Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET
Resolved Up. 90% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
21
Up 90%
1 arb excluded
$1.9K
$65.17
Smart Money Signal
19 of 21 top traders (90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TR trdyugiolkw | Upavg 48.6¢ | $503.33 | $620.02 | +$116.69 | 57% 10261-7686 (17947) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $161.26 | $162.89 | +$1.63 | 93% 22962-1751 (24713) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Upavg 71.8¢ | $201.6 | $150 | -$51.6 | 57% 6629-4911 (11540) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144 | Upavg 67.3¢ | $107.6 | $160 | +$52.4 | 73% 95012-35644 (130656) |
TM tmsd-test | Upavg 84.5¢ | $117.58 | $105.21 | -$12.37 | 54% 14435-12266 (26701) |
 MayorMamdaniARB<$100 | Upavg 70.3¢ | $141.41 | $108.58 | -$32.83 | 55% 44484-36982 (81466) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 80.3¢ | $65.07 | — | -$65.07 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 70.3¢ | $76.34 | $108.58 | +$32.24 | |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 72.9¢ | $120.89 | $101.19 | -$19.7 | 66% 125156-64405 (189561) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 58¢ | $18.81 | $17.36 | -$1.45 | 52% 89831-84292 (174123) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 85.7¢ | $81.65 | $72.6 | -$9.05 | 61% 94398-59400 (153798) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 79¢ | $21.46 | $25.27 | +$3.81 | 62% 43666-26656 (70322) |
 NIULAI4<$100 | Upavg 85.6¢ | $18.84 | $22 | +$3.16 | 77% 9336-2778 (12114) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Upavg 90¢ | $41.03 | $29.51 | -$11.52 | 63% 51566-30344 (81910) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 80¢ | $72.13 | $51.7 | -$10.23 | 65% 22398-12314 (34712) |
GO GoodRecipient<$100 | Upavg 50.5¢ | $10.51 | $20 | +$9.49 | 43% 597-782 (1379) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $10.97 | $21.51 | +$10.54 | 58% 60288-44012 (104300) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 55.4¢ | $36.7 | $60.95 | +$24.25 | 55% 17660-14270 (31930) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 87.6¢ | $100.38 | $114.59 | +$14.22 | 57% 70341-53444 (123785) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $5.2 | $10 | +$4.8 | 58% 37571-26826 (64397) |
DE devonpoll | Upavg 71.3¢ | $250.12 | $21.54 | -$60.47 | 51% 19919-19076 (38995) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 14¢ | $3.39 | — | -$3.39 | 64% 39879-22782 (62661) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Downavg 15¢ | $1.5 | — | -$1.5 | 50% 7745-7761 (15506) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $5.03 | $10.48 | +$5.45 | 56% 57773-44618 (102391) |
Invested
$503.33
Value
$620.02
PnL
+$116.69
Record
57%
10261-7686 (17947)
Invested
$161.26
Value
$162.89
PnL
+$1.63
Record
93%
22962-1751 (24713)
Invested
$201.6
Value
$150
PnL
-$51.6
Record
57%
6629-4911 (11540)
Invested
$107.6
Value
$160
PnL
+$52.4
Record
73%
95012-35644 (130656)
Invested
$117.58
Value
$105.21
PnL
-$12.37
Record
54%
14435-12266 (26701)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100Invested
$141.41
Value
$108.58
PnL
-$32.83
Record
55%
44484-36982 (81466)
Both legs:
Invested
$120.89
Value
$101.19
PnL
-$19.7
Record
66%
125156-64405 (189561)
Invested
$18.81
Value
$17.36
PnL
-$1.45
Record
52%
89831-84292 (174123)
Invested
$81.65
Value
$72.6
PnL
-$9.05
Record
61%
94398-59400 (153798)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$21.46
Value
$25.27
PnL
+$3.81
Record
62%
43666-26656 (70322)
NIULAI4<$100Invested
$18.84
Value
$22
PnL
+$3.16
Record
77%
9336-2778 (12114)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$41.03
Value
$29.51
PnL
-$11.52
Record
63%
51566-30344 (81910)
Invested
$72.13
Value
$51.7
PnL
-$10.23
Record
65%
22398-12314 (34712)
Invested
$10.51
Value
$20
PnL
+$9.49
Record
43%
597-782 (1379)
Invested
$10.97
Value
$21.51
PnL
+$10.54
Record
58%
60288-44012 (104300)
Invested
$36.7
Value
$60.95
PnL
+$24.25
Record
55%
17660-14270 (31930)
Invested
$100.38
Value
$114.59
PnL
+$14.22
Record
57%
70341-53444 (123785)
Invested
$5.2
Value
$10
PnL
+$4.8
Record
58%
37571-26826 (64397)
Invested
$250.12
Value
$21.54
PnL
-$60.47
Record
51%
19919-19076 (38995)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$3.39
Value
—
PnL
-$3.39
Record
64%
39879-22782 (62661)
Invested
$1.5
Value
—
PnL
-$1.5
Record
50%
7745-7761 (15506)
Invested
$5.03
Value
$10.48
PnL
+$5.45
Record
56%
57773-44618 (102391)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
trdyugiolkw
Up — $620.02
hoodquant
Up — $162.89
peepeepoopoo24
Up — $150
0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144
Up — $160
tmsd-test
Up — $105.21
MayorMamdani
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdaefef
Up — $101.19
dvasdkasodk
Up — $17.36
asidjasiodja
Up — $72.6
G-Penis-Monster
Up — $25.27