Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
Up 75%
1 arb excluded
$2.6K
-$210.2
Smart Money Signal
12 of 16 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$12.19 | 93% 23323-1765 (25088) |
TR trdyugiolkwCTR | Downavg 40.8¢ | $419.85 | — | -$419.85 | 57% 10302-7735 (18037) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 63.7¢ | $280.26 | $268.43 | -$11.83 | 57% 7817-5997 (13814) |
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5 | Upavg 48.5¢ | $249.32 | $402.01 | +$152.69 | 46% 7844-9262 (17106) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR | Downavg 53.6¢ | $254.39 | — | -$254.39 | 54% 15313-13203 (28516) |
DE devonpoll | Upavg 25.1¢ | $64.93 | $135.01 | +$205.03 | 51% 20036-19191 (39227) |
 ohioism | Upavg 41.8¢ | $90.03 | $169.31 | +$79.28 | 64% 40040-22899 (62939) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100 | Upavg 56¢ | $111.43 | $100.39 | -$11.04 | 58% 60485-44163 (104648) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55¢ | $55.21 | — | -$55.21 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56¢ | $56.22 | $100.39 | +$44.17 | |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Upavg 42.1¢ | $63.45 | $90 | +$26.55 | 57% 6681-4952 (11633) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 58.4¢ | $78.43 | $80 | +$1.57 | 64% 58239-32920 (91159) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Upavg 55.9¢ | $77.32 | $104.69 | +$27.37 | 56% 57982-44777 (102759) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $57.74 | — | -$57.74 | 65% 125073-66927 (192000) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Upavg 55.3¢ | $16.6 | $30 | +$13.4 | 50% 7825-7843 (15668) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 73.1¢ | $8.77 | $12 | +$3.23 | 61% 94766-59706 (154472) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $9.32 | $19.03 | +$9.71 | 58% 50970-37111 (88081) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 35¢ | $2.9 | — | -$2.9 | 52% 90179-84671 (174850) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $4.5 | $10 | +$5.5 | 55% 44800-37263 (82063) |
Invested
$1,206.81
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$12.19
Record
93%
23323-1765 (25088)
Invested
$419.85
Value
—
PnL
-$419.85
Record
57%
10302-7735 (18037)
Invested
$280.26
Value
$268.43
PnL
-$11.83
Record
57%
7817-5997 (13814)
Invested
$249.32
Value
$402.01
PnL
+$152.69
Record
46%
7844-9262 (17106)
Invested
$254.39
Value
—
PnL
-$254.39
Record
54%
15313-13203 (28516)
Invested
$64.93
Value
$135.01
PnL
+$205.03
Record
51%
20036-19191 (39227)
ohioismInvested
$90.03
Value
$169.31
PnL
+$79.28
Record
64%
40040-22899 (62939)
Invested
$111.43
Value
$100.39
PnL
-$11.04
Record
58%
60485-44163 (104648)
Both legs:
Invested
$63.45
Value
$90
PnL
+$26.55
Record
57%
6681-4952 (11633)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$78.43
Value
$80
PnL
+$1.57
Record
64%
58239-32920 (91159)
Invested
$77.32
Value
$104.69
PnL
+$27.37
Record
56%
57982-44777 (102759)
Invested
$57.74
Value
—
PnL
-$57.74
Record
65%
125073-66927 (192000)
Invested
$16.6
Value
$30
PnL
+$13.4
Record
50%
7825-7843 (15668)
Invested
$8.77
Value
$12
PnL
+$3.23
Record
61%
94766-59706 (154472)
Invested
$9.32
Value
$19.03
PnL
+$9.71
Record
58%
50970-37111 (88081)
Invested
$2.9
Value
—
PnL
-$2.9
Record
52%
90179-84671 (174850)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$4.5
Value
$10
PnL
+$5.5
Record
55%
44800-37263 (82063)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Up — $1.2K
trdyugiolkw
CTRDown — $0
wzbbb
Up — $268.43
0x0d2d...7ff5
Up — $402.01
aswfadq1555
CTRDown — $0
devonpoll
Up — $135.01
ohioism
Up — $169.31
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
ARBArbitrage — excluded
peepeepoopoo24
Up — $90
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $80