Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
18
Down 47%
3 arb excluded
$3.9K
-$14.39
Smart Money Signal
9 of 18 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$12.75 | 93% 23242-1759 (25001) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 48.8¢ | $821.86 | $909.33 | +$87.47 | 64% 58184-32863 (91047) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Upavg 47.7¢ | $749.08 | $711.07 | -$38.01 | 57% 7784-5961 (13745) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 46.5¢ | $330.68 | $711.07 | +$380.39 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47.7¢ | $418.4 | — | -$418.4 | |
TR trdyugiolkw | Downavg 65¢ | $560.6 | $592.01 | +$31.41 | 57% 10301-7732 (18033) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Downavg 63.2¢ | $199.04 | $230.81 | +$31.77 | 54% 15296-13193 (28489) |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Downavg 69.6¢ | $110.96 | $96.98 | -$13.98 | 57% 6672-4946 (11618) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 69.6¢ | $67.47 | $96.98 | +$29.51 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39.2¢ | $43.49 | — | -$43.49 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $84.48 | — | -$84.48 | 58% 37772-27004 (64776) |
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819 | Downavg 75¢ | $75 | $100 | +$25 | 47% 430-484 (914) |
 MayorMamdaniARB<$100 | Upavg 19.8¢ | $43.57 | $35.32 | -$8.25 | 55% 44748-37210 (81958) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 19.8¢ | $29.42 | — | -$29.42 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40.1¢ | $14.15 | $35.32 | +$21.17 | |
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100 | Upavg 27¢ | $53.46 | — | -$53.46 | 54% 14454-12293 (26747) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 46.6¢ | $25.51 | $33.74 | +$8.23 | 64% 22856-12613 (35469) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $27 | $50 | +$23 | 65% 124925-66828 (191753) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 30.9¢ | $32.62 | — | -$32.62 | 58% 60444-44134 (104578) |
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5CTR<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $19.57 | — | -$19.57 | — |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 33¢ | $32.05 | — | -$32.05 | 51% 20005-19176 (39181) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $8.61 | — | -$8.61 | 34% 18742-35744 (54486) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $6.32 | $8.43 | +$2.11 | 65% 4020-2176 (6196) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $2.7 | — | -$2.7 | 61% 94696-59644 (154340) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 5¢ | $1.2 | — | -$1.2 | 52% 90119-84595 (174714) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Upavg 29¢ | $1.45 | — | -$1.45 | 50% 7801-7821 (15622) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $0.39 | $0.4 | +$0.01 | 73% 95019-35650 (130669) |
Invested
$1,095.25
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$12.75
Record
93%
23242-1759 (25001)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$821.86
Value
$909.33
PnL
+$87.47
Record
64%
58184-32863 (91047)
Invested
$749.08
Value
$711.07
PnL
-$38.01
Record
57%
7784-5961 (13745)
Both legs:
Invested
$560.6
Value
$592.01
PnL
+$31.41
Record
57%
10301-7732 (18033)
Invested
$199.04
Value
$230.81
PnL
+$31.77
Record
54%
15296-13193 (28489)
Invested
$110.96
Value
$96.98
PnL
-$13.98
Record
57%
6672-4946 (11618)
Both legs:
Invested
$84.48
Value
—
PnL
-$84.48
Record
58%
37772-27004 (64776)
Invested
$75
Value
$100
PnL
+$25
Record
47%
430-484 (914)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100Invested
$43.57
Value
$35.32
PnL
-$8.25
Record
55%
44748-37210 (81958)
Both legs:
Invested
$53.46
Value
—
PnL
-$53.46
Record
54%
14454-12293 (26747)
Invested
$25.51
Value
$33.74
PnL
+$8.23
Record
64%
22856-12613 (35469)
Invested
$27
Value
$50
PnL
+$23
Record
65%
124925-66828 (191753)
Invested
$32.62
Value
—
PnL
-$32.62
Record
58%
60444-44134 (104578)
Invested
$19.57
Value
—
PnL
-$19.57
Record
—
Invested
$32.05
Value
—
PnL
-$32.05
Record
51%
20005-19176 (39181)
Invested
$8.61
Value
—
PnL
-$8.61
Record
34%
18742-35744 (54486)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$6.32
Value
$8.43
PnL
+$2.11
Record
65%
4020-2176 (6196)
Invested
$2.7
Value
—
PnL
-$2.7
Record
61%
94696-59644 (154340)
Invested
$1.2
Value
—
PnL
-$1.2
Record
52%
90119-84595 (174714)
Invested
$1.45
Value
—
PnL
-$1.45
Record
50%
7801-7821 (15622)
Invested
$0.39
Value
$0.4
PnL
+$0.01
Record
73%
95019-35650 (130669)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $1.1K
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $909.33
wzbbb
ARBArbitrage — excluded
trdyugiolkw
Down — $592.01
aswfadq1555
Down — $230.81
peepeepoopoo24
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819
Down — $100
MayorMamdani
ARBArbitrage — excluded
tmsd-test
CTRUp — $0