Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
12
Down 45%
2 arb excluded
$2.3K
$665.75
Smart Money Signal
6 of 12 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Downavg 77.7¢ | $1.6K | $1.2K | -$471.66 | 54% 15276-13171 (28447) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.5¢ | $731.83 | — | -$731.83 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 77.7¢ | $908.99 | $1.2K | +$260.17 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $662.31 | $669 | +$6.69 | 93% 23128-1756 (24884) |
BO BonereaperARB<$100 | Downavg 68.9¢ | $167.58 | $135 | -$32.58 | 66% 99051-51306 (150357) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 15.3¢ | $74.63 | — | -$74.63 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 68.9¢ | $92.95 | $135 | +$42.05 | |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Downavg 68¢ | $113.64 | $120.18 | +$6.54 | 57% 6654-4933 (11587) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 88.9¢ | $125.3 | $99.99 | -$25.31 | 64% 58097-32792 (90889) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 61¢ | $44.19 | — | -$44.19 | 58% 60375-44067 (104442) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 48.3¢ | $28.29 | $56.48 | +$28.19 | 58% 37705-26921 (64626) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $24.32 | — | -$24.32 | 58% 50929-37060 (87989) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 21.6¢ | $11.58 | — | -$11.58 | 55% 44647-37116 (81763) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $14.8 | $13.09 | -$1.71 | 61% 94573-59553 (154126) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 35.7¢ | $17.78 | — | -$17.07 | 64% 22669-12483 (35152) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 22.3¢ | $4.6 | — | -$4.6 | 52% 89996-84488 (174484) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 9.5¢ | $35.22 | — | +$55.58 | 51% 19969-19125 (39094) |
IM Imgonnadoit | Downavg 45.2¢ | $778.98 | $0 | +$697.53 | 36% 131-234 (365) |
Invested
$1,640.82
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$471.66
Record
54%
15276-13171 (28447)
Both legs:
Invested
$662.31
Value
$669
PnL
+$6.69
Record
93%
23128-1756 (24884)
Invested
$167.58
Value
$135
PnL
-$32.58
Record
66%
99051-51306 (150357)
Both legs:
Invested
$113.64
Value
$120.18
PnL
+$6.54
Record
57%
6654-4933 (11587)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$125.3
Value
$99.99
PnL
-$25.31
Record
64%
58097-32792 (90889)
Invested
$44.19
Value
—
PnL
-$44.19
Record
58%
60375-44067 (104442)
Invested
$28.29
Value
$56.48
PnL
+$28.19
Record
58%
37705-26921 (64626)
Invested
$24.32
Value
—
PnL
-$24.32
Record
58%
50929-37060 (87989)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$11.58
Value
—
PnL
-$11.58
Record
55%
44647-37116 (81763)
Invested
$14.8
Value
$13.09
PnL
-$1.71
Record
61%
94573-59553 (154126)
Invested
$17.78
Value
—
PnL
-$17.07
Record
64%
22669-12483 (35152)
Invested
$4.6
Value
—
PnL
-$4.6
Record
52%
89996-84488 (174484)
Invested
$35.22
Value
—
PnL
+$55.58
Record
51%
19969-19125 (39094)
Invested
$778.98
Value
$0
PnL
+$697.53
Record
36%
131-234 (365)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $669
Bonereaper
ARBArbitrage — excluded
peepeepoopoo24
Down — $120.18
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $99.99
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRUp — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $56.48
PBot-6
CTRUp — $0
MayorMamdani
CTRUp — $0
asidjasiodja
Down — $13.09