Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 85% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
13
Down 85%
1 arb excluded
$1.8K
$223.19
Smart Money Signal
11 of 13 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 74.1¢ | $560.62 | $744.35 | +$183.73 | 68% 99494-47875 (147369) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Downavg 67.6¢ | $352.09 | $333.57 | -$18.52 | 57% 10324-7753 (18077) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 65¢ | $249.32 | $240.65 | -$8.67 | 56% 14443-11356 (25799) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Downavg 51.5¢ | $102.9 | $103.99 | +$1.09 | 57% 7871-6039 (13910) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 28.5¢ | $49.3 | — | -$49.3 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51.5¢ | $53.6 | $103.99 | +$50.39 | |
AS aswfadq1555 | Downavg 46.9¢ | $82.15 | $131.35 | +$49.19 | 54% 15334-13221 (28555) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 96.1¢ | $49.03 | $51 | +$1.97 | 55% 44884-37341 (82225) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 31¢ | $27.9 | — | -$27.9 | 51% 20069-19215 (39284) |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Downavg 73.2¢ | $46.2 | $36.94 | -$9.27 | 57% 6700-4963 (11663) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Downavg 45.5¢ | $33.75 | $74.24 | +$40.49 | 57% 12651-9354 (22005) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 64¢ | $25.6 | $40 | +$14.4 | 62% 43761-26770 (70531) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 98.8¢ | $11.88 | $12.03 | +$0.15 | 52% 90287-84781 (175068) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 56¢ | $8.56 | — | -$8.56 | 64% 23134-12762 (35896) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $4.52 | $10.04 | +$5.52 | 58% 50993-37138 (88131) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 87¢ | $4.35 | $5 | +$0.65 | 55% 17763-14385 (32148) |
Invested
$560.62
Value
$744.35
PnL
+$183.73
Record
68%
99494-47875 (147369)
Invested
$352.09
Value
$333.57
PnL
-$18.52
Record
57%
10324-7753 (18077)
Invested
$249.32
Value
$240.65
PnL
-$8.67
Record
56%
14443-11356 (25799)
Invested
$102.9
Value
$103.99
PnL
+$1.09
Record
57%
7871-6039 (13910)
Both legs:
Invested
$82.15
Value
$131.35
PnL
+$49.19
Record
54%
15334-13221 (28555)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$49.03
Value
$51
PnL
+$1.97
Record
55%
44884-37341 (82225)
Invested
$27.9
Value
—
PnL
-$27.9
Record
51%
20069-19215 (39284)
Invested
$46.2
Value
$36.94
PnL
-$9.27
Record
57%
6700-4963 (11663)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$33.75
Value
$74.24
PnL
+$40.49
Record
57%
12651-9354 (22005)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$25.6
Value
$40
PnL
+$14.4
Record
62%
43761-26770 (70531)
Invested
$11.88
Value
$12.03
PnL
+$0.15
Record
52%
90287-84781 (175068)
Invested
$8.56
Value
—
PnL
-$8.56
Record
64%
23134-12762 (35896)
Invested
$4.52
Value
$10.04
PnL
+$5.52
Record
58%
50993-37138 (88131)
Invested
$4.35
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.65
Record
55%
17763-14385 (32148)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $744.35
trdyugiolkw
Down — $333.57
CrouchPredictions
Down — $240.65
wzbbb
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aswfadq1555
Down — $131.35
MayorMamdani
Down — $51
devonpoll
CTRUp — $0
peepeepoopoo24
Down — $36.94
wowitsamazing
Down — $74.24
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $40