Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
Down 56%
1 arb excluded
$2.7K
$161.48
Smart Money Signal
9 of 16 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.8¢ | $720.01 | $728.86 | +$8.85 | 93% 23431-1770 (25201) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 62.9¢ | $370.65 | $503.7 | +$133.05 | 56% 14443-11356 (25799) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 68.9¢ | $492.3 | $527.35 | +$35.05 | 57% 7871-6039 (13910) |
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100 | Downavg 63.3¢ | $407.87 | $346.16 | -$61.71 | 57% 10324-7753 (18077) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63.3¢ | $219.01 | $346.16 | +$127.14 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 23.7¢ | $188.86 | — | -$188.86 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 40.2¢ | $288.95 | — | -$288.95 | 68% 99494-47875 (147369) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Downavg 56.3¢ | $127.65 | $226.89 | +$99.25 | 54% 15334-13221 (28555) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 56.9¢ | $115.1 | $202.46 | +$87.36 | 34% 18794-35795 (54589) |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Downavg 67.9¢ | $65.77 | $66.67 | +$67.57 | 57% 6700-4963 (11663) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 62.1¢ | $50.28 | $81 | +$30.72 | 54% 10891-9291 (20182) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $27.05 | — | -$27.05 | 55% 17763-14385 (32148) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 72.2¢ | $16.61 | $23.01 | +$6.4 | 66% 125752-64727 (190479) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 76.8¢ | $16.23 | $21.14 | +$4.91 | 61% 94870-59807 (154677) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 7¢ | $8.29 | — | +$19.59 | 51% 20069-19215 (39284) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 44¢ | $7.13 | — | -$7.13 | 64% 23134-12762 (35896) |
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100 | Upavg 41¢ | $6.43 | — | -$6.43 | 54% 14465-12299 (26764) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 8¢ | $1.3 | — | -$1.3 | 52% 90287-84781 (175068) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 28¢ | $0.39 | — | -$0.39 | 58% 37847-27088 (64935) |
Invested
$720.01
Value
$728.86
PnL
+$8.85
Record
93%
23431-1770 (25201)
Invested
$370.65
Value
$503.7
PnL
+$133.05
Record
56%
14443-11356 (25799)
Invested
$492.3
Value
$527.35
PnL
+$35.05
Record
57%
7871-6039 (13910)
Invested
$407.87
Value
$346.16
PnL
-$61.71
Record
57%
10324-7753 (18077)
Both legs:
Invested
$288.95
Value
—
PnL
-$288.95
Record
68%
99494-47875 (147369)
Invested
$127.65
Value
$226.89
PnL
+$99.25
Record
54%
15334-13221 (28555)
Invested
$115.1
Value
$202.46
PnL
+$87.36
Record
34%
18794-35795 (54589)
Invested
$65.77
Value
$66.67
PnL
+$67.57
Record
57%
6700-4963 (11663)
Invested
$50.28
Value
$81
PnL
+$30.72
Record
54%
10891-9291 (20182)
Invested
$27.05
Value
—
PnL
-$27.05
Record
55%
17763-14385 (32148)
Invested
$16.61
Value
$23.01
PnL
+$6.4
Record
66%
125752-64727 (190479)
Invested
$16.23
Value
$21.14
PnL
+$4.91
Record
61%
94870-59807 (154677)
Invested
$8.29
Value
—
PnL
+$19.59
Record
51%
20069-19215 (39284)
Invested
$7.13
Value
—
PnL
-$7.13
Record
64%
23134-12762 (35896)
Invested
$6.43
Value
—
PnL
-$6.43
Record
54%
14465-12299 (26764)
Invested
$1.3
Value
—
PnL
-$1.3
Record
52%
90287-84781 (175068)
Invested
$0.39
Value
—
PnL
-$0.39
Record
58%
37847-27088 (64935)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $728.86
CrouchPredictions
Down — $503.7
wzbbb
Down — $527.35
trdyugiolkw
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
aswfadq1555
Down — $226.89
Little-big
Down — $202.46
peepeepoopoo24
Down — $66.67
thesidehustle
Down — $81
Kathod-Shi-14
CTRUp — $0