Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 39% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
23
Up 39%
4 arb excluded
$2.9K
$-2.4K
Smart Money Signal
9 of 23 top traders (39%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RL RLWGCTR | Upavg 51.8¢ | $2.5K | — | $-2.5K | 50% 7741-7756 (15497) |
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100 | Upavg 56¢ | $667.73 | $534.78 | -$132.95 | 57% 10235-7671 (17906) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56¢ | $404.22 | — | -$404.22 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.3¢ | $263.51 | $534.78 | +$271.27 | |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Upavg 43.5¢ | $581.35 | $379.65 | -$201.7 | 56% 14271-11198 (25469) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 43.5¢ | $326.16 | — | -$326.16 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 67.2¢ | $255.19 | $379.65 | +$124.46 | |
TH thesidehustleARB<$100 | Downavg 58.9¢ | $484.11 | $461.74 | -$22.37 | 54% 10671-9116 (19787) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 58.9¢ | $272.05 | $461.74 | +$189.69 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 40.9¢ | $212.07 | — | -$212.07 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.7¢ | $331.17 | $335.62 | +$4.45 | 93% 22919-1748 (24667) |
 wowitsamazing | Downavg 42.4¢ | $207 | $488.69 | +$281.69 | 58% 12546-9207 (21753) |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Downavg 67.1¢ | $198.62 | $164.35 | -$34.27 | 57% 6621-4900 (11521) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 67.1¢ | $110.24 | $164.35 | +$54.1 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.5¢ | $88.37 | — | -$88.37 | |
TM tmsd-test | Downavg 50¢ | $149.89 | $253.74 | +$103.86 | 54% 14426-12254 (26680) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 79.2¢ | $88.16 | $86.52 | -$1.63 | 61% 94330-59348 (153678) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 67.2¢ | $92.6 | — | -$75.38 | 51% 19894-19056 (38950) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 51.4¢ | $80.66 | — | -$80.66 | 66% 125065-64347 (189412) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Upavg 52.4¢ | $54.06 | — | -$54.06 | 34% 18638-35630 (54268) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 80.2¢ | $59.58 | $51 | -$6.72 | 65% 22322-12252 (34574) |
 NIULAI4<$100 | Downavg 91.5¢ | $44.82 | $49 | +$4.18 | 77% 9323-2765 (12088) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 65.3¢ | $31.97 | $37.01 | +$5.04 | 66% 111826-58168 (169994) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 50.8¢ | $78.15 | — | -$78.15 | 64% 39845-22764 (62609) |
AS asabovesobelow2<$100 | Downavg 93.4¢ | $33.5 | $35.86 | +$2.36 | 69% 1609-729 (2338) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 29.9¢ | $11.71 | — | -$11.71 | 52% 89759-84223 (173982) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $9.33 | $19.04 | +$9.71 | 58% 50870-37018 (87888) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 60.1¢ | $10.88 | — | -$10.88 | 63% 51515-30317 (81832) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Downavg 92.5¢ | $9.8 | $10.59 | +$0.79 | 65% 3962-2141 (6103) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 89¢ | $8.65 | $5 | -$3.65 | 55% 44432-36934 (81366) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $3.35 | $5 | +$1.65 | 74% 102296-36354 (138650) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 33¢ | $2.19 | — | -$2.19 | 56% 57739-44602 (102341) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 26¢ | $1.3 | $5 | +$3.7 | 58% 37542-26799 (64341) |
Invested
$2,500
Value
—
PnL
$-2.5K
Record
50%
7741-7756 (15497)
Invested
$667.73
Value
$534.78
PnL
-$132.95
Record
57%
10235-7671 (17906)
Both legs:
Invested
$581.35
Value
$379.65
PnL
-$201.7
Record
56%
14271-11198 (25469)
Both legs:
Invested
$484.11
Value
$461.74
PnL
-$22.37
Record
54%
10671-9116 (19787)
Both legs:
Invested
$331.17
Value
$335.62
PnL
+$4.45
Record
93%
22919-1748 (24667)
wowitsamazingInvested
$207
Value
$488.69
PnL
+$281.69
Record
58%
12546-9207 (21753)
Invested
$198.62
Value
$164.35
PnL
-$34.27
Record
57%
6621-4900 (11521)
Both legs:
Invested
$149.89
Value
$253.74
PnL
+$103.86
Record
54%
14426-12254 (26680)
Invested
$88.16
Value
$86.52
PnL
-$1.63
Record
61%
94330-59348 (153678)
Invested
$92.6
Value
—
PnL
-$75.38
Record
51%
19894-19056 (38950)
Invested
$80.66
Value
—
PnL
-$80.66
Record
66%
125065-64347 (189412)
Invested
$54.06
Value
—
PnL
-$54.06
Record
34%
18638-35630 (54268)
Invested
$59.58
Value
$51
PnL
-$6.72
Record
65%
22322-12252 (34574)
NIULAI4<$100Invested
$44.82
Value
$49
PnL
+$4.18
Record
77%
9323-2765 (12088)
Invested
$31.97
Value
$37.01
PnL
+$5.04
Record
66%
111826-58168 (169994)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$78.15
Value
—
PnL
-$78.15
Record
64%
39845-22764 (62609)
Invested
$33.5
Value
$35.86
PnL
+$2.36
Record
69%
1609-729 (2338)
Invested
$11.71
Value
—
PnL
-$11.71
Record
52%
89759-84223 (173982)
Invested
$9.33
Value
$19.04
PnL
+$9.71
Record
58%
50870-37018 (87888)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$10.88
Value
—
PnL
-$10.88
Record
63%
51515-30317 (81832)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$9.8
Value
$10.59
PnL
+$0.79
Record
65%
3962-2141 (6103)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$8.65
Value
$5
PnL
-$3.65
Record
55%
44432-36934 (81366)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$3.35
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.65
Record
74%
102296-36354 (138650)
Invested
$2.19
Value
—
PnL
-$2.19
Record
56%
57739-44602 (102341)
Invested
$1.3
Value
$5
PnL
+$3.7
Record
58%
37542-26799 (64341)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
RLWG
CTRUp — $0
trdyugiolkw
ARBArbitrage — excluded
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
thesidehustle
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $335.62
wowitsamazing
Down — $488.69
peepeepoopoo24
ARBArbitrage — excluded
tmsd-test
Down — $253.74
asidjasiodja
Down — $86.52
devonpoll
CTRUp — $0