Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
19
Down 74%
2 arb excluded
$4.3K
$503.04
Smart Money Signal
14 of 19 top traders (74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 63.3¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$52.27 | 56% 14287-11206 (25493) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.5¢ | $780.36 | $791.89 | +$11.53 | 93% 22942-1749 (24691) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Downavg 52¢ | $604.48 | $717.31 | +$112.83 | 57% 10246-7680 (17926) |
TM tmsd-test | Downavg 79.7¢ | $668.75 | $838.87 | +$170.12 | 54% 14429-12264 (26693) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Downavg 55.4¢ | $100.08 | $95.3 | -$4.78 | 57% 6624-4907 (11531) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 52.5¢ | $53.97 | $101 | +$47.03 | 58% 37558-26812 (64370) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Downavg 68.9¢ | $84.03 | $121.89 | +$37.86 | 58% 60278-44004 (104282) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 54.7¢ | $76.31 | $139.5 | +$63.19 | 34% 18648-35642 (54290) |
AS asdaefefARB<$100 | Downavg 64.6¢ | $93.03 | $81.61 | -$11.42 | 66% 125109-64377 (189486) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 64.6¢ | $52.76 | $81.61 | +$28.85 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 68.5¢ | $40.27 | — | -$40.27 | |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Downavg 68¢ | $68.2 | $100.29 | +$32.09 | 56% 57762-44611 (102373) |
 MayorMamdaniARB<$100 | Upavg 68.1¢ | $64.73 | $53 | -$11.73 | 55% 44462-36957 (81419) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 68.1¢ | $39.24 | — | -$39.24 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.1¢ | $25.49 | $53 | +$27.51 | |
GO GoodRecipientCTR<$100 | Upavg 69.4¢ | $34.69 | — | -$34.69 | 43% 596-782 (1378) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $40.5 | $75 | +$34.5 | 58% 12546-9208 (21754) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 92.3¢ | $35.65 | $28.93 | -$5.79 | 65% 22359-12289 (34648) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 69.5¢ | $32.86 | $29.31 | -$3.55 | 61% 94365-59372 (153737) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $12.39 | $12.64 | +$0.25 | 63% 51542-30333 (81875) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Upavg 54¢ | $9.45 | — | -$9.45 | 50% 7744-7758 (15502) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 79¢ | $7.55 | — | -$7.55 | 55% 17653-14260 (31913) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 57.8¢ | $5.1 | — | -$5.1 | 66% 111846-58190 (170036) |
TH TheImpasse<$100 | Downavg 12¢ | $2 | $16.66 | +$14.66 | 21% 140-519 (659) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 25.9¢ | $2.38 | — | -$2.38 | 52% 89796-84260 (174056) |
Invested
$1,075.45
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$52.27
Record
56%
14287-11206 (25493)
Invested
$780.36
Value
$791.89
PnL
+$11.53
Record
93%
22942-1749 (24691)
Invested
$604.48
Value
$717.31
PnL
+$112.83
Record
57%
10246-7680 (17926)
Invested
$668.75
Value
$838.87
PnL
+$170.12
Record
54%
14429-12264 (26693)
Invested
$100.08
Value
$95.3
PnL
-$4.78
Record
57%
6624-4907 (11531)
Invested
$53.97
Value
$101
PnL
+$47.03
Record
58%
37558-26812 (64370)
Invested
$84.03
Value
$121.89
PnL
+$37.86
Record
58%
60278-44004 (104282)
Invested
$76.31
Value
$139.5
PnL
+$63.19
Record
34%
18648-35642 (54290)
Invested
$93.03
Value
$81.61
PnL
-$11.42
Record
66%
125109-64377 (189486)
Both legs:
Invested
$68.2
Value
$100.29
PnL
+$32.09
Record
56%
57762-44611 (102373)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100Invested
$64.73
Value
$53
PnL
-$11.73
Record
55%
44462-36957 (81419)
Both legs:
Invested
$34.69
Value
—
PnL
-$34.69
Record
43%
596-782 (1378)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$40.5
Value
$75
PnL
+$34.5
Record
58%
12546-9208 (21754)
Invested
$35.65
Value
$28.93
PnL
-$5.79
Record
65%
22359-12289 (34648)
Invested
$32.86
Value
$29.31
PnL
-$3.55
Record
61%
94365-59372 (153737)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$12.39
Value
$12.64
PnL
+$0.25
Record
63%
51542-30333 (81875)
Invested
$9.45
Value
—
PnL
-$9.45
Record
50%
7744-7758 (15502)
Invested
$7.55
Value
—
PnL
-$7.55
Record
55%
17653-14260 (31913)
Invested
$5.1
Value
—
PnL
-$5.1
Record
66%
111846-58190 (170036)
Invested
$2
Value
$16.66
PnL
+$14.66
Record
21%
140-519 (659)
Invested
$2.38
Value
—
PnL
-$2.38
Record
52%
89796-84260 (174056)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.1K
hoodquant
Down — $791.89
trdyugiolkw
Down — $717.31
tmsd-test
Down — $838.87
peepeepoopoo24
Down — $95.3
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $101
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $121.89
Little-big
Down — $139.5
asdaefef
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $100.29