Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

Resolved Up. 91% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 91%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$434.34

Smart Money Signal

20 of 22 top traders (91%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up20 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares4,664

Combined PnL+$455.27

Down2 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares65

Combined PnL-$20.93

Up — 91%Down — 9%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.6¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$38.11	93% 22962-1751 (24713)
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Upavg 56.5¢	$611.72	$680.77	+$69.05	57% 10261-7686 (17947)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.5¢	$384.5	$680.77	+$296.26
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.6¢	$227.22	—	-$227.22
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 64.7¢	$489.04	$710.39	+$221.35	57% 70341-53444 (123785)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Upavg 64.5¢	$180.33	$179.52	-$0.81	57% 6629-4911 (11540)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.5¢	$115.76	$179.52	+$63.76
└ Down leg	Downavg 45¢	$64.56	—	-$64.56
ohioismARB<$100	Upavg 98.9¢	$208.18	$150.18	-$58	64% 39879-22782 (62661)
└ Up leg	Upavg 98.9¢	$148.55	$150.18	+$1.63
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.6¢	$59.62	—	-$59.62
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 54.8¢	$34.27	$31.28	-$2.99	52% 89831-84292 (174123)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 72.3¢	$139.33	$130	-$9.33	55% 44484-36982 (81466)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 94¢	$132.59	$141	+$8.41	58% 37571-26826 (64397)
NIULAI4	Upavg 78.7¢	$102.83	$122.99	+$20.16	77% 9336-2778 (12114)
AS asabovesobelow2<$100	Upavg 83.3¢	$77.25	$85.21	+$7.96	69% 1613-731 (2344)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 63¢	$74.21	$117.75	+$43.55	58% 60288-44012 (104300)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 55.5¢	$50.32	$56.98	+$6.66	55% 17660-14270 (31930)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 63.6¢	$46.11	$62.43	+$16.32	66% 125156-64405 (189561)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 58.1¢	$40.18	$55.02	+$14.84	61% 94398-59400 (153798)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 57.2¢	$77.96	$91.3	+$34.94	51% 19919-19076 (38995)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 65.8¢	$45.32	$37.49	-$7.83	56% 57773-44618 (102391)
LI Little-big<$100	Upavg 60.5¢	$33.2	$54.91	+$21.71	34% 18655-35650 (54305)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 56.7¢	$29.44	$35.11	+$5.67	66% 111875-58207 (170082)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 80.5¢	$29.4	$30.45	+$1.05	65% 3983-2152 (6135)
RL RLWG<$100	Upavg 55.8¢	$14.52	$21.18	+$6.67	50% 7745-7761 (15506)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Downavg 37¢	$9.62	—	-$9.62	12% 18218-132938 (151156)
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100	Downavg 29¢	$11.31	—	-$11.31	54% 14435-12266 (26701)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 54.6¢	$11.41	$20.91	+$9.5	65% 22398-12314 (34712)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 51¢	$10.97	$21.51	+$10.54	62% 43666-26656 (70322)
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100	Upavg 46¢	$6.79	$14.76	+$7.97	73% 95012-35644 (130656)

hoodquant

Invested

$2,784.88

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$38.11

Record

93%

22962-1751 (24713)

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Invested

$611.72

Value

$680.77

PnL

+$69.05

Record

57%

10261-7686 (17947)

Both legs:

Up$384.556.5¢+$296.26

Down$227.2231.6¢-$227.22

uninformedfloww

Invested

$489.04

Value

$710.39

PnL

+$221.35

Record

57%

70341-53444 (123785)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Invested

$180.33

Value

$179.52

PnL

-$0.81

Record

57%

6629-4911 (11540)

Both legs:

Up$115.7664.5¢+$63.76

Down$64.5645¢-$64.56

ohioismARB<$100

Invested

$208.18

Value

$150.18

PnL

-$58

Record

64%

39879-22782 (62661)

Both legs:

Up$148.5598.9¢+$1.63

Down$59.6229.6¢-$59.62

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$34.27

Value

$31.28

PnL

-$2.99

Record

52%

89831-84292 (174123)

MayorMamdani

Invested

$139.33

Value

$130

PnL

-$9.33

Record

55%

44484-36982 (81466)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$132.59

Value

$141

PnL

+$8.41

Record

58%

37571-26826 (64397)

NIULAI4

Invested

$102.83

Value

$122.99

PnL

+$20.16

Record

77%

9336-2778 (12114)

asabovesobelow2<$100

Invested

$77.25

Value

$85.21

PnL

+$7.96

Record

69%

1613-731 (2344)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$74.21

Value

$117.75

PnL

+$43.55

Record

58%

60288-44012 (104300)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$50.32

Value

$56.98

PnL

+$6.66

Record

55%

17660-14270 (31930)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$46.11

Value

$62.43

PnL

+$16.32

Record

66%

125156-64405 (189561)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$40.18

Value

$55.02

PnL

+$14.84

Record

61%

94398-59400 (153798)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

$77.96

Value

$91.3

PnL

+$34.94

Record

51%

19919-19076 (38995)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$45.32

Value

$37.49

PnL

-$7.83

Record

56%

57773-44618 (102391)

Little-big<$100

Invested

$33.2

Value

$54.91

PnL

+$21.71

Record

34%

18655-35650 (54305)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$29.44

Value

$35.11

PnL

+$5.67

Record

66%

111875-58207 (170082)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$29.4

Value

$30.45

PnL

+$1.05

Record

65%

3983-2152 (6135)

RLWG<$100

Invested

$14.52

Value

$21.18

PnL

+$6.67

Record

50%

7745-7761 (15506)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.62

Value

—

PnL

-$9.62

Record

12%

18218-132938 (151156)

tmsd-testCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$11.31

Value

—

PnL

-$11.31

Record

54%

14435-12266 (26701)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$11.41

Value

$20.91

PnL

+$9.5

Record

65%

22398-12314 (34712)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$10.97

Value

$21.51

PnL

+$10.54

Record

62%

43666-26656 (70322)

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100

Invested

$6.79

Value

$14.76

PnL

+$7.97

Record

73%

95012-35644 (130656)

Smart Money Signal

20 of 22 top traders (91%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xcc9210cd...74bcd1

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1793277000

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Up — $2.8K

+$38.11

trdyugiolkw

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$69.05

uninformedfloww

Up — $710.39

peepeepoopoo24

Arbitrage — excluded

ohioism

Arbitrage — excluded

dvasdkasodk

Up — $31.28

-$2.99

MayorMamdani

Up — $130

-$9.33

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $141

+$8.41

NIULAI4

Up — $122.99

+$20.16

asabovesobelow2

Up — $85.21

+$7.96

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