Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
Down 50%
5 arb excluded
$2.5K
$589.57
Smart Money Signal
8 of 16 top traders (50%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Downavg 71.3¢ | $1.3K | $923.57 | -$382.53 | 54% 15275-13168 (28443) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52.8¢ | $647.65 | — | -$647.65 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 71.3¢ | $658.45 | $923.57 | +$265.12 | |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 44.4¢ | $289.07 | $339.73 | +$50.66 | 64% 57982-32684 (90666) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 40.6¢ | $138.15 | — | -$138.15 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44.4¢ | $150.92 | $339.73 | +$188.81 | |
BO BonereaperARB<$100 | Upavg 32.7¢ | $247.32 | $204 | -$43.32 | 66% 98941-51224 (150165) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32.7¢ | $142.33 | — | -$142.33 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51.5¢ | $104.99 | $204 | +$99.01 | |
TH thesidehustleARB<$100 | Downavg 64.9¢ | $270.1 | $233.58 | -$36.52 | 54% 10751-9194 (19945) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 36.9¢ | $118.58 | — | -$118.58 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 64.9¢ | $151.52 | $233.58 | +$82.06 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $407.3 | $411.41 | +$4.11 | 93% 23125-1755 (24880) |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Downavg 62.1¢ | $151.77 | $153 | +$1.23 | 57% 6653-4932 (11585) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 62.1¢ | $94.94 | $153 | +$58.06 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39.9¢ | $56.83 | — | -$56.83 | |
IM ImgonnadoitCTR | Upavg 35.3¢ | $1.4K | — | +$578.07 | 36% 129-231 (360) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 43.9¢ | $41.39 | $72.36 | +$30.97 | 58% 50929-37060 (87989) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Downavg 44.6¢ | $35.8 | $80.34 | +$44.54 | 34% 18700-35695 (54395) |
HS Hsilverbasher<$100 | Downavg 51.8¢ | $25.41 | $49.07 | +$23.66 | 12% 18256-132960 (151216) |
 wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Upavg 55.8¢ | $39.75 | — | -$39.75 | 58% 12577-9241 (21818) |
GO GoodRecipient<$100 | Downavg 51.1¢ | $20.15 | $39.42 | +$19.28 | 43% 603-787 (1390) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 49.7¢ | $32.55 | — | -$29.55 | 64% 22658-12474 (35132) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR<$100 | Upavg 27.3¢ | $15 | — | -$15 | 73% 95016-35646 (130662) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 31¢ | $41.85 | — | -$19.09 | 51% 19968-19120 (39088) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 29¢ | $9.31 | — | -$9.31 | 52% 89994-84473 (174467) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 42¢ | $5.09 | $9.85 | +$4.76 | 58% 37704-26918 (64622) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 29¢ | $4.53 | — | -$4.53 | 66% 111986-58335 (170321) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 55¢ | $2.75 | $5 | +$2.25 | 64% 39931-22816 (62747) |
 NIULAI4<$100 | Downavg 68¢ | $3.4 | $5 | +$1.6 | 77% 9355-2798 (12153) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 24.5¢ | $2.45 | — | -$2.45 | 61% 94572-59547 (154119) |
Invested
$1,306.11
Value
$923.57
PnL
-$382.53
Record
54%
15275-13168 (28443)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$289.07
Value
$339.73
PnL
+$50.66
Record
64%
57982-32684 (90666)
Both legs:
Invested
$247.32
Value
$204
PnL
-$43.32
Record
66%
98941-51224 (150165)
Both legs:
Invested
$270.1
Value
$233.58
PnL
-$36.52
Record
54%
10751-9194 (19945)
Both legs:
Invested
$407.3
Value
$411.41
PnL
+$4.11
Record
93%
23125-1755 (24880)
Invested
$151.77
Value
$153
PnL
+$1.23
Record
57%
6653-4932 (11585)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,430.96
Value
—
PnL
+$578.07
Record
36%
129-231 (360)
Invested
$41.39
Value
$72.36
PnL
+$30.97
Record
58%
50929-37060 (87989)
Invested
$35.8
Value
$80.34
PnL
+$44.54
Record
34%
18700-35695 (54395)
Invested
$25.41
Value
$49.07
PnL
+$23.66
Record
12%
18256-132960 (151216)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$39.75
Value
—
PnL
-$39.75
Record
58%
12577-9241 (21818)
Invested
$20.15
Value
$39.42
PnL
+$19.28
Record
43%
603-787 (1390)
Invested
$32.55
Value
—
PnL
-$29.55
Record
64%
22658-12474 (35132)
Invested
$15
Value
—
PnL
-$15
Record
73%
95016-35646 (130662)
Invested
$41.85
Value
—
PnL
-$19.09
Record
51%
19968-19120 (39088)
Invested
$9.31
Value
—
PnL
-$9.31
Record
52%
89994-84473 (174467)
Invested
$5.09
Value
$9.85
PnL
+$4.76
Record
58%
37704-26918 (64622)
Invested
$4.53
Value
—
PnL
-$4.53
Record
66%
111986-58335 (170321)
ohioism<$100Invested
$2.75
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.25
Record
64%
39931-22816 (62747)
NIULAI4<$100Invested
$3.4
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.6
Record
77%
9355-2798 (12153)
Invested
$2.45
Value
—
PnL
-$2.45
Record
61%
94572-59547 (154119)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Bonereaper
ARBArbitrage — excluded
thesidehustle
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $411.41
peepeepoopoo24
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Imgonnadoit
CTRUp — $0
PBot-6
Down — $72.36
Little-big
Down — $80.34
Hsilverbasher
Down — $49.07