Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
9
Down 67%
4 arb excluded
$1.5K
$22.78
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100 | Downavg 68.4¢ | $480.86 | $424.75 | -$56.11 | 57% 10233-7665 (17898) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 68.4¢ | $290.42 | $424.75 | +$134.33 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 34.2¢ | $190.43 | — | -$190.43 | |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 76.9¢ | $491.08 | $401.47 | -$89.61 | 56% 14197-11140 (25337) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 76.9¢ | $308.62 | $401.47 | +$92.85 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32.2¢ | $182.46 | — | -$182.46 | |
TH thesidehustleARB<$100 | Downavg 64.5¢ | $152.13 | $188.33 | +$36.2 | 54% 10645-9096 (19741) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 64.5¢ | $121.53 | $188.33 | +$66.8 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 34¢ | $30.6 | — | -$30.6 | |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Downavg 58.2¢ | $109.65 | $110 | +$0.35 | 57% 6617-4895 (11512) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 58.2¢ | $64 | $110 | +$46 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56.4¢ | $45.65 | — | -$45.65 | |
TM tmsd-test<$100 | Downavg 78¢ | $73.39 | $94.09 | +$20.7 | 54% 14422-12251 (26673) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 68.6¢ | $65.95 | $62.99 | -$2.96 | 66% 125021-64333 (189354) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Downavg 71¢ | $72.11 | $101.56 | +$29.45 | 56% 57728-44595 (102323) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Downavg 71¢ | $71.1 | $100.14 | +$29.04 | 58% 60259-43977 (104236) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 30.8¢ | $33.23 | — | -$33.23 | 51% 19890-19043 (38933) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 44.8¢ | $29.39 | $40.67 | +$11.28 | 55% 44407-36899 (81306) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 38.8¢ | $17.5 | — | -$17.5 | 55% 17594-14210 (31804) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $24.76 | $14 | -$10.76 | 61% 94291-59323 (153614) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 31¢ | $3.24 | — | -$3.24 | 52% 89734-84193 (173927) |
Invested
$480.86
Value
$424.75
PnL
-$56.11
Record
57%
10233-7665 (17898)
Both legs:
Invested
$491.08
Value
$401.47
PnL
-$89.61
Record
56%
14197-11140 (25337)
Both legs:
Invested
$152.13
Value
$188.33
PnL
+$36.2
Record
54%
10645-9096 (19741)
Both legs:
Invested
$109.65
Value
$110
PnL
+$0.35
Record
57%
6617-4895 (11512)
Both legs:
Invested
$73.39
Value
$94.09
PnL
+$20.7
Record
54%
14422-12251 (26673)
Invested
$65.95
Value
$62.99
PnL
-$2.96
Record
66%
125021-64333 (189354)
Invested
$72.11
Value
$101.56
PnL
+$29.45
Record
56%
57728-44595 (102323)
Invested
$71.1
Value
$100.14
PnL
+$29.04
Record
58%
60259-43977 (104236)
Invested
$33.23
Value
—
PnL
-$33.23
Record
51%
19890-19043 (38933)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$29.39
Value
$40.67
PnL
+$11.28
Record
55%
44407-36899 (81306)
Invested
$17.5
Value
—
PnL
-$17.5
Record
55%
17594-14210 (31804)
Invested
$24.76
Value
$14
PnL
-$10.76
Record
61%
94291-59323 (153614)
Invested
$3.24
Value
—
PnL
-$3.24
Record
52%
89734-84193 (173927)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
trdyugiolkw
ARBArbitrage — excluded
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
thesidehustle
ARBArbitrage — excluded
peepeepoopoo24
ARBArbitrage — excluded
tmsd-test
Down — $94.09
asdaefef
Down — $62.99
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $101.56
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $100.14
devonpoll
CTRUp — $0
MayorMamdani
Down — $40.67