Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 47% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
17
Up 44%
1 arb excluded
$1.7K
-$74.46
Smart Money Signal
8 of 17 top traders (47%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AS aswfadq1555 | Upavg 60.6¢ | $336.43 | $523.98 | +$187.55 | 54% 15296-13193 (28489) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Upavg 77.8¢ | $349.86 | $360 | +$10.14 | 57% 10301-7732 (18033) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Downavg 45.7¢ | $333.85 | $278 | -$55.85 | 57% 7784-5961 (13745) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 40¢ | $111.3 | $278 | +$166.7 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.7¢ | $222.55 | — | -$222.55 | |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 96¢ | $500.83 | $343.58 | -$128.28 | 64% 58184-32863 (91047) |
TH thesidehustle | Upavg 89¢ | $116.82 | $120 | +$3.18 | 54% 10800-9239 (20039) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 82¢ | $45 | $50 | +$5 | 65% 124925-66828 (191753) |
 wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $40.5 | — | -$40.5 | 58% 12615-9290 (21905) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 55¢ | $34.74 | — | -$34.74 | 34% 18742-35744 (54486) |
GO GoodRecipientCTR<$100 | Downavg 44.2¢ | $29.7 | — | -$29.7 | 44% 610-791 (1401) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 93.3¢ | $24.26 | $26 | +$1.74 | 64% 22856-12613 (35469) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 82¢ | $20.57 | $25.08 | +$4.51 | 64% 40003-22867 (62870) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 23.2¢ | $34.27 | — | -$34.27 | 55% 44748-37210 (81958) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 33.7¢ | $5.3 | — | -$5.3 | 52% 90119-84595 (174714) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 6¢ | $3.88 | — | -$3.88 | 63% 51772-30494 (82266) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 49.1¢ | $5.61 | — | -$5.61 | 61% 94696-59644 (154340) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Downavg 38¢ | $3.8 | — | -$3.8 | 50% 7801-7821 (15622) |
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100 | Downavg 34¢ | $0.52 | — | -$0.52 | 54% 14454-12293 (26747) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 36¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20005-19176 (39181) |
Invested
$336.43
Value
$523.98
PnL
+$187.55
Record
54%
15296-13193 (28489)
Invested
$349.86
Value
$360
PnL
+$10.14
Record
57%
10301-7732 (18033)
Invested
$333.85
Value
$278
PnL
-$55.85
Record
57%
7784-5961 (13745)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$500.83
Value
$343.58
PnL
-$128.28
Record
64%
58184-32863 (91047)
Invested
$116.82
Value
$120
PnL
+$3.18
Record
54%
10800-9239 (20039)
Invested
$45
Value
$50
PnL
+$5
Record
65%
124925-66828 (191753)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$40.5
Value
—
PnL
-$40.5
Record
58%
12615-9290 (21905)
Invested
$34.74
Value
—
PnL
-$34.74
Record
34%
18742-35744 (54486)
Invested
$29.7
Value
—
PnL
-$29.7
Record
44%
610-791 (1401)
Invested
$24.26
Value
$26
PnL
+$1.74
Record
64%
22856-12613 (35469)
ohioism<$100Invested
$20.57
Value
$25.08
PnL
+$4.51
Record
64%
40003-22867 (62870)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$34.27
Value
—
PnL
-$34.27
Record
55%
44748-37210 (81958)
Invested
$5.3
Value
—
PnL
-$5.3
Record
52%
90119-84595 (174714)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$3.88
Value
—
PnL
-$3.88
Record
63%
51772-30494 (82266)
Invested
$5.61
Value
—
PnL
-$5.61
Record
61%
94696-59644 (154340)
Invested
$3.8
Value
—
PnL
-$3.8
Record
50%
7801-7821 (15622)
Invested
$0.52
Value
—
PnL
-$0.52
Record
54%
14454-12293 (26747)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20005-19176 (39181)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
aswfadq1555
Up — $523.98
trdyugiolkw
Up — $360
wzbbb
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $343.58
thesidehustle
Up — $120
drfc4eybh7i8
Up — $50
wowitsamazing
CTRDown — $0
Little-big
CTRDown — $0
GoodRecipient
CTRDown — $0
aaa221
Up — $26