Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET
Resolved Up. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
22
Down 67%
2 arb excluded
$1.2K
$-2.1K
Smart Money Signal
15 of 22 top traders (68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TR trdyugiolkwCTR | Downavg 41.2¢ | $830.18 | — | -$830.18 | 57% 10208-7647 (17855) |
TH thesidehustleCTR | Downavg 39.9¢ | $253.47 | — | -$253.47 | 54% 10578-9036 (19614) |
RL RLWGCTR | Downavg 50.7¢ | $205.33 | — | -$205.33 | 50% 7714-7724 (15438) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 71.6¢ | $277.01 | $263.06 | -$13.95 | 64% 57804-32541 (90345) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 71.6¢ | $192.88 | — | -$192.88 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32¢ | $84.13 | $263.06 | +$178.93 | |
AS asabovesobelow2CTR | Downavg 70.8¢ | $218 | — | -$218 | 69% 1604-726 (2330) |
 NIULAI4CTR | Downavg 69¢ | $203.22 | — | -$203.22 | 77% 9313-2755 (12068) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 47.3¢ | $151.81 | — | -$151.81 | 57% 70079-53264 (123343) |
LI Little-bigCTR | Downavg 50.2¢ | $100.58 | — | -$100.58 | 34% 18599-35593 (54192) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $467.13 | $471.85 | +$4.72 | 93% 22818-1742 (24560) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 34¢ | $49.59 | — | -$49.59 | 56% 57694-44567 (102261) |
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100 | Downavg 70.6¢ | $77.01 | — | -$77.01 | 54% 14406-12235 (26641) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100 | Upavg 87.4¢ | $119.56 | $101.3 | -$18.25 | 65% 124499-66595 (191094) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 61.8¢ | $31 | — | -$31 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 87.4¢ | $88.56 | $101.3 | +$12.75 | |
 AtomforgeCTR<$100 | Downavg 68.1¢ | $72.52 | — | -$72.52 | 65% 3944-2129 (6073) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $31.63 | — | -$31.63 | 58% 37494-26736 (64230) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 70.5¢ | $36.2 | — | -$36.2 | 55% 44309-36802 (81111) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 28.9¢ | $42.2 | $76.74 | +$34.54 | 66% 124869-64274 (189143) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 26.1¢ | $37.77 | $73.45 | +$35.68 | 61% 94187-59243 (153430) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 27.1¢ | $30.01 | $61.6 | +$31.59 | 52% 89634-84083 (173717) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 40¢ | $20.69 | $35.19 | +$14.5 | 65% 22059-12128 (34187) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Upavg 88.6¢ | $90.22 | $101.88 | +$11.66 | 58% 60218-43959 (104177) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 67.3¢ | $12.65 | — | -$12.65 | 55% 17472-14100 (31572) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 82.9¢ | $12.57 | — | -$12.57 | 63% 51408-30257 (81665) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.01 | $16.02 | +$8.01 | 58% 50845-36985 (87830) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $0.4 | — | -$0.4 | 64% 39791-22743 (62534) |
Invested
$830.18
Value
—
PnL
-$830.18
Record
57%
10208-7647 (17855)
Invested
$253.47
Value
—
PnL
-$253.47
Record
54%
10578-9036 (19614)
Invested
$205.33
Value
—
PnL
-$205.33
Record
50%
7714-7724 (15438)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$277.01
Value
$263.06
PnL
-$13.95
Record
64%
57804-32541 (90345)
Both legs:
Invested
$218
Value
—
PnL
-$218
Record
69%
1604-726 (2330)
NIULAI4CTRInvested
$203.22
Value
—
PnL
-$203.22
Record
77%
9313-2755 (12068)
Invested
$151.81
Value
—
PnL
-$151.81
Record
57%
70079-53264 (123343)
Invested
$100.58
Value
—
PnL
-$100.58
Record
34%
18599-35593 (54192)
Invested
$467.13
Value
$471.85
PnL
+$4.72
Record
93%
22818-1742 (24560)
Invested
$49.59
Value
—
PnL
-$49.59
Record
56%
57694-44567 (102261)
Invested
$77.01
Value
—
PnL
-$77.01
Record
54%
14406-12235 (26641)
Invested
$119.56
Value
$101.3
PnL
-$18.25
Record
65%
124499-66595 (191094)
Both legs:
AtomforgeCTR<$100Invested
$72.52
Value
—
PnL
-$72.52
Record
65%
3944-2129 (6073)
Invested
$31.63
Value
—
PnL
-$31.63
Record
58%
37494-26736 (64230)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$36.2
Value
—
PnL
-$36.2
Record
55%
44309-36802 (81111)
Invested
$42.2
Value
$76.74
PnL
+$34.54
Record
66%
124869-64274 (189143)
Invested
$37.77
Value
$73.45
PnL
+$35.68
Record
61%
94187-59243 (153430)
Invested
$30.01
Value
$61.6
PnL
+$31.59
Record
52%
89634-84083 (173717)
Invested
$20.69
Value
$35.19
PnL
+$14.5
Record
65%
22059-12128 (34187)
Invested
$90.22
Value
$101.88
PnL
+$11.66
Record
58%
60218-43959 (104177)
Invested
$12.65
Value
—
PnL
-$12.65
Record
55%
17472-14100 (31572)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$12.57
Value
—
PnL
-$12.57
Record
63%
51408-30257 (81665)
Invested
$8.01
Value
$16.02
PnL
+$8.01
Record
58%
50845-36985 (87830)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$0.4
Value
—
PnL
-$0.4
Record
64%
39791-22743 (62534)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
trdyugiolkw
CTRDown — $0
thesidehustle
CTRDown — $0
RLWG
CTRDown — $0
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asabovesobelow2
CTRDown — $0
NIULAI4
CTRDown — $0
uninformedfloww
CTRDown — $0
Little-big
CTRDown — $0
hoodquant
Up — $471.85
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRDown — $0