Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Up β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
Resolved Up. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
π
Won
18
Up 61%
2 arb excluded
$3.5K
-$52.26
Smart Money Signal
11 of 18 top traders (61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.9Β’ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$11.35 | 93% 22942-1749 (24691) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 65.8Β’ | $914.68 | $1.0K | +$118.41 | 56% 14287-11206 (25493) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Upavg 54.3Β’ | $672.16 | $747.9 | +$75.74 | 57% 10246-7680 (17926) |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Upavg 66.6Β’ | $161.3 | $143.35 | -$17.95 | 57% 6624-4907 (11531) |
| β Down leg | Downavg 52.3Β’ | $65.81 | β | -$65.81 | |
| β Up leg | Upavg 66.6Β’ | $95.49 | $143.35 | +$47.86 | |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR | Downavg 70.8Β’ | $113.56 | β | -$113.56 | 56% 57762-44611 (102373) |
AS asdaefefARB<$100 | Upavg 53.9Β’ | $131.72 | $123.01 | -$8.71 | 66% 125109-64377 (189486) |
| β Down leg | Downavg 64.8Β’ | $65.47 | β | -$65.47 | |
| β Up leg | Upavg 53.9Β’ | $66.25 | $123.01 | +$56.76 | |
LI Little-bigCTR | Downavg 56.8Β’ | $113.66 | β | -$113.66 | 34% 18648-35642 (54290) |
DE devonpoll | Upavg 74.1Β’ | $138.4 | $186.79 | +$48.39 | 51% 19907-19065 (38972) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 70.3Β’ | $49.13 | β | -$49.13 | 61% 94365-59372 (153737) |
![]() wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Downavg 55.9Β’ | $40.5 | β | -$40.5 | 58% 12546-9208 (21754) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 28.3Β’ | $13.16 | $32.82 | +$19.66 | 52% 89796-84260 (174056) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR<$100 | Downavg 26Β’ | $13 | β | -$13 | 73% 95012-35644 (130656) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 95Β’ | $29.78 | $28.53 | -$0.35 | 65% 22359-12289 (34648) |
![]() MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 59.7Β’ | $38.86 | $65.07 | +$26.21 | 55% 44462-36957 (81419) |
![]() ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 71.5Β’ | $32.53 | β | -$32.53 | 64% 39870-22776 (62646) |
![]() UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Upavg 96.3Β’ | $14.57 | $15.13 | +$0.56 | 63% 51542-30333 (81875) |
![]() BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Downavg 66Β’ | $9.37 | β | -$9.37 | 74% 102303-36356 (138659) |
GO GoodRecipient<$100 | Upavg 28Β’ | $2.8 | $10 | +$7.2 | 43% 596-782 (1378) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Upavg 41Β’ | $6.15 | $15 | +$8.85 | 50% 7744-7758 (15502) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 39Β’ | $2.22 | $5.68 | +$3.46 | 58% 37558-26812 (64370) |
Invested
$1,050.5
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$11.35
Record
93%
22942-1749 (24691)
Invested
$914.68
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$118.41
Record
56%
14287-11206 (25493)
Invested
$672.16
Value
$747.9
PnL
+$75.74
Record
57%
10246-7680 (17926)
Invested
$161.3
Value
$143.35
PnL
-$17.95
Record
57%
6624-4907 (11531)
Both legs:
Invested
$113.56
Value
β
PnL
-$113.56
Record
56%
57762-44611 (102373)
Invested
$131.72
Value
$123.01
PnL
-$8.71
Record
66%
125109-64377 (189486)
Both legs:
Invested
$113.66
Value
β
PnL
-$113.66
Record
34%
18648-35642 (54290)
Invested
$138.4
Value
$186.79
PnL
+$48.39
Record
51%
19907-19065 (38972)
Invested
$49.13
Value
β
PnL
-$49.13
Record
61%
94365-59372 (153737)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$40.5
Value
β
PnL
-$40.5
Record
58%
12546-9208 (21754)
Invested
$13.16
Value
$32.82
PnL
+$19.66
Record
52%
89796-84260 (174056)
Invested
$13
Value
β
PnL
-$13
Record
73%
95012-35644 (130656)
Invested
$29.78
Value
$28.53
PnL
-$0.35
Record
65%
22359-12289 (34648)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$38.86
Value
$65.07
PnL
+$26.21
Record
55%
44462-36957 (81419)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$32.53
Value
β
PnL
-$32.53
Record
64%
39870-22776 (62646)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$14.57
Value
$15.13
PnL
+$0.56
Record
63%
51542-30333 (81875)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$9.37
Value
β
PnL
-$9.37
Record
74%
102303-36356 (138659)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$10
PnL
+$7.2
Record
43%
596-782 (1378)
Invested
$6.15
Value
$15
PnL
+$8.85
Record
50%
7744-7758 (15502)
Invested
$2.22
Value
$5.68
PnL
+$3.46
Record
58%
37558-26812 (64370)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Up β $1.1K
CrouchPredictions
Up β $1.0K
trdyugiolkw
Up β $747.9
peepeepoopoo24
ARBArbitrage β excluded
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRDown β $0
asdaefef
ARBArbitrage β excluded
Little-big
CTRDown β $0
devonpoll
Up β $186.79
asidjasiodja
CTRDown β $0

wowitsamazing
CTRDown β $0