100)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.9¢	$525.59	$531.46	+$5.87	93% 23467-1770 (25237)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 68.9¢	$495.44	$523.06	+$27.62	57% 7881-6054 (13935)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 73¢	$490.63	$481.6	-$9.03	55% 50491-41087 (91578)
└ Down leg	Downavg 73¢	$351.57	$481.6	+$130.03
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.9¢	$139.06	—	-$139.06
MayorMamdani	Downavg 82.1¢	$462.97	$485.47	+$22.5	55% 44917-37366 (82283)
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 70.9¢	$371.21	$406.29	+$35.08	54% 10895-9292 (20187)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 69.1¢	$330.82	$478.62	+$147.8	56% 58073-44827 (102900)
BoneOhio	Downavg 70.2¢	$152.27	$216.78	+$64.51	74% 102458-36400 (138858)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 72.8¢	$136.15	$139.94	+$3.79	57% 6707-4966 (11673)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 48.9¢	$114.97	$235.24	+$120.27	58% 37847-27088 (64935)
IM ImgonnadoitCTR	Upavg 22.6¢	$250	—	-$250	37% 169-284 (453)
G-Penis-Monster	Downavg 59¢	$88.61	$150.18	+$61.57	62% 43835-26840 (70675)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 95.6¢	$69.03	$72.17	+$3.14	63% 51921-30603 (82524)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 80.8¢	$51.33	$51.29	-$0.04	61% 94915-59834 (154749)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Upavg 28.2¢	$38.4	—	-$38.4	57% 12656-9358 (22014)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 77.3¢	$58.52	$38.14	-$2.7	64% 23206-12791 (35997)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 59.5¢	$24.51	$24.21	-$0.3	66% 125811-64748 (190559)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 67.2¢	$18.35	$27.32	+$8.97	52% 90329-84819 (175148)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 58.8¢	$12.73	$21.66	+$8.93	66% 112173-58591 (170764)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 52¢	$11.14	$21.42	+$10.28	34% 18806-35806 (54612)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 4¢	$9	—	+$39.42	51% 20077-19224 (39301)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$3,918.57

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$258.51

Record

57%

70901-53981 (124882)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$2,500.37

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$410.74

Record

68%

99525-47913 (147438)

aswfadq1555

Down

Invested

$2,092.66

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$44.21

Record

54%

15343-13227 (28570)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,303.03

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$161.79

Record

56%

14444-11357 (25801)

trdyugiolkw

Down

Invested

$1,106.59

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$25.93

Record

57%

10339-7761 (18100)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$525.59

Value

$531.46

PnL

+$5.87

Record

93%

23467-1770 (25237)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$495.44

Value

$523.06

PnL

+$27.62

Record

57%

7881-6054 (13935)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$490.63

Value

$481.6

PnL

-$9.03

Record

55%

50491-41087 (91578)

Both legs:

Down$351.5773¢+$130.03

Up$139.0628.9¢-$139.06

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$462.97

Value

$485.47

PnL

+$22.5

Record

55%

44917-37366 (82283)

thesidehustle

Down

Invested

$371.21

Value

$406.29

PnL

+$35.08

Record

54%

10895-9292 (20187)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$330.82

Value

$478.62

PnL

+$147.8

Record

56%

58073-44827 (102900)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$152.27

Value

$216.78

PnL

+$64.51

Record

74%

102458-36400 (138858)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$136.15

Value

$139.94

PnL

+$3.79

Record

57%

6707-4966 (11673)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$114.97

Value

$235.24

PnL

+$120.27

Record

58%

37847-27088 (64935)

ImgonnadoitCTR

Invested

$250

Value

—

PnL

-$250

Record

37%

169-284 (453)

G-Penis-Monster

Down

Invested

$88.61

Value

$150.18

PnL

+$61.57

Record

62%

43835-26840 (70675)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$69.03

Value

$72.17

PnL

+$3.14

Record

63%

51921-30603 (82524)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$51.33

Value

$51.29

PnL

-$0.04

Record

61%

94915-59834 (154749)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Invested

$38.4

Value

—

PnL

-$38.4

Record

57%

12656-9358 (22014)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$58.52

Value

$38.14

PnL

-$2.7

Record

64%

23206-12791 (35997)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$24.51

Value

$24.21

PnL

-$0.3

Record

66%

125811-64748 (190559)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$18.35

Value

$27.32

PnL

+$8.97

Record

52%

90329-84819 (175148)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$12.73

Value

$21.66

PnL

+$8.93

Record

66%

112173-58591 (170764)

Little-big<$100

Down

Invested

$11.14

Value

$21.42

PnL

+$10.28

Record

34%

18806-35806 (54612)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

Value

—

PnL

+$39.42

Record

51%

20077-19224 (39301)

Smart Money Signal

Down

24 of 29 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xe1f209fc...fb6bcb

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1793367000

Traders in this Market

uninformedfloww

Down — $4.2K

+$258.51

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $2.9K

+$410.74

aswfadq1555

Down — $2.0K

-$44.21

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.5K

+$161.79

trdyugiolkw

Down — $1.1K

+$25.93

hoodquant

Down — $531.46

+$5.87

wzbbb

Down — $523.06

+$27.62

mo-money

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$9.03

MayorMamdani

Down — $485.47

+$22.5

thesidehustle

Down — $406.29

+$35.08

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