Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 64%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

-$552.39

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 14 top traders (64%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares3,867

Combined PnL+$105.54

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,097

Combined PnL-$657.92

Down — 64%Up — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$31.91	93% 22987-1751 (24738)
TM tmsd-testCTR	Upavg 17.5¢	$298.7	—	-$298.7	54% 14442-12267 (26709)
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Downavg 79.9¢	$558.13	$542.92	-$15.21	57% 10267-7696 (17963)
└ Up leg	Upavg 14.9¢	$124.38	—	-$124.38
└ Down leg	Downavg 79.9¢	$433.75	$542.92	+$109.17
MO mo-moneyCTR	Upavg 28.2¢	$183.45	—	-$183.45	55% 50262-40840 (91102)
AL almachCTR	Upavg 27.2¢	$173.92	—	-$173.92	55% 48224-39763 (87987)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 87.7¢	$437.87	$471	+$33.13	55% 44511-37010 (81521)
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Downavg 82.3¢	$218.77	$240.89	+$22.11	54% 10700-9147 (19847)
└ Down leg	Downavg 82.3¢	$198.15	$240.89	+$42.73
└ Up leg	Upavg 17.1¢	$20.62	—	-$20.62
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Downavg 84.2¢	$76.6	$69.31	-$7.29	66% 125199-64428 (189627)
└ Down leg	Downavg 84.2¢	$58.38	$69.31	+$10.93
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.8¢	$18.22	—	-$18.22
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 76.3¢	$65.01	$70.3	+$5.29	57% 6631-4917 (11548)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.3¢	$53.63	$70.3	+$16.68
└ Up leg	Upavg 17.8¢	$11.39	—	-$11.39
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Downavg 67.7¢	$44.05	$45	+$0.95	57% 70359-53462 (123821)
└ Up leg	Upavg 17¢	$13.6	—	-$13.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.7¢	$30.45	$45	+$14.55
AS asidjasiodjaARB<$100	Downavg 88.2¢	$57.87	$59.1	+$1.23	61% 94436-59427 (153863)
└ Up leg	Upavg 9.6¢	$5.76	—	-$5.76
└ Down leg	Downavg 88.2¢	$52.11	$59.1	+$6.99
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 2¢	$1.8	—	-$1.8	51% 19925-19088 (39013)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Downavg 57.8¢	$42.35	$50	+$7.65	12% 18220-132943 (151163)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 90.2¢	$33.24	$35.4	+$2.16	52% 89866-84321 (174187)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 59¢	$29.42	$49.86	+$20.44	56% 57788-44629 (102417)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 99¢	$31.83	$32.15	+$0.32	63% 51591-30353 (81944)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 76.4¢	$21.28	$27.85	+$6.57	65% 22438-12338 (34776)
RL RLWG<$100	Downavg 72.5¢	$7.25	$10	+$2.75	50% 7748-7766 (15514)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.06	—	-$0.06	66% 111894-58227 (170121)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 88¢	$4.4	$5	+$0.6	55% 17660-14270 (31930)