Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
11
Down 80%
3 arb excluded
$1.3K
$6.77
Smart Money Signal
8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100 | Downavg 65.5¢ | $378.04 | $355.65 | -$22.39 | 57% 10261-7686 (17947) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 18.8¢ | $145.24 | — | -$145.24 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 65.5¢ | $232.8 | $355.65 | +$122.85 | |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 71.4¢ | $392.76 | $412.19 | +$19.43 | 56% 14298-11217 (25515) |
 MayorMamdaniARB<$100 | Downavg 79.5¢ | $144.34 | $151.99 | +$7.65 | 55% 44484-36982 (81466) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 79.5¢ | $120.91 | $151.99 | +$31.09 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 38.8¢ | $23.43 | — | -$23.43 | |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Downavg 68.3¢ | $66.7 | $70 | +$3.3 | 57% 6629-4911 (11540) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 68.3¢ | $47.8 | $70 | +$22.2 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 31.5¢ | $18.9 | — | -$18.9 | |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 82.8¢ | $106 | $128 | +$22 | 57% 70341-53444 (123785) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 32.6¢ | $25.95 | — | -$25.95 | 55% 17660-14270 (31930) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $35.28 | — | -$35.28 | 58% 37571-26826 (64397) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $49.18 | $53.28 | +$4.1 | 66% 125156-64405 (189561) |
HS Hsilverbasher<$100 | Downavg 60.3¢ | $24.72 | $41 | +$16.28 | 12% 18218-132938 (151156) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 78¢ | $24.21 | $26.21 | +$2 | 61% 94398-59400 (153798) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $10.23 | $11.63 | +$1.4 | 65% 22398-12314 (34712) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $4.93 | $6.75 | +$1.82 | 66% 111875-58207 (170082) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 84¢ | $5.1 | $6.07 | +$0.97 | 52% 89831-84292 (174123) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 25.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19919-19076 (38995) |
Invested
$378.04
Value
$355.65
PnL
-$22.39
Record
57%
10261-7686 (17947)
Both legs:
Invested
$392.76
Value
$412.19
PnL
+$19.43
Record
56%
14298-11217 (25515)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100Invested
$144.34
Value
$151.99
PnL
+$7.65
Record
55%
44484-36982 (81466)
Both legs:
Invested
$66.7
Value
$70
PnL
+$3.3
Record
57%
6629-4911 (11540)
Both legs:
Invested
$106
Value
$128
PnL
+$22
Record
57%
70341-53444 (123785)
Invested
$25.95
Value
—
PnL
-$25.95
Record
55%
17660-14270 (31930)
Invested
$35.28
Value
—
PnL
-$35.28
Record
58%
37571-26826 (64397)
Invested
$49.18
Value
$53.28
PnL
+$4.1
Record
66%
125156-64405 (189561)
Invested
$24.72
Value
$41
PnL
+$16.28
Record
12%
18218-132938 (151156)
Invested
$24.21
Value
$26.21
PnL
+$2
Record
61%
94398-59400 (153798)
Invested
$10.23
Value
$11.63
PnL
+$1.4
Record
65%
22398-12314 (34712)
Invested
$4.93
Value
$6.75
PnL
+$1.82
Record
66%
111875-58207 (170082)
Invested
$5.1
Value
$6.07
PnL
+$0.97
Record
52%
89831-84292 (174123)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19919-19076 (38995)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
trdyugiolkw
ARBArbitrage — excluded
CrouchPredictions
Down — $412.19
MayorMamdani
ARBArbitrage — excluded
peepeepoopoo24
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
Down — $128
Kathod-Shi-14
CTRUp — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
asdaefef
Down — $53.28
Hsilverbasher
Down — $41
asidjasiodja
Down — $26.21