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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET

Resolved Up. 38% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

16

Down 40%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$-2.4K

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 16 top traders (38%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,582

Combined PnL$-2.5K

Up10 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,049

Combined PnL+$128.25

Down — 38%Up — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Downavg 63.8¢	$1.3K	—	$-1.3K	56% 14197-11140 (25337)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR	Downavg 59.3¢	$1.1K	—	$-1.1K	57% 10233-7665 (17898)
TH thesidehustle	Upavg 65.1¢	$588.84	$546.48	-$42.36	54% 10645-9096 (19741)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 87.1¢	$112.06	$128.66	+$16.6	55% 44407-36899 (81306)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 61.8¢	$95.4	$105.1	+$9.7	57% 6617-4895 (11512)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 44.2¢	$56.71	$128.24	+$71.53	58% 60259-43977 (104236)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 26.9¢	$36.09	—	-$36.09	61% 94291-59323 (153614)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 64.9¢	$89.5	$43.71	+$11.74	65% 22283-12231 (34514)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 33.7¢	$13.38	$39.67	+$26.29	52% 89734-84193 (173927)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Downavg 23.8¢	$24.57	—	-$24.57	66% 125021-64333 (189354)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 67¢	$16.77	—	-$16.77	64% 39836-22759 (62595)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Downavg 99¢	$12.58	—	-$12.58	63% 51496-30306 (81802)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 73¢	$16.22	$22.22	+$6	62% 43652-26628 (70280)
TH TheImpasse<$100	Upavg 8¢	$2	$24.99	+$23	21% 140-519 (659)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 42.5¢	$4.25	$10	+$5.75	55% 17594-14210 (31804)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 11¢	—	—	+$0	51% 19890-19043 (38933)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$1,290.62

Value

—

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

56%

14197-11140 (25337)

Invested

$1,105.03

Value

—

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

57%

10233-7665 (17898)

Invested

$588.84

Value

$546.48

PnL

-$42.36

Record

54%

10645-9096 (19741)

Invested

$112.06

Value

$128.66

PnL

+$16.6

Record

55%

44407-36899 (81306)

Invested

$95.4

Value

$105.1

PnL

+$9.7

Record

57%

6617-4895 (11512)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$56.71

Value

$128.24

PnL

+$71.53

Record

58%

60259-43977 (104236)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$36.09

Value

—

PnL

-$36.09

Record

61%

94291-59323 (153614)

Invested

$89.5

Value

$43.71

PnL

+$11.74

Record

65%

22283-12231 (34514)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$13.38

Value

$39.67

PnL

+$26.29

Record

52%

89734-84193 (173927)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$24.57

Value

—

PnL

-$24.57

Record

66%

125021-64333 (189354)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$16.77

Value

—

PnL

-$16.77

Record

64%

39836-22759 (62595)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Invested

$12.58

Value

—

PnL

-$12.58

Record

63%

51496-30306 (81802)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$16.22

Value

$22.22

PnL

+$6

Record

62%

43652-26628 (70280)

TheImpasse<$100

Invested

$2

Value

$24.99

PnL

+$23

Record

21%

140-519 (659)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$4.25

Value

$10

PnL

+$5.75

Record

55%

17594-14210 (31804)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

19890-19043 (38933)

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 16 top traders (38%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x497e6a6f...a6952d

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1793263500

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

Down — $0

trdyugiolkw

Down — $0

thesidehustle

Up — $546.48

MayorMamdani

Up — $128.66

peepeepoopoo24

Up — $105.1

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $128.24

asidjasiodja

Down — $0

aaa221

Up — $43.71

dvasdkasodk

Up — $39.67

asdaefef

Down — $0

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