Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
24
Down 65%
$3.6K
-$606.54
Smart Money Signal
15 of 24 top traders (63%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 71.2¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | 64% 58184-32863 (91047) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.6¢ | $1.1K | $893 | -$186.63 | 93% 23242-1759 (25001) |
AS asabovesobelow2 | Downavg 76.6¢ | $386 | $500.88 | +$114.88 | 69% 1625-733 (2358) |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 78.1¢ | $408.75 | $500 | +$91.25 | 77% 9373-2811 (12184) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR | Upavg 57.9¢ | $101.07 | — | -$101.07 | 55% 44748-37210 (81958) |
 Atomforge | Downavg 74.3¢ | $117.6 | $151.65 | +$34.05 | 65% 4020-2176 (6196) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 30.4¢ | $246.75 | $498.11 | +$251.36 | 57% 7784-5961 (13745) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 52.3¢ | $59.85 | — | -$59.85 | 64% 40003-22867 (62870) |
 wowitsamazing | Downavg 56.2¢ | $338.01 | $405.46 | +$136.09 | 58% 12615-9290 (21905) |
HS Hsilverbasher | Downavg 9¢ | $13.14 | $146 | +$132.86 | 12% 18281-132979 (151260) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 44.6¢ | $36.14 | — | -$36.15 | 66% 112049-58418 (170467) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $55.07 | $57.97 | +$2.89 | 65% 124925-66828 (191753) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 88.5¢ | $53.9 | — | -$53.9 | 61% 94696-59644 (154340) |
TM tmsd-test | Downavg 69.1¢ | $94.49 | $124.37 | +$29.88 | 54% 14454-12293 (26747) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 89.6¢ | $33.63 | — | -$33.63 | 52% 90119-84595 (174714) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 55¢ | $29.21 | $49 | +$19.79 | 58% 37772-27004 (64776) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 96¢ | $25.36 | — | -$25.36 | 58% 60444-44134 (104578) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 10.5¢ | $4.42 | $42.17 | +$37.75 | 63% 51772-30494 (82266) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 23.8¢ | $27.74 | $34.59 | +$21.96 | 64% 22856-12613 (35469) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Upavg 52.3¢ | $12.2 | — | -$12.2 | 34% 18742-35744 (54486) |
RL RLWG | Downavg 46.7¢ | $53.75 | $115 | +$61.25 | 50% 7801-7821 (15622) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 12.8¢ | $8.89 | $69.39 | +$60.5 | 56% 57941-44749 (102690) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 50.9¢ | $5.48 | $10.76 | +$5.28 | 74% 102424-36381 (138805) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20005-19176 (39181) |
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$1,115.35
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
64%
58184-32863 (91047)
Invested
$1,079.63
Value
$893
PnL
-$186.63
Record
93%
23242-1759 (25001)
Invested
$386
Value
$500.88
PnL
+$114.88
Record
69%
1625-733 (2358)
NIULAI4Invested
$408.75
Value
$500
PnL
+$91.25
Record
77%
9373-2811 (12184)
MayorMamdaniCTRInvested
$101.07
Value
—
PnL
-$101.07
Record
55%
44748-37210 (81958)
AtomforgeInvested
$117.6
Value
$151.65
PnL
+$34.05
Record
65%
4020-2176 (6196)
Invested
$246.75
Value
$498.11
PnL
+$251.36
Record
57%
7784-5961 (13745)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$59.85
Value
—
PnL
-$59.85
Record
64%
40003-22867 (62870)
wowitsamazingInvested
$338.01
Value
$405.46
PnL
+$136.09
Record
58%
12615-9290 (21905)
Invested
$13.14
Value
$146
PnL
+$132.86
Record
12%
18281-132979 (151260)
Invested
$36.14
Value
—
PnL
-$36.15
Record
66%
112049-58418 (170467)
Invested
$55.07
Value
$57.97
PnL
+$2.89
Record
65%
124925-66828 (191753)
Invested
$53.9
Value
—
PnL
-$53.9
Record
61%
94696-59644 (154340)
Invested
$94.49
Value
$124.37
PnL
+$29.88
Record
54%
14454-12293 (26747)
Invested
$33.63
Value
—
PnL
-$33.63
Record
52%
90119-84595 (174714)
Invested
$29.21
Value
$49
PnL
+$19.79
Record
58%
37772-27004 (64776)
Invested
$25.36
Value
—
PnL
-$25.36
Record
58%
60444-44134 (104578)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$4.42
Value
$42.17
PnL
+$37.75
Record
63%
51772-30494 (82266)
Invested
$27.74
Value
$34.59
PnL
+$21.96
Record
64%
22856-12613 (35469)
Invested
$12.2
Value
—
PnL
-$12.2
Record
34%
18742-35744 (54486)
Invested
$53.75
Value
$115
PnL
+$61.25
Record
50%
7801-7821 (15622)
Invested
$8.89
Value
$69.39
PnL
+$60.5
Record
56%
57941-44749 (102690)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$5.48
Value
$10.76
PnL
+$5.28
Record
74%
102424-36381 (138805)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20005-19176 (39181)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $893
asabovesobelow2
Down — $500.88
NIULAI4
Down — $500
MayorMamdani
CTRUp — $0
Atomforge
Down — $151.65
wzbbb
Down — $498.11
ohioism
CTRUp — $0
wowitsamazing
Down — $405.46
Hsilverbasher
Down — $146