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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

21

Down 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$329.31

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 21 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down15 traders
Total Value$3.3K
Total Shares3,310
Combined PnL+$295.88
Up6 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares864
Combined PnL-$625.2
Down — 71%Up — 29%
HO
hoodquant
Down

Invested

$1,039.97

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$13.47

Record

93%

23362-1766 (25128)

AS
aswfadq1555CTR
Up

Invested

$589.33

Value

—

PnL

-$589.33

Record

54%

15320-13208 (28528)

TR
trdyugiolkw
Down

Invested

$537.26

Value

$535.37

PnL

-$1.89

Record

57%

10305-7738 (18043)

WZ
wzbbb
Down

Invested

$370.53

Value

$374.45

PnL

+$3.92

Record

57%

7832-6013 (13845)

TH
thesidehustle
Down

Invested

$380.71

Value

$392

PnL

+$11.29

Record

54%

10837-9261 (20098)

0X
0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819
Down

Invested

$342.57

Value

$392.16

PnL

+$49.59

Record

47%

434-491 (925)

LI
Little-big
Down

Invested

$129.3

Value

$256

PnL

+$126.7

Record

34%

18772-35775 (54547)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100
Down

Invested

$58

Value

$50

PnL

-$8

Record

65%

125105-66947 (192052)

Both legs:

Down$3978¢+$11
Up$1917¢-$19
AS
asidjasiodja<$100
Down

Invested

$48.41

Value

$47.57

PnL

-$0.84

Record

61%

94795-59739 (154534)

PE
peepeepoopoo24<$100
Down

Invested

$36.02

Value

$42.22

PnL

+$6.2

Record

57%

6686-4954 (11640)

wowitsamazing<$100
Down

Invested

$38.25

Value

$73.53

PnL

+$35.28

Record

58%

12640-9338 (21978)

MayorMamdani<$100
Down

Invested

$30.98

Value

$35

PnL

+$4.02

Record

55%

44823-37286 (82109)

AS
asdaefef<$100
Down

Invested

$24.33

Value

$28.8

PnL

+$4.47

Record

66%

125488-64588 (190076)

0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100
Down

Invested

$21.56

Value

$51.33

PnL

+$29.77

Record

56%

58006-44794 (102800)

0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$12.26

Value

—

PnL

-$12.26

Record

58%

60496-44176 (104672)

0D
0x0d2d...7ff5<$100
Down

Invested

$9.99

Value

$20.38

PnL

+$10.39

Record

46%

7894-9296 (17190)

PB
PBot-6CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$8.83

Value

—

PnL

-$8.83

Record

58%

50978-37126 (88104)

DE
devonpollCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$18.45

Value

—

PnL

-$11.25

Record

51%

20047-19201 (39248)

AA
aaa221CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$3.48

Value

—

PnL

-$3.48

Record

64%

23032-12691 (35723)

Atomforge<$100
Down

Invested

$2.65

Value

$5

PnL

+$2.35

Record

65%

4043-2184 (6227)

AS
asabovesobelow2<$100
Down

Invested

$1.25

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$1.15

Record

69%

1628-733 (2361)

AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

66%

112105-58496 (170601)

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Market Info

Condition ID
0xeb399765...75e7d7
Slug
btc-updown-15m-1793351700

Traders in this Market

HO

hoodquant

Down — $1.1K

+$13.47
AS

aswfadq1555

CTR

Up — $0

-$589.33
TR

trdyugiolkw

Down — $535.37

-$1.89
WZ

wzbbb

Down — $374.45

+$3.92
TH

thesidehustle

Down — $392

+$11.29
0X

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819

Down — $392.16

+$49.59
LI

Little-big

Down — $256

+$126.7
DR

drfc4eybh7i8

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$8
AS

asidjasiodja

Down — $47.57

-$0.84
PE

peepeepoopoo24

Down — $42.22

+$6.2
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