Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
11
Down 70%
2 arb excluded
$3.1K
$107.74
Smart Money Signal
8 of 11 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$16.51 | 93% 23201-1758 (24959) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Downavg 80.6¢ | $428.89 | $528.85 | +$99.96 | 54% 15292-13183 (28475) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 94.5¢ | $1.1K | $548.82 | -$12.55 | 64% 58160-32830 (90990) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 94.5¢ | $518.38 | $548.82 | +$55.7 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 25¢ | $68.25 | — | -$68.25 | |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Downavg 88.7¢ | $92.32 | $98.57 | +$6.25 | 57% 6667-4941 (11608) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 88.7¢ | $87.42 | $98.57 | +$11.15 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 8.2¢ | $4.9 | — | -$4.9 | |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 98.2¢ | $114.68 | $110 | -$4.68 | 55% 44709-37178 (81887) |
 UpandDownSyndrome | Downavg 97.3¢ | $97.6 | $100.31 | +$2.71 | 63% 51732-30464 (82196) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 29.1¢ | $26.63 | — | -$26.63 | 51% 19993-19160 (39153) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Downavg 54.1¢ | $39.75 | $73.51 | +$33.76 | 58% 12603-9272 (21875) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Upavg 33.3¢ | $15.2 | — | -$15.2 | 57% 7773-5955 (13728) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 83.3¢ | $17.04 | $18.17 | +$1.13 | 61% 94646-59611 (154257) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 86.4¢ | $9.6 | $11.11 | +$1.51 | 52% 90065-84555 (174620) |
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100 | Upavg 31¢ | $3.1 | — | -$3.1 | 12% 18272-132972 (151244) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 77¢ | $10.46 | — | +$1.77 | 64% 22780-12562 (35342) |
Invested
$1,618.48
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$16.51
Record
93%
23201-1758 (24959)
Invested
$428.89
Value
$528.85
PnL
+$99.96
Record
54%
15292-13183 (28475)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$1,060.75
Value
$548.82
PnL
-$12.55
Record
64%
58160-32830 (90990)
Both legs:
Invested
$92.32
Value
$98.57
PnL
+$6.25
Record
57%
6667-4941 (11608)
Both legs:
MayorMamdaniInvested
$114.68
Value
$110
PnL
-$4.68
Record
55%
44709-37178 (81887)
UpandDownSyndromeInvested
$97.6
Value
$100.31
PnL
+$2.71
Record
63%
51732-30464 (82196)
Invested
$26.63
Value
—
PnL
-$26.63
Record
51%
19993-19160 (39153)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$39.75
Value
$73.51
PnL
+$33.76
Record
58%
12603-9272 (21875)
Invested
$15.2
Value
—
PnL
-$15.2
Record
57%
7773-5955 (13728)
Invested
$17.04
Value
$18.17
PnL
+$1.13
Record
61%
94646-59611 (154257)
Invested
$9.6
Value
$11.11
PnL
+$1.51
Record
52%
90065-84555 (174620)
Invested
$3.1
Value
—
PnL
-$3.1
Record
12%
18272-132972 (151244)
Invested
$10.46
Value
—
PnL
+$1.77
Record
64%
22780-12562 (35342)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $1.6K
aswfadq1555
Down — $528.85
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
peepeepoopoo24
ARBArbitrage — excluded
MayorMamdani
Down — $110
UpandDownSyndrome
Down — $100.31
devonpoll
CTRUp — $0
wowitsamazing
Down — $73.51
wzbbb
CTRUp — $0
asidjasiodja
Down — $18.17