Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
13
Down 75%
3 arb excluded
$2.6K
-$37.95
Smart Money Signal
10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $775.15 | $725.98 | -$49.17 | 56% 14287-11206 (25493) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 79¢ | $573.83 | $725.98 | +$152.16 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 18.5¢ | $201.32 | — | -$201.32 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $628.65 | $635 | +$6.35 | 93% 22942-1749 (24691) |
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100 | Downavg 75.5¢ | $406.09 | $402.94 | -$3.15 | 57% 10246-7680 (17926) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 75.5¢ | $304.16 | $402.94 | +$98.78 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 18.2¢ | $101.93 | — | -$101.93 | |
TM tmsd-testARB<$100 | Downavg 62.4¢ | $304.84 | $371 | +$66.15 | 54% 14429-12264 (26693) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 62.4¢ | $231.65 | $371 | +$139.35 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 19.1¢ | $73.2 | — | -$73.2 | |
RL RLWG | Downavg 74.4¢ | $108.36 | $145.69 | +$37.33 | 50% 7744-7758 (15502) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Downavg 69.7¢ | $117.96 | $115.21 | -$2.75 | 57% 6624-4907 (11531) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 76.1¢ | $70.48 | $80 | +$9.52 | 55% 44462-36957 (81419) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $27.7 | $49.99 | +$22.3 | 58% 37558-26812 (64370) |
 wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Upavg 52.2¢ | $39 | — | -$39 | 58% 12546-9208 (21754) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 85.8¢ | $40.8 | $44.1 | +$3.3 | 66% 125109-64377 (189486) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 60¢ | $36 | — | -$36 | 51% 19907-19065 (38972) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Upavg 53.7¢ | $33.55 | — | -$33.55 | 34% 18648-35642 (54290) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 94.7¢ | $32.49 | $34.32 | +$1.83 | 61% 94365-59372 (153737) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 93.1¢ | $15.83 | $17.01 | +$1.18 | 63% 51542-30333 (81875) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $12.23 | $11 | -$1.23 | 52% 89796-84260 (174056) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 81.7¢ | $22.27 | $0.11 | -$7.23 | 65% 22359-12289 (34648) |
Invested
$775.15
Value
$725.98
PnL
-$49.17
Record
56%
14287-11206 (25493)
Both legs:
Invested
$628.65
Value
$635
PnL
+$6.35
Record
93%
22942-1749 (24691)
Invested
$406.09
Value
$402.94
PnL
-$3.15
Record
57%
10246-7680 (17926)
Both legs:
Invested
$304.84
Value
$371
PnL
+$66.15
Record
54%
14429-12264 (26693)
Both legs:
Invested
$108.36
Value
$145.69
PnL
+$37.33
Record
50%
7744-7758 (15502)
Invested
$117.96
Value
$115.21
PnL
-$2.75
Record
57%
6624-4907 (11531)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$70.48
Value
$80
PnL
+$9.52
Record
55%
44462-36957 (81419)
Invested
$27.7
Value
$49.99
PnL
+$22.3
Record
58%
37558-26812 (64370)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$39
Value
—
PnL
-$39
Record
58%
12546-9208 (21754)
Invested
$40.8
Value
$44.1
PnL
+$3.3
Record
66%
125109-64377 (189486)
Invested
$36
Value
—
PnL
-$36
Record
51%
19907-19065 (38972)
Invested
$33.55
Value
—
PnL
-$33.55
Record
34%
18648-35642 (54290)
Invested
$32.49
Value
$34.32
PnL
+$1.83
Record
61%
94365-59372 (153737)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$15.83
Value
$17.01
PnL
+$1.18
Record
63%
51542-30333 (81875)
Invested
$12.23
Value
$11
PnL
-$1.23
Record
52%
89796-84260 (174056)
Invested
$22.27
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$7.23
Record
65%
22359-12289 (34648)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $635
trdyugiolkw
ARBArbitrage — excluded
tmsd-test
ARBArbitrage — excluded
RLWG
Down — $145.69
peepeepoopoo24
Down — $115.21
MayorMamdani
Down — $80
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $49.99
wowitsamazing
CTRUp — $0
asdaefef
Down — $44.1