Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 28 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down14 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares8,527

Combined PnL-$942.75

Up14 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares563

Combined PnL-$308.15

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 74.7¢	$5.0K	$4.3K	-$695.8	68% 99525-47913 (147438)
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100	Downavg 54.6¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$15.67	54% 15343-13227 (28570)
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.1¢	$537.29	—	-$537.29
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.6¢	$627.4	$1.1K	+$521.62
TR trdyugiolkw	Downavg 68.2¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$117.89	57% 10339-7761 (18100)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 65.9¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$88.94	56% 14444-11357 (25801)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Downavg 59.1¢	$812.31	$804.77	-$7.55	57% 70901-53981 (124882)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.1¢	$475.86	$804.77	+$328.91
└ Up leg	Upavg 21.5¢	$336.45	—	-$336.45
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 71.6¢	$603.14	$478.95	-$124.19	57% 7881-6054 (13935)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$393.3	$397.27	+$3.97	93% 23467-1770 (25237)
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 63.1¢	$380.78	$376.03	-$4.75	54% 10895-9292 (20187)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 62.9¢	$206.23	$193.69	-$12.54	57% 6707-4966 (11673)
DE devonpoll	Downavg 94¢	$227.24	$180	-$5.93	51% 20077-19224 (39301)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 62.7¢	$64.29	$96.3	+$32	55% 17781-14392 (32173)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Upavg 30¢	$36	—	-$36	57% 12656-9358 (22014)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$49.51	—	-$49.51	58% 51002-37148 (88150)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 61.9¢	$60.84	—	-$60.84	66% 125811-64748 (190559)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 77¢	$68.66	—	-$68.66	55% 44917-37366 (82283)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 54.3¢	$43.02	—	-$43.02	61% 94915-59834 (154749)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 68.3¢	$87.43	$40	+$14.6	64% 23206-12791 (35997)
GO GoodRecipientCTR<$100	Upavg 31.4¢	$15.7	—	-$15.7	43% 611-794 (1405)
38 38791873984189<$100	Downavg 49¢	$34.41	$70.25	+$35.84	46% 7940-9367 (17307)
RL RLWG<$100	Downavg 61¢	$21.25	$29.99	+$8.75	50% 7843-7864 (15707)
AtomforgeCTR<$100	Upavg 29¢	$6.12	—	-$6.12	65% 4059-2199 (6258)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 84¢	$12.18	$14.5	+$2.32	63% 51921-30603 (82524)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 28.1¢	$10.05	—	-$10.05	52% 90329-84819 (175148)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 51¢	$10.2	$20	+$9.8	34% 18806-35806 (54612)
AS asabovesobelow2CTR<$100	Upavg 29¢	$3	—	-$3	69% 1633-735 (2368)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$5,029.47

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$695.8

Record

68%

99525-47913 (147438)

aswfadq1555ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,164.69

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$15.67

Record

54%

15343-13227 (28570)

Both legs:

Up$537.2938.1¢-$537.29

Down$627.454.6¢+$521.62

trdyugiolkw

Down

Invested

$1,321.51

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$117.89

Record

57%

10339-7761 (18100)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,182.01

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$88.94

Record

56%

14444-11357 (25801)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$812.31

Value

$804.77

PnL

-$7.55

Record

57%

70901-53981 (124882)

Both legs:

Down$475.8659.1¢+$328.91

Up$336.4521.5¢-$336.45

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$603.14

Value

$478.95

PnL

-$124.19

Record

57%

7881-6054 (13935)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$393.3

Value

$397.27

PnL

+$3.97

Record

93%

23467-1770 (25237)

thesidehustle

Down

Invested

$380.78

Value

$376.03

PnL

-$4.75

Record

54%

10895-9292 (20187)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$206.23

Value

$193.69

PnL

-$12.54

Record

57%

6707-4966 (11673)

devonpoll

Down

Invested

$227.24

Value

$180

PnL

-$5.93

Record

51%

20077-19224 (39301)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$64.29

Value

$96.3

PnL

+$32

Record

55%

17781-14392 (32173)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Invested

$36

Value

—

PnL

-$36

Record

57%

12656-9358 (22014)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$49.51

Value

—

PnL

-$49.51

Record

58%

51002-37148 (88150)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$60.84

Value

—

PnL

-$60.84

Record

66%

125811-64748 (190559)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$68.66

Value

—

PnL

-$68.66

Record

55%

44917-37366 (82283)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$43.02

Value

—

PnL

-$43.02

Record

61%

94915-59834 (154749)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$87.43

Value

$40

PnL

+$14.6

Record

64%

23206-12791 (35997)

GoodRecipientCTR<$100

Invested

$15.7

Value

—

PnL

-$15.7

Record

43%

611-794 (1405)

38791873984189<$100

Down

Invested

$34.41

Value

$70.25

PnL

+$35.84

Record

46%

7940-9367 (17307)

RLWG<$100

Down

Invested

$21.25

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$8.75

Record

50%

7843-7864 (15707)

AtomforgeCTR<$100

Invested

$6.12

Value

—

PnL

-$6.12

Record

65%

4059-2199 (6258)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$12.18

Value

$14.5

PnL

+$2.32

Record

63%

51921-30603 (82524)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$10.05

Value

—

PnL

-$10.05

Record

52%

90329-84819 (175148)

Little-big<$100

Down

Invested

$10.2

Value

$20

PnL

+$9.8

Record

34%

18806-35806 (54612)

asabovesobelow2CTR<$100

Invested

Value

—

PnL

-$3

Record

69%

1633-735 (2368)

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 28 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xfebd29f3...c643e9

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1793366100

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $4.3K

-$695.8

aswfadq1555

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$15.67

trdyugiolkw

Down — $1.2K

-$117.89

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.1K

-$88.94

uninformedfloww

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$7.55

wzbbb

Down — $478.95

-$124.19

hoodquant

Down — $397.27

+$3.97

thesidehustle

Down — $376.03

-$4.75

peepeepoopoo24

Down — $193.69

-$12.54

devonpoll

Down — $180

-$5.93

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