Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Down (86%) · Down at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 29

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 86%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$5.87

Smart Money Entry

65.6¢ → 100¢

+52% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down12 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,838

Combined PnL-$4.5

Up2 traders

Total Value$19.2

Total Shares50

Combined PnL-$1.36

Down — 86%Up — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AS aswfadq1555	Downavg 85.3¢	$471.67	$402.14	-$69.53	54% 15215-13117 (28332)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 49.3¢	$356.48	$358.05	+$1.57	58% 37465-26708 (64173)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 88.8¢	$265.68	$285.23	+$19.55	55% 44266-36741 (81007)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 49.4¢	$57.5	$57.66	+$0.16	34% 18574-35577 (54151)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 59¢	$33.35	$51.15	+$17.8	65% 124444-66560 (191004)
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Downavg 63.2¢	$36.93	$49.83	+$12.9	57% 6591-4880 (11471)
wowitsamazing<$100	Downavg 50.7¢	$37.5	$36.6	-$0.9	58% 12531-9183 (21714)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 53¢	$29.91	$34.24	+$14.62	65% 21975-12079 (34054)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 90¢	$22.56	$23.19	+$0.63	64% 39777-22734 (62511)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 68.9¢	$16.77	$16.68	-$0.09	66% 124813-64240 (189053)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 52¢	$15.62	$15.17	-$0.45	58% 50830-36973 (87803)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 72.7¢	$14.51	$13.68	-$0.83	61% 94136-59204 (153340)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 72¢	$8.03	$7.64	-$0.39	52% 89581-84030 (173611)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 24.5¢	$4.95	$4.04	-$0.91	55% 17439-14069 (31508)

aswfadq1555

Down

Invested

$471.67

Value

$402.14

PnL

-$69.53

Record

54%

15215-13117 (28332)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$356.48

Value

$358.05

PnL

+$1.57

Record

58%

37465-26708 (64173)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$265.68

Value

$285.23

PnL

+$19.55

Record

55%

44266-36741 (81007)

Little-big<$100

Down

Invested

$57.5

Value

$57.66

PnL

+$0.16

Record

34%

18574-35577 (54151)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$33.35

Value

$51.15

PnL

+$17.8

Record

65%

124444-66560 (191004)

peepeepoopoo24<$100

Down

Invested

$36.93

Value

$49.83

PnL

+$12.9

Record

57%

6591-4880 (11471)

wowitsamazing<$100

Down

Invested

$37.5

Value

$36.6

PnL

-$0.9

Record

58%

12531-9183 (21714)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$29.91

Value

$34.24

PnL

+$14.62

Record

65%

21975-12079 (34054)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$22.56

Value

$23.19

PnL

+$0.63

Record

64%

39777-22734 (62511)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$16.77

Value

$16.68

PnL

-$0.09

Record

66%

124813-64240 (189053)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$15.62

Value

$15.17

PnL

-$0.45

Record

58%

50830-36973 (87803)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$14.51

Value

$13.68

PnL

-$0.83

Record

61%

94136-59204 (153340)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$8.03

Value

$7.64

PnL

-$0.39

Record

52%

89581-84030 (173611)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.04

PnL

-$0.91

Record

55%

17439-14069 (31508)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.