Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
19
Down 68%
4 arb excluded
$5.6K
-$178.75
Smart Money Signal
13 of 19 top traders (68%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.4¢ | $2.8K | $2.9K | +$95.6 | 68% 99024-47353 (146377) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.4¢ | $1.6K | — | $-1.6K | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 41.1¢ | $1.2K | $2.9K | +$1.7K | |
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100 | Upavg 46.9¢ | $886.27 | $771.36 | -$114.91 | 57% 10233-7665 (17898) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46.9¢ | $510.3 | — | -$510.3 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.7¢ | $375.96 | $771.36 | +$395.4 | |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Upavg 51.6¢ | $775.27 | $716.74 | -$58.53 | 56% 14197-11140 (25337) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.6¢ | $409.83 | — | -$409.83 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51¢ | $365.43 | $716.74 | +$351.3 | |
TH thesidehustle | Downavg 67.5¢ | $309.04 | $258.7 | -$50.34 | 54% 10645-9096 (19741) |
 ohioismCTR | Upavg 66¢ | $118.14 | — | -$118.14 | 64% 39836-22759 (62595) |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Upavg 65.2¢ | $124.72 | $104.36 | -$20.36 | 57% 6617-4895 (11512) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 65.2¢ | $64.86 | — | -$64.86 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.4¢ | $59.86 | $104.36 | +$44.5 | |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $90.62 | $91.54 | +$0.92 | 93% 22893-1747 (24640) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 67.9¢ | $85.48 | — | -$85.48 | 58% 60259-43977 (104236) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 65.8¢ | $87.46 | — | -$87.46 | 66% 125021-64333 (189354) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 78.6¢ | $90.48 | — | -$90.48 | 61% 94291-59323 (153614) |
BO bosona | Downavg 66¢ | $85.21 | $125 | +$39.79 | 55% 49400-39611 (89011) |
AS asabovesobelow2 | Downavg 72.2¢ | $97.25 | $134.78 | +$37.53 | 69% 1606-727 (2333) |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 73¢ | $89.78 | $123 | +$33.22 | 77% 9320-2762 (12082) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 58.1¢ | $45.49 | $61.7 | +$16.21 | 66% 111803-58146 (169949) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $27 | $45 | +$18 | 58% 37531-26786 (64317) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Downavg 72.6¢ | $34.3 | $47.22 | +$12.92 | 65% 3956-2135 (6091) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 60.6¢ | $12.4 | — | -$12.4 | 55% 17594-14210 (31804) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $28.98 | $29.57 | +$0.59 | 62% 43652-26628 (70280) |
TM tmsd-test | Downavg 34¢ | $53.05 | $156.12 | +$103.07 | 54% 14422-12251 (26673) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 59.5¢ | $5.95 | — | -$5.95 | 55% 44407-36899 (81306) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 64.9¢ | $74.59 | $20 | -$34.49 | 65% 22283-12231 (34514) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $19.74 | $42 | +$22.26 | 56% 57728-44595 (102323) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 30.9¢ | $9.61 | $31.08 | +$21.47 | 52% 89734-84193 (173927) |
Invested
$2,765.62
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$95.6
Record
68%
99024-47353 (146377)
Both legs:
Invested
$886.27
Value
$771.36
PnL
-$114.91
Record
57%
10233-7665 (17898)
Both legs:
Invested
$775.27
Value
$716.74
PnL
-$58.53
Record
56%
14197-11140 (25337)
Both legs:
Invested
$309.04
Value
$258.7
PnL
-$50.34
Record
54%
10645-9096 (19741)
ohioismCTRInvested
$118.14
Value
—
PnL
-$118.14
Record
64%
39836-22759 (62595)
Invested
$124.72
Value
$104.36
PnL
-$20.36
Record
57%
6617-4895 (11512)
Both legs:
Invested
$90.62
Value
$91.54
PnL
+$0.92
Record
93%
22893-1747 (24640)
Invested
$85.48
Value
—
PnL
-$85.48
Record
58%
60259-43977 (104236)
Invested
$87.46
Value
—
PnL
-$87.46
Record
66%
125021-64333 (189354)
Invested
$90.48
Value
—
PnL
-$90.48
Record
61%
94291-59323 (153614)
Invested
$85.21
Value
$125
PnL
+$39.79
Record
55%
49400-39611 (89011)
Invested
$97.25
Value
$134.78
PnL
+$37.53
Record
69%
1606-727 (2333)
NIULAI4Invested
$89.78
Value
$123
PnL
+$33.22
Record
77%
9320-2762 (12082)
Invested
$45.49
Value
$61.7
PnL
+$16.21
Record
66%
111803-58146 (169949)
Invested
$27
Value
$45
PnL
+$18
Record
58%
37531-26786 (64317)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$34.3
Value
$47.22
PnL
+$12.92
Record
65%
3956-2135 (6091)
Invested
$12.4
Value
—
PnL
-$12.4
Record
55%
17594-14210 (31804)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$28.98
Value
$29.57
PnL
+$0.59
Record
62%
43652-26628 (70280)
Invested
$53.05
Value
$156.12
PnL
+$103.07
Record
54%
14422-12251 (26673)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$5.95
Value
—
PnL
-$5.95
Record
55%
44407-36899 (81306)
Invested
$74.59
Value
$20
PnL
-$34.49
Record
65%
22283-12231 (34514)
Invested
$19.74
Value
$42
PnL
+$22.26
Record
56%
57728-44595 (102323)
Invested
$9.61
Value
$31.08
PnL
+$21.47
Record
52%
89734-84193 (173927)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
trdyugiolkw
ARBArbitrage — excluded
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
thesidehustle
Down — $258.7
ohioism
CTRUp — $0
peepeepoopoo24
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $91.54
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRUp — $0
asdaefef
CTRUp — $0
asidjasiodja
CTRUp — $0