Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 83%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$2.1K

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 20 top traders (80%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down16 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares3,952

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares429

Combined PnL-$158.1

Down — 80%Up — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 88.5¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$117.95	66% 98940-51224 (150164)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$914.76	$924	+$9.24	93% 23082-1754 (24836)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 61.3¢	$504.88	$466.88	-$38	64% 57982-32684 (90666)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.3¢	$286.22	$466.88	+$180.66
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.7¢	$218.66	—	-$218.66
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100	Upavg 65.4¢	$458.37	$325.47	-$132.9	54% 15244-13141 (28385)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.4¢	$301.57	—	-$301.57
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.2¢	$156.8	$325.47	+$168.67
RL RLWG	Downavg 38.5¢	$198.49	$514.98	+$316.49	50% 7769-7782 (15551)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 57.2¢	$275.01	$247.56	-$27.45	57% 6646-4928 (11574)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.2¢	$141.68	$247.56	+$105.88
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.5¢	$133.33	—	-$133.33
YO YouSayUpISayDownCTR	Upavg 35.5¢	$131.96	—	-$131.96	53% 3692-3210 (6902)
LI Little-big	Downavg 54.4¢	$120.32	$221	+$100.68	34% 18690-35687 (54377)
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144ARB<$100	Downavg 65.6¢	$76.65	$90	+$13.35	73% 95016-35645 (130661)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.6¢	$59	$90	+$31
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.5¢	$17.65	—	-$17.65
wowitsamazingARB<$100	Downavg 55.1¢	$64.05	$81.46	+$17.41	58% 12570-9233 (21803)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.1¢	$44.85	$81.46	+$36.61
└ Up leg	Upavg 32¢	$19.2	—	-$19.2
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819<$100	Downavg 33¢	$33	$100	+$67	47% 417-475 (892)
AS asabovesobelow2<$100	Downavg 81.7¢	$63.75	$78.06	+$14.31	69% 1618-731 (2349)
NIULAI4<$100	Downavg 74.2¢	$54.94	$74	+$19.06	77% 9350-2795 (12145)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 63.1¢	$47.01	$55.82	+$8.81	61% 94531-59515 (154046)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 57.3¢	$41.61	$55.64	+$24.16	64% 22587-12434 (35021)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 63.1¢	$27.65	$35.88	+$8.23	66% 111959-58297 (170256)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 63¢	$21.52	$32.34	+$10.82	52% 89954-84437 (174391)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 72.1¢	$24.5	$34	+$9.5	65% 3999-2162 (6161)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 43.7¢	$13.77	—	-$13.77	62% 43705-26697 (70402)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 48.5¢	$12.37	—	-$12.37	58% 60356-44051 (104407)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 62.4¢	$9.73	$15.6	+$5.87	63% 51644-30399 (82043)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 47.9¢	$5.42	$11.32	+$5.9	55% 44610-37084 (81694)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 52¢	$2.4	$4.61	+$2.21	56% 57825-44673 (102498)
IM Imgonnadoit	Downavg 28.3¢	$600	$0.01	+$1.5K	35% 118-220 (338)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 36.1¢	—	—	+$0	51% 19963-19114 (39077)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,677.25

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$117.95

Record

66%

98940-51224 (150164)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$914.76

Value

$924

PnL

+$9.24

Record

93%

23082-1754 (24836)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$504.88

Value

$466.88

PnL

-$38

Record

64%

57982-32684 (90666)

Both legs:

Down$286.2261.3¢+$180.66

Up$218.6646.7¢-$218.66

aswfadq1555ARB<$100

Invested

$458.37

Value

$325.47

PnL

-$132.9

Record

54%

15244-13141 (28385)

Both legs:

Up$301.5765.4¢-$301.57

Down$156.848.2¢+$168.67

RLWG

Down

Invested

$198.49

Value

$514.98

PnL

+$316.49

Record

50%

7769-7782 (15551)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$275.01

Value

$247.56

PnL

-$27.45

Record

57%

6646-4928 (11574)

Both legs:

Down$141.6857.2¢+$105.88

Up$133.3353.5¢-$133.33

YouSayUpISayDownCTR

Invested

$131.96

Value

—

PnL

-$131.96

Record

53%

3692-3210 (6902)

Little-big

Down

Invested

$120.32

Value

$221

PnL

+$100.68

Record

34%

18690-35687 (54377)

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$76.65

Value

$90

PnL

+$13.35

Record

73%

95016-35645 (130661)

Both legs:

Down$5965.6¢+$31

Up$17.6523.5¢-$17.65

wowitsamazingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$64.05

Value

$81.46

PnL

+$17.41

Record

58%

12570-9233 (21803)

Both legs:

Down$44.8555.1¢+$36.61

Up$19.232¢-$19.2

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819<$100

Down

Invested

$33

Value

$100

PnL

+$67

Record

47%

417-475 (892)

asabovesobelow2<$100

Down

Invested

$63.75

Value

$78.06

PnL

+$14.31

Record

69%

1618-731 (2349)

NIULAI4<$100

Down

Invested

$54.94

Value

$74

PnL

+$19.06

Record

77%

9350-2795 (12145)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$47.01

Value

$55.82

PnL

+$8.81

Record

61%

94531-59515 (154046)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$41.61

Value

$55.64

PnL

+$24.16

Record

64%

22587-12434 (35021)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$27.65

Value

$35.88

PnL

+$8.23

Record

66%

111959-58297 (170256)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$21.52

Value

$32.34

PnL

+$10.82

Record

52%

89954-84437 (174391)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$24.5

Value

$34

PnL

+$9.5

Record

65%

3999-2162 (6161)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$13.77

Value

—

PnL

-$13.77

Record

62%

43705-26697 (70402)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$12.37

Value

—

PnL

-$12.37

Record

58%

60356-44051 (104407)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$9.73

Value

$15.6

PnL

+$5.87

Record

63%

51644-30399 (82043)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$5.42

Value

$11.32

PnL

+$5.9

Record

55%

44610-37084 (81694)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$2.4

Value

$4.61

PnL

+$2.21

Record

56%

57825-44673 (102498)

Imgonnadoit

Down

Invested

$600

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

35%

118-220 (338)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

19963-19114 (39077)

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 20 top traders (80%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x3fb81c6c...1cddc6

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1793303100

Traders in this Market

Bonereaper

Down — $1.8K

+$117.95

hoodquant

Down — $924

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

aswfadq1555

Arbitrage — excluded

RLWG

Down — $514.98

peepeepoopoo24

Arbitrage — excluded

YouSayUpISayDown

Up — $0

Little-big

Down — $221

+$100.68

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144

Arbitrage — excluded

wowitsamazing

Arbitrage — excluded