Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 80%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$203.11

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 20 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down16 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares2,933

Combined PnL+$239.84

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares80

Combined PnL-$36.72

Down — 80%Up — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$961.1	$970.81	+$9.71	93% 22867-1744 (24611)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 48.4¢	$601.04	$773.8	+$172.76	56% 14197-11138 (25335)
TR trdyugiolkw	Downavg 67.9¢	$562.71	$444.97	-$117.74	57% 10224-7661 (17885)
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 57.3¢	$158.96	$230.97	+$72.01	54% 10628-9072 (19700)
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100	Upavg 43.1¢	$131.49	$161.72	+$30.24	54% 15232-13128 (28360)
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.4¢	$62.18	$161.72	+$99.54
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.1¢	$69.3	—	-$69.3
ohioismARB<$100	Upavg 68.9¢	$160.45	$107.91	-$52.53	64% 39822-22752 (62574)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.9¢	$124.32	—	-$124.32
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.5¢	$36.12	$107.91	+$71.79
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 59.7¢	$103.41	$101.97	-$1.44	57% 6611-4895 (11506)
LI Little-big	Downavg 53¢	$79.5	$150	+$70.5	34% 18620-35608 (54228)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 57.7¢	$49.04	$51.03	+$1.99	66% 111786-58127 (169913)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 73.4¢	$46.24	$43.46	-$2.78	52% 89700-84165 (173865)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 93.2¢	$39.93	$42.85	+$2.92	63% 51474-30294 (81768)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 83.6¢	$39.55	$40.43	+$0.88	61% 94254-59306 (153560)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 63.5¢	$24.67	$26.08	+$1.41	66% 124974-64321 (189295)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 49.7¢	$14.92	—	-$14.92	58% 50856-37000 (87856)
GO GoodRecipient<$100	Downavg 34¢	$10.2	$29.99	+$19.8	43% 595-781 (1376)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 70¢	$9.61	$13.73	+$4.12	62% 43648-26624 (70272)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Upavg 51.2¢	$10.25	—	-$10.25	50% 7732-7746 (15478)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 35¢	$7	—	-$7	65% 22230-12205 (34435)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 45.5¢	$4.55	—	-$4.55	55% 44381-36870 (81251)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 71¢	$3.75	$5.28	+$1.53	65% 3950-2132 (6082)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 31¢	$1.55	$5	+$3.45	55% 17546-14181 (31727)
AS asabovesobelow2<$100	Downavg 71¢	$1.75	$2.46	+$0.71	69% 1605-726 (2331)