Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET
Resolved Up. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
17
Up 76%
1 arb excluded
$3.9K
-$273.27
Smart Money Signal
13 of 17 top traders (76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 71¢ | $1.4K | $1.2K | -$162.84 | 68% 99024-47353 (146377) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 71¢ | $877.95 | $1.2K | +$358.75 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 25.7¢ | $521.59 | — | -$521.59 | |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 72.4¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$25.52 | 56% 14197-11140 (25337) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.9¢ | $963.53 | $974.11 | +$10.58 | 93% 22893-1747 (24640) |
TH thesidehustle | Upavg 71.7¢ | $330.57 | $365.45 | +$34.89 | 54% 10645-9096 (19741) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Downavg 46.7¢ | $181.05 | — | -$181.05 | 58% 37531-26786 (64317) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 49.8¢ | $99.5 | — | -$99.5 | 34% 18628-35622 (54250) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 81¢ | $82.46 | $101.8 | +$19.34 | 77% 9320-2762 (12082) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 68.7¢ | $41.22 | $59.99 | +$18.77 | 65% 22283-12231 (34514) |
AS asabovesobelow2<$100 | Upavg 79.2¢ | $26.5 | $33.47 | +$6.97 | 69% 1606-727 (2333) |
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100 | Downavg 29¢ | $41.76 | — | -$41.76 | 54% 14422-12251 (26673) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 77.7¢ | $16.85 | $20.39 | +$3.54 | 61% 94291-59323 (153614) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 79¢ | $20.94 | $17.62 | -$3.32 | 52% 89734-84193 (173927) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 65.8¢ | $18.24 | $18.7 | +$0.46 | 55% 44407-36899 (81306) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Upavg 88.2¢ | $24.02 | $16 | -$8.02 | 63% 51496-30306 (81802) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Upavg 76.9¢ | $14.7 | $19.12 | +$4.42 | 65% 3956-2135 (6091) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 26¢ | $20.65 | — | -$20.65 | 55% 17594-14210 (31804) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 78¢ | $19.9 | $25.51 | +$5.61 | 56% 57728-44595 (102323) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 71¢ | $4.79 | $6.75 | +$1.96 | 66% 111803-58146 (169949) |
Invested
$1,399.54
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$162.84
Record
68%
99024-47353 (146377)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,035.61
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$25.52
Record
56%
14197-11140 (25337)
Invested
$963.53
Value
$974.11
PnL
+$10.58
Record
93%
22893-1747 (24640)
Invested
$330.57
Value
$365.45
PnL
+$34.89
Record
54%
10645-9096 (19741)
Invested
$181.05
Value
—
PnL
-$181.05
Record
58%
37531-26786 (64317)
Invested
$99.5
Value
—
PnL
-$99.5
Record
34%
18628-35622 (54250)
NIULAI4Invested
$82.46
Value
$101.8
PnL
+$19.34
Record
77%
9320-2762 (12082)
Invested
$41.22
Value
$59.99
PnL
+$18.77
Record
65%
22283-12231 (34514)
Invested
$26.5
Value
$33.47
PnL
+$6.97
Record
69%
1606-727 (2333)
Invested
$41.76
Value
—
PnL
-$41.76
Record
54%
14422-12251 (26673)
Invested
$16.85
Value
$20.39
PnL
+$3.54
Record
61%
94291-59323 (153614)
Invested
$20.94
Value
$17.62
PnL
-$3.32
Record
52%
89734-84193 (173927)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$18.24
Value
$18.7
PnL
+$0.46
Record
55%
44407-36899 (81306)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$24.02
Value
$16
PnL
-$8.02
Record
63%
51496-30306 (81802)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$14.7
Value
$19.12
PnL
+$4.42
Record
65%
3956-2135 (6091)
Invested
$20.65
Value
—
PnL
-$20.65
Record
55%
17594-14210 (31804)
Invested
$19.9
Value
$25.51
PnL
+$5.61
Record
56%
57728-44595 (102323)
Invested
$4.79
Value
$6.75
PnL
+$1.96
Record
66%
111803-58146 (169949)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
CrouchPredictions
Up — $1.0K
hoodquant
Up — $974.11
thesidehustle
Up — $365.45
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRDown — $0
Little-big
CTRDown — $0
NIULAI4
Up — $101.8
aaa221
Up — $59.99
asabovesobelow2
Up — $33.47
tmsd-test
CTRDown — $0